Recently in Taiwan, over 100 Chinese Communist Party balloons have been discovered invading the airspace above the Taiwan Strait, flying at altitudes lower than regular meteorological balloons. Experts believe that from the period before the Republic of China’s presidential election in January to President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20, the Chinese Communist Party used balloon invasions as one of the unconventional warfare means to infiltrate Taiwan for three reasons.
According to a report by Reuters, from December 2023 to April 2024, there were 8 days when more than 4 balloons were detected. During this period, a total of over 100 balloons were found, flying at altitudes ranging from 3,353 meters to 11,582 meters, with an average altitude of 6,795 meters, significantly lower than standard meteorological balloons. The U.S. National Weather Service stated that meteorological balloons typically fly at altitudes exceeding 34,800 meters.
Political commentator Lawyer Chen Yishen told Dajiyuan that from December last year to the present, the number of Chinese Communist Party balloons invading the Taiwan Strait has surpassed 100. He analyzed that the Chinese Communist Party’s sending of these balloons to harass Taiwan may have three purposes:
Firstly, the Chinese Communist Party aims to increase the cost and harassment on Taiwan’s defense. Since the party’s balloons fly at such low altitudes with small volumes, it would be more challenging for the Taiwanese military’s air defense radar to detect them, thereby increasing pressure on Taiwan’s defense.
Secondly, faced with the continuous harassment from these Chinese Communist Party balloons, as well as provocative activities from Chinese military aircraft and vessels – such as the recent announcement by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense on April 28 that Chinese military aircraft were only about 37 nautical miles from Keelung, with Taiwan’s territorial waters starting at 24 nautical miles, and the intrusion by Chinese Coast Guard ships around the Kinmen-Xiamen area using grey zone tactics – they are attempting to sow fear and tension among the Taiwanese people. Without proactive responses from the government, it may lead to a loss of confidence in the Taiwan government among the population. He explained that unrestricted warfare involves using unexpected methods in unexpected places to create chaos in the enemy.
Thirdly, the Chinese Communist Party may be actively preparing for potential conflict and gathering meteorological data from Taiwan, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and seasonal wind patterns, in preparation for any future conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan cannot underestimate the provocative actions of the Chinese Communist Party. Although the Chinese Communist Party may not win a war in the Taiwan Strait, caution is advised regarding the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s intentions, especially considering Russian President Putin’s misjudgment in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Xi Jinping has not abandoned the idea of using force against Taiwan.
President-elect Lai Ching-te and Vice President-elect Xiao Meiqin will assume office on May 20. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on the 17th that “Foreign dignitaries from 73 delegations comprising nearly 700 people are coming to Taiwan to express congratulations to our country’s 16th President and Vice President on their inauguration.” Among the visiting delegations attending the inauguration ceremony, there are 8 heads of state delegations, 1 vice-presidential delegation, 1 foreign minister delegation, and 2 special envoy delegations. In addition, there are congratulatory delegations from non-diplomatic allies such as the United States, Canada, and Singapore, as well as members of the European Parliament’s Taiwan Friendship group, parliamentarians from the UK, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, among others.
Chen Yishen emphasized that internationally, many democratic countries and friends of the Republic of China hope to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. The United States is assisting Taiwan in its defense preparations, aiming to deter Chinese Communist Party military actions as much as possible. However, the Chinese Communist Party continues to exert pressure on Taiwan, using means such as the invasion of Chinese Communist Party balloons to test Taiwan’s government’s limits and the people’s determination to defend their homeland.
Chen Yishen warned that the global trend is shifting against the Chinese Communist Party, and Taiwanese people need to wake up. However, a significant portion of the Taiwanese population still holds a dangerous belief in the peace promoted by the Chinese Communist Party. Although Taiwan wishes to maintain the status quo, if it succumbs to Chinese Communist Party-induced divisions, it may introduce more variables in defending the Taiwan Strait. There are legislators in Taiwan who push for loosening national security regulations, raising concerns about potential motives that may unintentionally alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, which is an undesirable situation.
He stressed that the new form of warfare between the two sides has been ongoing for a while and involves various tactics, not just traditional military conflicts. This includes cyberattacks by the Chinese Communist Party, infiltration into Taiwan, social divisions, cultivating local collaborators, as well as military threats and economic pressures, all of which constitute unrestricted warfare. However, due to prolonged psychological warfare and military coercion by the Chinese Communist Party, many Taiwanese have become numb, which is a concerning aspect that requires vigilance.
“Taiwan’s government must consider strategies to counter this threat,” said Chen Yishen, noting that the low altitude of the Chinese Communist Party balloons poses a risk; in the event of a collision with civilian aircraft, such as being sucked into the engines, it could lead to a crash, with the Chinese Communist Party possibly trying to shift blame to Taiwan’s civilian aircraft. He urged the Taiwanese government to explain the Chinese Communist Party’s threats to the international community, through continuous media coverage or reminders by experts. Most importantly, people should be vigilant against the infiltration threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party and avoid succumbing to excessive panic induced by cognitive warfare.
Finally, Chen Yishen mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party has been pressuring and threatening Taiwan before President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration, and such pressure tactics are likely to continue after his inauguration on May 20. He hopes the government will promote more civil defense awareness, as the lack of a civil defense concept against the Chinese Communist Party is evident among the public. Despite the Taiwan Strait being peaceful for over seventy years, “our determination to defend our homeland is not strong enough.” Presently, civil organizations are taking the lead in promoting civil defense, along with training in disaster relief and basic first aid skills, and some shooting training. He encourages people to actively participate if they have the time and willingness.