On October 10th, the price of live pigs (Duroc breed) in China dropped by 35.22% compared to the same period last year, and decreased by 14.58% from the previous month, hitting a new low for the year 2025. Particularly concerning is the consecutive three-month decline in the average selling price of live pigs by the top three pig producers, which may force some small and medium-sized businesses to exit the pig farming industry.
According to data from China Pig Farming Network on October 10th, the price of live pigs (Duroc breed) was 11.42 Chinese Yuan per kilogram, marking a significant year-on-year and month-on-month decline. Simultaneously, the average sales prices of live pigs for the three largest listed pig producers in China – Muyuan Shares, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. – also witnessed varying degrees of decrease for three consecutive months.
Reported by the Beijing Business Daily on October 12th, following the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day Golden Week holiday, pork prices did not show signs of recovery. As of October 12th, several listed pig enterprises, including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Shares, and New Hope Liuhe, released briefings on their live pig sales performance in September 2025. The presentations revealed that the average selling price of commercial pigs in September for Muyuan Shares was 12.88 Yuan per kilogram, down 30.94% year-on-year; Wens Foodstuffs’ average price for live pigs was 13.18 Yuan per kilogram, showing a 30.81% year-on-year decrease and a 5.18% month-on-month decline; while New Hope Liuhe’s average selling price for commercial pigs was 12.89 Yuan per kilogram, with a 31.47% annual drop and a 4.80% monthly decline.
The three companies attributed this decline to the changing domestic market conditions, especially the impact of falling pig prices.
Since the Chinese New Year, live pig prices in China have been operating at low levels. From mid-August onwards, the downward trend in pig prices accelerated, with the price continuing to decline in September. Industry insiders believe that the primary reason for the continuous decline in pork prices is the oversupply of live pigs affecting the market dynamics.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the CPC show that as of the end of December 2024, there were 40.78 million sows in inventory nationwide, nearly approaching 105% of the upper limit for green and rational adjustment of production capacity. Considering that it takes around 10 months for the inventory of sows to translate into the market supply of pigs, the industry is currently in a phase of gradually releasing production capacity.
As for when pork prices in China might rebound, industry insiders hold a more pessimistic view.
Zhengxin Futures believes that based on the cyclical analysis of the pig industry’s fundamentals, the pig breeding industry in 2025 has entered a period of pressure, with the duration and decline of this pressure period far from historical average levels, indicating a challenging road ahead.
Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng suggests that the real turning point for pork prices depends on the adjustment of sow inventory, particularly in sow inventory reduction, restoring supply and demand balance. Given the overall surplus supply situation, an anticipated limited increase in prices is expected.
Jiang Han, senior researcher at the Pangutian Research Institute, also noted that considering the current inventory pressure, the inflection point for pork prices is unlikely to occur immediately.
Furthermore, Jiang Han pointed out that with the current prices falling below the cost line of most farming entities at 13-14 Yuan per kilogram, this not only poses a short-term profitability crisis for businesses but also serves as a severe test of the industry’s sustainable economic capabilities. For small and medium-sized breeding households lacking scale advantages and financial hedging capabilities, the current prices have hit the survival bottom line, and some breeders may be forced to exit the market.