On September 14th, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Chinese Communist Party showed that in August this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods (social consumption) in China slowed down by 0.6 percentage points compared to July. This data hit the second lowest point since 2024.
According to a report from Caixin on September 14th, the data shows that from a quarter-on-quarter perspective that better reflects the trend, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in August decreased by 0.1%, shifting from growth to decline, which was 0.28 percentage points lower than the previous value.
The year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in August fell below market expectations. A recent survey by Caixin Media of 15 domestic and foreign institutions showed that the average forecast of interviewed economists for the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in August was 2.7%, with a forecast range from 1.0% to 4.0%.
Specifically, the year-on-year growth of retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles was 3.3%, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than July.
Looking at consumption types, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of goods in August decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%; among different goods, in essential goods, the year-on-year growth rate of consumption of grains, oils, and foods in August increased by 0.2 percentage points to 10.1%, while the year-on-year growth rate of consumption of Chinese and Western medicines decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 4.3%; upgraded consumption remained weak, with the year-on-year growth rate of cosmetics consumption flat compared to the previous month, still decreasing by 6.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate of consumption in gold, silver, and jewelry categories decreased by 12%, intensifying to 1.6 percentage points, marking a new low since February 2023.
Additionally, the year-on-year decrease in clothing, footwear, and hat consumption in August was 1.6%, down by 3.6 percentage points; the year-on-year growth rate of consumption of petroleum and products shifted from positive to negative, slowing down by 2 percentage points to -0.4%.
Automobile consumption, which accounts for about 10% of social consumption, saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, a 2.4 percentage points drop from March 2023.
Meanwhile, overall consumption related to real estate remained weak. In August, the year-on-year consumption of construction and decoration materials and furniture decreased by 6.7% and 3.7% respectively, with the decline widening to 4.6 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points.
On the same day, Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, chief economist, and director of the Department of National Economic Aggregate Statistics, stated at a press conference at the State Council Information Office that the ongoing recovery of consumption still faces some constraints, and the confidence and willingness of residents to consume still need to be strengthened.
In response to this, a user named NRAL30 on Caixin’s website commented: “Actually, we have already entered a debt crisis, deflation and weak consumption are signs of a crisis.”