The Chinese Coast Guard used the pretext of maintaining order to justify the crossing of the median line in the Taiwan Strait with two coast guard ships and one rescue ship, sparking international discussions on Beijing’s adoption of gray zone tactics. Experts have pointed out that Taiwan not only needs to strengthen relevant legislation to draw a clear line for the Chinese Communist Party but also needs to enhance policy coordination with ally the United States.
A Chinese fishing boat, the “Minlong Fishing Vessel 60877,” sank after a collision near Dongqing Island, Kinmen, at 4:33 a.m. on the 17th. Taiwan’s Coast Guard and Chinese authorities conducted joint search and rescue efforts.
According to a report by China’s state-run media CCTV, a large number of fishing boats entered the Taiwan Strait after China’s fishing moratorium ended on the 16th, increasing the risk of collision with merchant ships. The Ministry of Transport of China implemented the “2024 Taiwan Strait Maritime Law Enforcement Operation” from the 17th to the 18th, carrying out a 30.5-hour operation, claiming that the main tasks included patrolling the central sea area of the Taiwan Strait, “implementing traffic organization and control, and inspecting passing vessels.”
Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council Coast Guard Administration issued a press release on the 18th stating that two Chinese coast guard vessels and one rescue ship briefly crossed the median line of the strait, 3.2 nautical miles from the center, at 12:25 p.m. on the 17th and then sailed towards mainland China, without entering Taiwan’s restricted waters. The Coast Guard cooperated with allied forces throughout to monitor the movements of the three Chinese government vessels.
Taiwanese judge Xu Kaijie, in an interview, stated that the policy towards Taiwan as outlined in the U.S. “Taiwan Relations Act” is based on determining Taiwan’s future through peaceful means, providing enough flexibility to support U.S. assistance to Taiwan in self-defense. Xu emphasized the urgency for Taiwan to strengthen related legislation and establish a team with expertise in international law to formulate comprehensive rules of engagement, transforming from a passive to an active stance to prevent China from gaining strategic advantages through similar actions in the future.
Xu Kaijie stressed the importance of Taiwan setting clear boundaries and being prepared to face provocations from Beijing, indicating that failure to establish these boundaries could lead to risky situations. He emphasized that Taiwan, along with its allies, must determine and defend these boundaries to avoid China testing and setting its own limits through continual provocations.
Furthermore, Xu mentioned the necessity for Taiwan to enhance related legislation in order to establish rules of engagement and guide enforcement, making it a top priority to respond to Beijing’s gray zone activities. He suggested that the best approach would be for Taiwan to have a guideline-based legislation granting the Ministry of National Defense or the Coast Guard the authority to formulate confidential details for enforcement.
Previously, Ivan Kanapathy, former director of the National Security Council at the White House, warned that if Beijing chooses to invade Taiwan in 2027, the gray zone tactics may be employed to achieve this goal by first occupying Taiwan’s outlying islands to create a “fait accompli.” He pointed out that neither the 1954 U.S.-Taiwan Mutual Defense Pact nor the “Taiwan Relations Act” mentions Taiwan’s outlying islands, making it difficult for the U.S. to intervene based on these agreements.
Regarding the responses to Beijing’s gray zone actions, Taiwan and its ally the U.S. still face limitations in policies, according to Xu Kaijie. Without proactive measures, China could establish more operational areas in the waters or airspace around Taiwan, potentially turning current discussions on gray zone areas into areas of Chinese military activities. Hence, Taiwan and its allies should strengthen information exchange, establish a consensus on responding to China’s gray zone actions, and prepare for various possible scenarios early on.
Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), suggested that Taiwan and the U.S. need to focus on formulating strategies to counter the threats posed by gray zone activities. She emphasized the need for cautious responses to prevent escalating regional tensions while effectively addressing the security threats posed by China to Taiwan.
Gray zone tactics refer to a series of low-intensity but aggressive actions that are usually insufficient to trigger direct military conflicts but can gradually alter the status quo. Denny Roy, a China expert at the East-West Center, highlighted several instances of gray zone actions by China, such as using civilian ships to occupy disputed islands in the South China Sea and extracting sand on islands controlled by Taiwan.