On August 22, 2024, on the occasion of the 120th anniversary of the birth of the late Chinese Communist Party leader Deng Xiaoping, the CCP authorities commemorated the event in a high-profile manner. Ethnic Chinese scholars who were once part of the system analyzed that the current political situation in China is completely different from before. Not only has the CCP lost popular support, but the entire bureaucracy is also adopting a passive attitude, with rumors swirling everywhere, reflecting a significant decline in the authority and influence of the party leadership.
August 22 marks Deng Xiaoping’s birthday, and CCP leader Xi Jinping delivered a speech at a commemorative symposium celebrating Deng Xiaoping’s birthday. In addition to the official CCP writings praising Deng Xiaoping, on August 19, the Beijing military also held a theoretical seminar as part of commemorative activities. A few days earlier, mainland China also issued commemorative stamps of Deng Xiaoping and a new book titled “Deng Xiaoping’s Reform Thinking and Its Practical Significance.” Furthermore, the movie “Deng Xiaoping’s Small Path” began screening in mainland China on the 22nd. These activities by the CCP authorities are seen by the outside world as a high-profile commemoration of Deng Xiaoping.
Gong Xiangsheng, deputy researcher at the Institute of Chinese Communist Party Political-Military and Operational Concepts at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense, told Dajiyuan that given Deng Xiaoping’s historical status, it is natural for the commemoration of every tenth anniversary to be elevated in significance.
Wu Zuolai, former deputy director of the Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Arts, president of the Literary Theory and Criticism Magazine, and a scholar in the United States, also told Dajiyuan on August 22 that as a senior member of the CCP, Deng Xiaoping receives regular commemorations every ten years, such as on the 100th and 110th anniversaries.
“Wu Zuolai emphasized that within the system, people are hoping to follow Deng Xiaoping’s path of reform and opening up, whether for reasons of national interest or personal gain. ‘For public reasons, the prevailing trend in the country is towards a market economy, which cannot be changed. For private reasons, economic development benefits everyone.’
“Now, those who are writing articles praising Deng Xiaoping’s high-profile commemorations inwardly aim to integrate Xi Jinping into Deng Xiaoping’s policy direction, continuing down the path of reform and opening up.”
He stressed that because of this, “Some people say that Xi Jinping is just putting on a show, brandishing Deng Xiaoping’s banner, but in reality, he is still pushing his authoritarian, socialist path.'”
Wu Zuolai pointed to an article in the party media just before the Third Plenary Session extolling Xi Jinping as a reformer being swiftly taken down as evidence. “This article characterizes Xi Jinping as another great reformer following Deng Xiaoping, but Xi is not willing to be seen in the same light as Deng Xiaoping. He views Deng Xiaoping as having brought chaos, corruption, and wealth disparity to society.”
He emphasized, “Xi Jinping’s reverse reform is a retrogressive, anti-market, anti-economic liberalization that has resulted in significant failures. Over the past decade, the entire Chinese economy has been in ruins, with disastrous consequences.”
He further believes that Xi Jinping seeks to control everything, even preparing to develop rural cooperatives. “Further development of rural collective economies, the promotion of large-scale agriculture, replacing village branches with party branches, completely using the party to control society, turning China into a larger version of North Korea.”
Gong Xiangsheng believes that when Xi advocates for openness, it holds a different significance from Deng’s era. While Deng started from scratch, for Xi to deepen openness, he must relinquish some state control, which will touch upon delicate issues in China and present a dilemma.
After the Third Plenary Session, during the Beidaihe conference, Xi Jinping remained out of the public eye for three weeks, triggering a flurry of rumors in the CCP political arena. It wasn’t until the meeting between the leader of the Communist Party of Vietnam and Xi Jinping that external speculations subsided.
However, the CCP media delayed the release of clear images and videos of the meeting between the two leaders, once again fueling global speculation and discussion. Many media reports and comments suggest that the CCP media may have manipulated images of Xi Jinping.
Despite Xi Jinping appearing in public to dispel rumors, “this phenomenon still has a significant impact on him. Because during this time, a large number of rumors have spread internally, with the entire society feeling that he is about to step down or is seriously ill and may not recover. In mainland China, no one is controlling these rumors, and no one is being arrested for spreading them.”
During this time, retired senior CCP official and retired professor from Renmin University, Leng Jiefu, published an open letter to two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, proposing the establishment of the Chinese Federal Republic for the peaceful “reunification” of Taiwan, calling on the CCP to step down. Reports from multiple sources confirmed that the elderly man faced no significant trouble after publishing the open letter.
Wu Zuolai believes that during this period of Xi Jinping’s absence, his entire court has become ineffective. “There has been a drastic reduction in the propaganda glorifying him personally. Now, even though some people are still accustomed to promoting him, many individuals within the bureaucratic system are either uncooperative, resentful, or hostile towards him. His overall momentum has declined.”
He emphasized that within China, whether in the minds of the people or due to economic or practical reasons, Xi Jinping has fallen out of favor. “In a sense, China has entered the post-Xi Jinping era since the Third Plenary Session. This has dealt a blow in terms of hierarchy and has to be acknowledged.”
He believes, “The critiques from the elderly about him are justifiable; his illness and loss of control for a period of time are undeniable. These things have happened, causing the current chaos for these reasons.”
In Wu Zuolai’s view, the current Chinese military cannot fully cooperate with Xi Jinping. “Whether it’s his external aggressive intentions or military support to Russia in terms of arms imports, even involving drastic measures in the Taiwan Strait, the military cannot cooperate with him. In politics, economy, and military terms, all these forces are unable to align with him. They are not resisting him, but they are unable to cooperate with him. The entire bureaucratic system does not interact with him, and this is certain.”
He further stated that the development of Chinese society, the corruption of elite groups, is driven by self-interest. “Now that the thrust of economic development is weak, society has lost its momentum. Therefore, the situation is completely different now; whether it’s the Third Plenary Session or the Beidaihe conference, no matter how they try to promote it, it doesn’t work anymore. Both Xi and his team show signs of weariness and have suffered a degradation.”