According to the official data released by the Chinese government on October 13th, the ongoing US-China trade war has dealt a heavy blow to China’s exports to the US. In September, China’s exports to the US plummeted by 27% compared to the same period last year when measured in US dollars. From January to September, exports to the US decreased by 16.9%.
In contrast, the latest data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that in September, China’s overall exports increased by 8.3% compared to the previous year when calculated in US dollars, surpassing market expectations of 6.6%. Imports also saw a rise of 7.4%, exceeding market expectations of 1.8%. The trade surplus for September stood at $90.45 billion, down from the previous value of $102.33 billion.
From January to September, China’s exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $875.08 billion.
Reuters estimates that in September, China’s trade surplus with the US widened to $22.82 billion while the trade deficit with Russia stood at $2.09 billion, reaching a six-month high. From January to September, China’s cumulative trade surplus with the US amounted to $208.63 billion, while the trade deficit with Russia totaled $16.49 billion.
Breaking down the numbers by country, in September, China’s exports to the US amounted to approximately $34 billion, marking a 27% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to September, exports to the US totaled around $317 billion, reflecting a 16.9% decline year-on-year.
In September, China’s exports to the European Union reached $48 billion, up by 14.1% year-on-year. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Africa also saw substantial increases of 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively, totaling $53.6 billion and $22.3 billion.
From January to September, China’s exports to Africa rose by 28.3% year-on-year, while exports to Russia decreased by 11.3%.
Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, stated that Chinese enterprises are leveraging their cost advantages to explore new markets. Currently, the US accounts for less than 10% of China’s direct exports. With President Trump threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, the pressure on China’s export market is expected to intensify.
On October 10th, President Trump announced a 100% tariff hike on Chinese goods, effective from November 1st. Export controls on critical software will also be implemented on the same day in response to Beijing’s restrictions on crucial minerals. Trump hinted at the possibility of suspending aircraft parts exports to China, citing the need to observe the developments leading up to the enforcement date.
This development serves as a stark reminder that any potential truce in the US-China trade war may be fragile. The continued deterioration of US-China relations has once again raised doubts about the investment value in China.
Reuters reported that Ben Bennett, the Head of Asian Investment Strategy at L&G Asset Management in Hong Kong, remarked, “President Trump’s actions serve as a reminder that the market is fraught with uncertainty.”