The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics released a report on September 28th regarding the statistics on people’s livelihood for the “14th Five-Year Plan” (2021-2025). The report stated that in 2024, the population aged 16 to 59, which is the labor force age group, numbered 857.98 million, accounting for 60.9% of the total population. It claimed that “the advantages of scale and demographic dividend still exist.” However, analysts believe that the actual unemployment rate in China continues to rise, with more people becoming jobless, indicating that the so-called demographic dividend of the labor force cannot mask the high number of unemployed people.
Despite the official stance of the Chinese Communist Party that the demographic dividend has not completely disappeared, the pressure on employment has become increasingly intense. According to data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, the urban unemployment rates for labor force aged 16-24, 25-29, and 30-59 in July were recorded at 17.8%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively. In August, the urban unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group reached 18.9%, showing an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous month. The official statement emphasized that “the advantages of scale and demographic dividend still exist.”
A senior executive of a foreign company in mainland China, using the pseudonym Cheng Yuan, told Dajiyuan that the demographic dividend and unemployment are interrelated. While the demographic dividend can provide a “potential labor force,” it does not necessarily translate into “actual employment,” leading to a situation where “unemployment precedes dividend depletion.” Cheng Yuan highlighted the current difficulty for enterprises in operating, especially with the departure of foreign investments, resulting in a surplus of labor force and a significant number of unemployed individuals struggling to find jobs.
Cheng Yuan mentioned, “Previously, foreign companies invested in China because of the low labor costs and substantial profits from exports. However, after the outbreak of the trade war, exports faced challenges, leading to overcapacity issues domestically. Many foreign companies chose to withdraw to avoid risks.” He emphasized that the economic challenges faced by China, including trade risks and geopolitical conflicts, have made the market insecure for foreign investors.
The total population in China is gradually decreasing, as per the data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. By the end of 2024, the total population of China was 1.408 billion, a reduction of 1.39 million compared to the end of 2023.
A cultural industry insider in mainland China, using the alias Long Yan, expressed skepticism towards the labor force statistics, deeming them as a show for outsiders, aiming to deceive the domestic population into believing that China remains an economic powerhouse. Long Yan criticized the deceptive practices, indicating that the positive portrayals of various sectors like agriculture, industry, military, economy, politics, and culture are fabricated and unreliable representations.
Long Yan further criticized the ever-changing policies of the Chinese Communist Party, where power overrides the law, contrasting with Western countries where the rule of law usually takes precedence. He mentioned, “Foreign investors cannot adapt to the CCP’s constantly shifting policies and overwhelming control, leading to their decisions to withdraw from the market.” Long Yan condemned the authoritarian regime for its lack of transparency and the grim reality faced by university graduates struggling to secure employment opportunities.
He concluded, “This is an evil regime, an untrustworthy government that is shamelessly dirty, beyond description in words.”