In the early morning of June 18, a suspected Type 094 strategic nuclear submarine of the Chinese military was rare caught on camera floating on the surface of the Taiwan Strait by Taiwanese fishermen. Military experts analyzed that the appearance of this nuclear submarine could be to create a nuclear threat effect or possibly to avoid military exercises conducted by the United States and its allies, fearing that the submarine’s acoustic signature may be compromised. However, this action further exposes the corridor of Chinese military deployment.
According to the Taiwanese media “Liberty Times” report on June 18, around 5 a.m. that day, a fisherman in Penghu witnessed and recorded a large Chinese military submarine surfacing in the Taiwan Strait near the median line, departing under the escort of following Chinese military surface vessels. The recorded location showed the submarine floating at approximately North Latitude 24 degrees, East Longitude 118 degrees, about west of the median line in the Taiwan Strait in a sea depth of 45 meters.
Based on the analysis of military enthusiasts and experts, this submarine is likely the Chinese Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine.
The day after the incident (June 19) marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Chinese submarine force. Meanwhile, a multinational force led by the United States is conducting joint exercises in the Philippine Sea. The surfacing of this Chinese submarine has triggered various interpretations and speculations.
Taiwan’s Minister of National Defense, Chiu Kuo-cheng, confirmed the incident on the morning of June 18 in the legislature and stated that the Taiwanese military has obtained relevant information through monitoring means. However, due to security reasons, he declined to disclose further details.
Retired Major General and former dean of the National Defense University’s Political Warfare College, Yu Zongji, suggested in an interview that the average depth of the Taiwan Strait is less than 100 meters, making it theoretically unsuitable for large submarines like the Chinese one to operate in the area. Taiwan’s anti-submarine reconnaissance capability is second only to Japan in Southeast Asia, utilizing P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft at the same level as the United States and Japan, with 12 aircraft guarding the waters around Taiwan daily. Therefore, Taiwan’s surrounding waters are well monitored, with the decision on whether to disclose this information resting solely with the Taiwanese military.
Taiwan’s P-3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft squadron is stationed at the Pingtung Air Base in southern Taiwan, providing easy access to the southern Taiwan Strait area.
Yu Zongji believes that Taiwan’s military authorities have a spectrum of information concerning Chinese nuclear submarines, which is not unfounded. Due to the shallow waters in the Taiwan Strait where large submarines cannot hide, it would be very dangerous if they navigate underwater through this area.
Nuclear-powered submarines can operate underwater for months at a time, and the secretive missions of ballistic missile submarines mean they rarely surface.
Yu Zongji suggests that the Chinese naval strategy likely aims to use the surfacing of submarines as a means to deter the United States, balance international opinion, and amplify military deterrence within Taiwan.
Associate Professor Chen Shimin of the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University told Dajiyuan that it is most likely that the Chinese nuclear submarine might have wanted to avoid ongoing military exercises by the United States and its allies on the east coast of Taiwan and in the Philippine Sea, hence choosing to go north via the Taiwan Strait.
“It is mainly to prevent the submarine’s acoustic signature from being detected by the United States and Japan. However, because the Taiwan Strait is a shallow area, the submarine simply surfaced. By doing so, the acoustic signature of the submarine may be disrupted by the sound of waves or navigation, preventing detection by Taiwan, the United States, or Japan.”
As for claims that the Chinese submarine encountered technical issues and had to surface, Chen Shimin believes this possibility is less likely.
Previously, some suggested that the incident was a political demonstration in response to President Lai Ching-te’s speech at the Army Officer School on June 16. Chen Shimin considers the likelihood of a political demonstration to be small, as the Chinese submarine remained to the west of the median line in the Taiwan Strait and did not cross to the east.
Su Ziyun, director of the Strategic and Resources Division at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Research, stated that the Taiwan Strait has always been one of the main routes for the Chinese Northern and Southern fleets, acting as a corridor for Chinese military deployment, which was further exposed by this incident.
“Since 2019, Chinese submarines have been spotted four times ‘floating’ in the Taiwan Strait. Particularly this time and in July last year, the submarines were photographed in exactly the same location at North Latitude 24 degrees, East Longitude 118 degrees. This reflects that when the Chinese submarine force moves north and south, there may be a secure corridor. By hugging the coast, they can receive protection and reduce the probability of foreign forces collecting their underwater acoustic signatures, effectively revealing the invisible corridor of submarine navigation.”
On November 29, 2021, a photo taken by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 2 satellite showed a Chinese naval nuclear-powered strategic submarine floating through the Taiwan Strait, accompanied by a surface vessel.
H. I. Sutton, a columnist for the U.S. Naval Institute (USNI), pointed out that the vessel was suspected to be a Chinese Navy Type 094 nuclear submarine that departed from the Yalong Bay submarine base in Hainan Island heading north. However, he suggested that the submarine might be returning to the Bohai Shipyard for repairs.
Su Ziyun told Dajiyuan that Chinese submarines require annual maintenance, and on June 19, the 70th anniversary of the Chinese submarine force, the submarine may have appeared at this time due to maintenance requirements and celebratory needs.
The Taiwan Strait is an important international waterway, but its narrowest point is only 180 kilometers wide. With tensions in the Taiwan Strait increasing, the number of Chinese vessels entering the Taiwan Strait is rising. Meanwhile, the United States and other allied countries are also sending ships through the Taiwan Strait to express support for freedom of navigation in international waters.
Su Ziyun believes that China’s military deterrence against Taiwan will continue to increase.
“This trend will not change, but not every action needs to be exaggerated. The Taiwan Strait is international waters where U.S. and other allied vessels come and go, and this submarine was sailing near the Chinese coast, posing basically no direct threat,” he said.