As the Arctic climate warms, the Chinese Communist Party’s attention to the Arctic continues to escalate. Recently, the Chinese Coast Guard was reported to have entered the Arctic Ocean for the first time, sparking skepticism in the West about its ambitions in the Arctic.
On October 1, the US Coast Guard announced the discovery of four Russian border guard ships and Chinese Coast Guard vessels in the Bering Sea, marking the northernmost location the US Coast Guard has observed Chinese vessels to date.
The next day, the Chinese Coast Guard claimed on social media that the operation was part of a joint patrol with Russia, stating that it was the first time Chinese Coast Guard ships had entered the Arctic Ocean region.
There are differing statements between the US and China. Yeh Yunhu, Secretary-General of the Taiwan Chinese Association of Maritime Patrol and professor at the Central Police University’s Maritime Police Department, stated that while the Chinese Coast Guard claimed to have entered the Arctic Ocean, the US Coast Guard only monitored it in the Bering Sea, making the situation unclear.
“Despite more ice melting in the Arctic Ocean, to traverse the colder areas of the Arctic Ocean, icebreakers are still needed. The Chinese Coast Guard must accompany icebreakers or use Russian icebreakers,” he added.
Jiang Xinbiao, Assistant Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Institute of National Defense Studies, told Daji Yuan that China and Russia coordinated patrols through coast guard vessels rather than navies to alleviate concerns about military forces entering the Arctic Ocean. Additionally, it creates an opportunity for the navigation route in the Arctic Ocean.
“They hope to operate this route, so they are taking these actions. However, China is not an Arctic country, so it must cooperate with Russia. At this stage, Russia seeks aid from China, hence they are willing to cooperate.”
The Chinese Coast Guard’s actions in more northern areas than before signify China’s expansion of its Coast Guard into traditional US territorial waters, sending provocative signals to the United States.
In July of this year, US fighter jets intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers in the US Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over Alaska. This unprecedented move highlighted the constantly expanding partnership between Russia and China.
Yeh Yunhu noted that the Chinese Coast Guard and military are under the Central Military Commission, essentially serving dual purposes. China has a pattern where wherever the Chinese Navy goes, the Coast Guard follows. Similarly, in the waters near Alaska, Chinese military presence was observed, followed shortly by the Chinese Coast Guard projecting into these high-latitude regions. This pattern is also evident in Taiwan, where Chinese ships conduct drills in the East.
“The ultimate purpose, I believe, is more symbolic. Currently, China always tests the waters first through public opinion, gauging reactions before declaring their presence.”
Yeh Yunhu emphasized that the main goal is to establish navigational conventions in the Arctic, emphasizing its importance as a vital shipping route. Additionally, this demonstrates China’s capability to project the Coast Guard into these regions.
With the Arctic’s climate warming, China’s focus on the Arctic has continuously increased since 2007, with three icebreakers currently in operation. From 2000 to 2024, the proportion of Chinese scientists’ papers related to the Arctic has increased fivefold, raising questions about China’s Arctic ambitions.
In January 2018, China officially released its first “Arctic Policy White Paper,” claiming to be a “near-Arctic state” geographically, despite the northernmost point of mainland China in Heilongjiang Province being over 1,400 kilometers away from the Arctic Circle. The latitude of Harbin is roughly equivalent to that of Venice, Italy.
The White Paper mentions the “Ice Silk Road,” a route through the Arctic that can transport goods from Shanghai to Hamburg in just 18 days, compared to about 35 days via the Suez Canal. The Arctic route is currently navigable only in summer and autumn.
Since China Ocean Shipping Company’s first passage through the Arctic route in 2013, they have dispatched 26 vessels for 56 voyages in eight years, with 14 voyages in 2021 alone. However, these voyages ceased after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Jiang Xinbiao stated that in the US-China strategic competition, the Arctic route offers shorter distances for Chinese maritime traffic, leading to significant cost reductions. The Arctic route is relatively straightforward and less hazardous, making China eager to operate it whenever possible.
“Furthermore, from a military perspective, if nuclear-powered submarines can hide under the Arctic Ocean, their ballistic missiles can reach any point globally much more quickly. Given the opportunity, they would deploy there for maintaining security and eventually establish escort forces.”
