China’s self-sufficiency in food is decreasing, with a high dependence on a few countries for imports, which has become a major weakness for the Chinese Communist Party. Recently, a group of high-ranking officials in the agriculture sector have been falling from power. Among them is the former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, who previously served as a special envoy for Xi Jinping.
Over the past month since early April, at least 7 high-ranking CCP officials related to “agriculture” have been removed from their positions. The reasons for their downfall have been officially stated by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection as being “suspected of serious violations of discipline and law,” without further elaboration.
Among the fallen officials are two central-level officials: Tang Renjian, Secretary of the CCP Committee and Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, announced under investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection on May 18; and Lou Wenlong, former member of the Party Committee and Vice President of the Agricultural Bank of China, officially under investigation on May 16.
Other officials removed from power include: senior expert Liu Zhihong from the Credit Card Center of the Agricultural Bank of China, Li Guang, former General Manager of the Customer Department Three of the China Agricultural Development Bank, Yuan Haowu, General Manager of Zhonghe Ecological Agriculture Technology Co., Ltd., financial director Huo Xi of Sinograin Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd., and Lu Chuancai, former Director of China Agricultural Development Bank at level one.
Zhou Zheng, former member of the Party Committee and Deputy General Manager of COFCO Group, was expelled from the party by the CCP on May 9.
Previously, on the same day, two separate inspection teams from the CCP Central Committee were stationed in two major agricultural institutions. On April 17, the second inspection team of the Central Committee entered the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs; and the tenth inspection team of the Central Committee entered the Agricultural Bank of China.
Tang Renjian, Secretary of the CCP Committee and Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, is the highest-ranking official to fall in this round, and the first central committee member to be officially announced to have fallen after the 20th Congress of the CCP. Unlike other fallen officials, Tang’s case is unique as he was investigated while still in office.
Furthermore, the concern over China’s food supply is heightened by President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on food security and the promotion of a new concept called the “Great Food Vision.” According to an article in the CCP’s official media, People’s Daily, on April 21, Xi stressed the need to establish a “Great Food Vision,” which involves obtaining food from both land and sea to address the food supply issue beyond solely focusing on limited arable land.
These statements raise concerns about whether there are issues with China’s food supply. China is the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 161.964 million tons of food in 2023, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous year, marking the second time since 2021 that imports surpassed 160 million tons. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that the total food production in China in 2023 was 695.41 million tons.
A report from the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences suggests that by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” (2025), China may face a food shortage of around 130 million tons, with a grain gap of approximately 25 million tons.
Professor Cheng Guoqiang from the College of Agriculture and Rural Development at Renmin University of China provided a set of data in 2022. He stated that China’s food self-sufficiency rate has decreased from 93.6% in 2000 to 65.8% in 2020, a decrease of 27.8%. He predicts that this rate may further drop to 59% by 2030.
Soybeans are the major shortfall in China’s food production. Cheng Guoqiang explained that China’s self-sufficiency rate for soybeans is below 17%. In 2021, China imported 96.51 million tons of soybeans, accounting for 60% of the world’s total soybean exports. Despite the government’s efforts to fill this gap, the deficit continues to grow. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, soybean imports in 2023 reached 99.409 million tons, an 11.4% increase from the previous year.
China not only has a high dependency on food imports but also relies heavily on a few select countries. Based on data from the first 11 months of last year, China mainly relies on Brazil and the United States for soybeans, with 70.7% imported from Brazil and 24.6% from the US. The top three countries from which China imports wheat are Australia, Canada, and the US, all geopolitical rivals of the CCP. For corn imports, the top three countries are Brazil, the US, and Ukraine.
Another concern for the CCP is the fear of disruption in maritime trade routes. The sea route from Brazil to China passes through the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, and then the Strait of Malacca, with the narrowest point being approximately 1.7 miles. This chokepoint is easily blockaded and jointly managed by Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia, countries with close defense ties with the US.
An article on the U.S. Naval Institute website published last year stated that the US could disrupt China’s supply chain in many important maritime chokepoints worldwide. “China’s rulers may not fear any other country, but if they cannot feed their people, they truly worry.”
In January of this year, a political commentator under the pseudonym Sima Pingbang published an article on the internet titled “China’s Food Security in 2024 May Approach the Red Line,” pointing out three other risks facing China’s food supply:
Firstly, most of China’s imported food is controlled by large multinational food trading conglomerates, which also control the majority of production country ports, railways, and 80% of global food trade volume. Behind this lies the risk of international giants monopolizing the market.
Secondly, extreme weather events, be it droughts or floods, heatwaves or severe cold, pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food supply.
Lastly, inflation and fluctuating food prices may lead to even higher food costs. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both countries imposed varying degrees of restrictions on food exports, impacting the global food supply chain and exacerbating the issue of food scarcity.
Against this backdrop, high-ranking agriculture officials in the CCP are being removed from power. Commentators believe that these officials may have been disloyal to Xi Jinping on one hand, and on the other hand, the serious issues surrounding China’s agriculture, rural areas, and farmers have begun to affect the regime’s security, prompting Xi Jinping’s intolerance. Perhaps there is a combination of both factors.
This is concerning as China’s food supply issue continues to attract attention and scrutiny, given its implications both domestically and internationally.