In recent days, military conflicts along the Thailand-Cambodia border have been ongoing. After several days of tension, US President Trump successfully brokered a ceasefire using high tariffs as leverage, leading to a swift trade agreement between the two countries. Experts point out that this event not only demonstrates the US’s strong intervention in regional affairs using economic leverage but also highlights China’s limited influence in handling conflicts in Southeast Asia. Trump’s actions are seen as reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the region.
In late July, clashes erupted along the Thailand-Cambodia border, resulting in casualties. Last Saturday (26th), Trump personally called the Acting Prime Minister of Thailand, Phumtham Wechayachai, and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, urging an immediate ceasefire.
According to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump explicitly warned during the call that if the conflict continued, the US would halt trade negotiations and impose tariffs of up to 36% on exports from both countries. This warning had an immediate effect, prompting Thailand to change its stance and propose bilateral talks to be held in Malaysia.
On July 28th, under the leadership of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia met in Kuala Lumpur and declared an immediate ceasefire. Just two days later, on July 31st, both parties finalized a trade agreement with the US, avoiding the punitive tariffs that were set to take effect on August 1st.
Trump later stated, “This is a significant peace achievement. We have prevented a war that could have lasted for years and caused the deaths of millions.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also expressed his commitment, alongside President Trump, to immediately end the violence and looked forward to both the Cambodian and Thai governments fully honoring their commitment to cease hostilities.
Despite previous attempts by China and Malaysia to mediate, they were unsuccessful. The Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs had explicitly rejected third-party intervention at that time.
A report by Reuters stated that it was initially driven by the Malaysian Prime Minister, followed by Beijing’s reconciliation proposal. However, it wasn’t until last Saturday (26th) when Trump called the Thai leadership, that Bangkok agreed to hold talks with Cambodia. After 20 hours of diplomatic efforts, Thailand successfully participated in the ceasefire negotiations with Cambodia in Malaysia.
Su Ziyun, Director of the Strategic Resources Department at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, emphasized China’s ineffectiveness in mediating the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, underscoring the limitations of its regional influence. Due to close ties with both Thailand and Cambodia, China found it challenging to align clearly and could only call for peace, demonstrating limited mediation capabilities and weakening its strategic initiative in Southeast Asia.
On July 30th, Thai Prime Minister Phumtham expressed Thailand’s willingness to deepen economic cooperation with the US without mentioning China. The Cambodian Foreign Ministry stated its intention to continue balanced diplomacy with China and the US, showcasing cautious attitudes under pressure to choose sides.
Despite deep cooperation with China, Thailand and Cambodia were compelled to compromise under the pressure of high US tariffs and the ceasefire. Trump’s intervention in Southeast Asian affairs using economic leverage demonstrated the US’s intent to promote regional rebalancing through non-military means.
“Through a dual-track strategy of ‘economic pressure + diplomatic mediation,’ the US is compelling Southeast Asian countries to clearly position themselves between China and the US, breaking the traditional model of ‘economics with China, security with the US,'” stated Zhong Zidong, a Senior Researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
Zhong emphasized that while the Thailand-Cambodia conflict had a limited scale, the handling process revealed that the US’s strategic focus is accelerating towards the Indo-Pacific region. By strengthening cooperation with allies, the US aims to gradually contain China’s influence.
To avoid losing its largest export market, Thailand proposed significant concessions: reducing the trade surplus with the US by 70% within three years, eliminating tariffs on 90% of US imports, and measures to counter third-country capacity transfer. While Cambodia did not disclose specific agreement details, negotiations led by Deputy Prime Minister Son Chanto had made substantial progress.
Reports from Reuters indicate that the Trump administration has expanded its tariff policy across Southeast Asia, exerting strong constraints on countries reliant on the US market. An unnamed ASEAN diplomatic official stated, “The US is redefining regional cooperation rules through economic means, and countries are feeling the pressure to choose sides.”
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Trump team is considering extending this “tariff diplomacy” model to more conflict regions as an alternative to traditional military intervention. US officials revealed that this approach is cost-effective, yields faster results, and advances US trade interests simultaneously.
In the latest announcement, the US State Department declared on July 31st that they would host a US-ASEAN economic and trade forum in Bangkok next month, inviting Thai and Cambodian leaders to further consolidate US economic influence in Southeast Asia.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security, expressed that Trump’s actions showcased the US’s “composite intervention capability” through military deterrence, tariff pressure, and diplomatic mediation, swiftly resolving conflicts and reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
The Indo-Pacific region, due to its proximity to China and the South China Sea, has always been a battleground for major powers. Shen Mingshi noted that if the US further expands its influence over Northeast ASEAN countries, it would encircle China on land beyond the “first island chain.”
Shen stated that in recent years, China has made progress in Southeast Asia through infrastructure investments and “charm offensives,” but its resources are limited due to economic slowdown and internal pressures. Trump’s use of “immediate economic incentives” as leverage aligns precisely with the stability of Southeast Asian countries’ export and foreign investment priorities.
In conclusion, while the Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire may alleviate local conflicts, the geopolitical changes it triggered will continue to ferment. The Indo-Pacific region is becoming a new stage for US-China competition, and Southeast Asian countries must make clearer choices between geopolitical security and economic interests. Trump’s actions add another accomplishment to his “America First” strategy and set the stage for significant regional changes.