Yeh Yunhu stated that China has long been eyeing the Arctic, portraying themselves as a “near-Arctic state” and even claiming a geographical disadvantage in the Law of the Sea, asserting territorial rights in the Arctic. In addition to the exclusive economic zones of coastal states, there is a large ice area in the Arctic that is one of the few remaining public lands worldwide. China is attempting to compete for it.
“As 70% of Chinese trade relies on maritime routes, the increasing ice melt in the Arctic means there may be new routes emerging alongside the Northeast and Northwest Passages. In this context, benefits in navigation can be anticipated directly. Apart from sailing interests, there is also the potential for resource development, such as natural gas, oil, and methane hydrates. Can China also get a share in the future?”
In July of this year, the US Department of Defense issued its first Arctic strategy update in five years, warning that “Russia, isolated due to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is increasingly relying on China for financing its energy export infrastructure in the Arctic region,” and that China and Russia are carrying out an increasing number of collaborations in the Arctic, potentially “altering the stability and threat situation in the Arctic.”
In the joint statement issued by China and Russia in February 2022, the Arctic was mentioned for the first time, with both sides agreeing to strengthen practical cooperation continually to promote the sustainable development of the Arctic. During Putin’s visit to Beijing in May 2022, the two countries pledged to “turn the Arctic route into an important international transport corridor.”
China is also developing its dual-use military-civilian capabilities in the Arctic, enhancing its ability to threaten the United States and its NATO allies while diverting attention from the Indian-Pacific region.
Jiang Xinbiao pointed out the deep-rooted mutual distrust between Russia and China. In June 2020, Moscow accused one of its top Arctic scientists, Valery Mitko, of engaging in espionage activities for Beijing.
So far, joint exercises between China and Russia have been mainly fixed and demonstrative, signaling more than fostering ongoing practical interoperability, indicating a lack of trust between the two countries.
Yeh Yunhu noted that for China to project military power into the Arctic, collaboration with Russia is essential. However, each side has its own agenda, and there is a considerable element of bargaining involved. Essentially, Russia’s naval cooperation with the People’s Liberation Army focuses primarily on patrolling around Japan or even near Taiwan, which is aimed at the US and its allies, demonstrating an alliance to counter adversarial forces.
“To what extent can they truly cooperate? Are they real ‘ironclad brothers’? That remains a question mark,” he said.
The Arctic’s rising temperatures are gradually bringing new possibilities for transportation, but geopolitics are rapidly changing the region.
The Ukraine war has intensified Western concerns over China’s involvement in any major Arctic projects. While China claims neutrality, its “unconditional” friendship with Russia provides substantial support to Russia’s defense industry.
The war in Ukraine has frozen the activities of the Arctic Council, and currently, all member countries of the Arctic Council, besides Russia, are NATO members.
Russia’s power in the Arctic region is weakening, leading to obvious setbacks for China. Mainland scholars opined that the previous balance in the Arctic has been disrupted, with the scales tilting towards Western countries. They highlighted that China’s image in the region faces “significant risks of decline.”
Chinese state-owned enterprises have attempted to purchase Arctic assets several times, including investing in a Greenland airport, rare earth mines, and a gold mine in Canada, all unsuccessfully.
Currently, Canada is collaborating with Nordic countries to establish a new Arctic security alliance, excluding Russia, and provide a coordinated platform for defense, intelligence, and cyber threats.
The Chinese government had hoped to develop China’s port of Hulkenes in Norway’s ice-free port of Hammerfest into a transit point on the Arctic route, with numerous Chinese companies showing substantial investment interest. However, the Norwegian government believes that without clear frameworks to safeguard national security, they will not open up to Chinese enterprises.
Yeh Yunhu emphasized that under Xi Jinping’s strategy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, China aims to challenge the existing international order. China’s engagemnent in the Arctic essentially signals to the international community that they should share benefits in the Arctic Ocean, inevitably provoking reactions from NATO, the US, and Canada.
Jiang Xinbiao stated that cooperation between Russia and China will trigger alerts from countries like the US and Canada, escalating a situation akin to confrontation in the Arctic.
“These countries may organize themselves to confront a joint cruise action by China and Russia. While it may not happen this year, perhaps in the coming spring or summer, the US, Canada, and other Arctic nations will likely unite to form a fleet for a joint patrol against China and Russia.”