In the past four years, over 40,000 kindergartens have closed down in China, with experts attributing this phenomenon to the negative effects of the one-child policy implemented by the Chinese Communist Party.
According to a report by the Financial Times on July 25, the rapid decline in birth rates has had a significant impact on the education system, leading to a one-quarter reduction in the number of kindergartens in China over the past four years and resulting in the closure of tens of thousands of schools nationwide.
Data from the Chinese Ministry of Education shows that from 2020 to 2024, the number of children entering kindergartens in China peaked at 48 million but decreased by 12 million. The number of kindergartens for children aged 3 to 5 also dropped from nearly 295,000 in 2021 to 415,000.
An example of this trend is seen in Zhuang Yanfang, a preschool education practitioner in Jinhua, Zhejiang. Zhuang used to run three kindergartens, but now only manages to keep two barely operational, with the total number of students dropping from thousands to less than 150 between the two locations. To survive, she even started offering infant care services and enrolled babies as young as 10 months old, yet still struggled to fill the classrooms.
“The trend of declining enrollment has become a structural phenomenon within the system and is irreversible,” said Stuart Gietel-Basten, director of the Aging Science Research Center at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and a demographer. He pointed out that the decline in birth rates in China compared to five or ten years ago has been “very drastic.”
“With declining birth rates, there is a significant decrease in the number of children enrolling in kindergartens,” Zhuang Yanfang lamented, estimating that “90% of private kindergartens in this rapidly aging community are struggling to survive.”
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, as of the end of 2022, the national population had decreased by 850,000 from the previous year to 1.4175 billion, with a natural population growth rate of -0.60‰. Census data shows that China has experienced three consecutive years of population decline by 2024, indicating the detrimental effects of the decades-long “one-child policy” that was in place from 1979 until 2016.
Official statistics indicate that the current birth rate is less than half of what it was in 2016 and is projected to continue declining. By the end of 2024, the population aged 0 to 15 had decreased by nearly 240 million, accounting for 17.1% of the total population. Furthermore, it is expected that by 2030, the proportion of the population aged 0 to 14 in China will fall below 15%, entering a phase of severe population decline, which will inevitably lead to significant reductions in early childhood education institutions and primary schools.
“China not only lacks a demographic dividend now but is moving towards a negative one, becoming a major constraint on China’s economic development,” said senior commentator Wang He to Epoch Times, “and this will soon be reflected in all aspects of Chinese society.”
The Chinese Communist Party officially enforced the one-child policy in 1980 and only fully relaxed the policy to allow for two children in 2016 after 35 years of strict implementation. “This policy forcibly disrupted China’s population structure, resulting in low birth rates and an aging population,” Wang He commented.
In 2020, China’s total fertility rate was 1.3, which dropped to 1.09 by 2022. “China is now facing an unprecedentedly low birth rate, posing a fundamental blow to the development of the Chinese nation and its population,” Wang He emphasized.
According to demographic theory, a total fertility rate below 1.5 indicates falling into a “low fertility trap.” The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the number of children born to women of childbearing age and is a key indicator of a country or region’s fertility level.
As of the end of 2023, the population in China aged 65 and above had exceeded 200 million, accounting for approximately 15.4% of the total population. Wang He pointed out that another manifestation of the disrupted population structure is aging. “In a scenario of negative population growth, especially with low birth rates, the distorted population structure leads to a severe lack of long-term development momentum for the Chinese economy, driving it into a sustained contraction,” Wang He stated.
In the 1970s, China began advocating for family planning, with the strict one-child policy officially implemented in 1980. “Deng Xiaoping enforced it forcibly and ruthlessly,” Wang He noted.
In March 2005, local farmers in Linyi, Shandong, complained to human rights activist Chen Guangcheng about forced contraception and arrests of family members. Chen revealed to Time magazine that from March to July, 7,000 people in Yinan County, Shandong Province, were subjected to forced abortions and contraception. He faced strict surveillance from authorities for assisting local farmers in protecting their rights.
An honest police officer from the New Tai City Public Security Bureau in Shandong once shared with an Epoch Times reporter a story about a peasant couple who fled their hometown after expecting a child exceeding the one-child limit, escaping to the Russian border but being captured by family planning officials from New Tai. The pregnant woman was forcibly induced and gave birth prematurely, resulting in the death of both the mother and the baby, who was confirmed to be a boy. The forced implementation of the one-child policy by the Chinese Communist Party spared no one, not even military families, resulting in the loss of two lives.
Driven to despair, Tian Mingjian, a military officer, resorted to shooting military officials enforcing the one-child policy on September 20, 1994. Four officers lost their lives during the gun battle between Tian and the authorities at the Jianguomen Gate, leading to the unfortunate deaths of nearly 20 civilians.
“Prior to the enforcement of the one-child policy by the Chinese Communist Party, China’s birth rates were already declining. Even without the forced family planning aspect, China’s population growth rate would have naturally decreased to a reasonable level,” Wang He stated.
In fact, as early as 1984-1985, during the period of Hu Yaobang, pilot programs allowing for a second child were conducted in rural areas of Yicheng County in Shanxi. Chen Jian, vice chairman of the China Society for Economic Reform Research and consultant at the Beijing Institute of Population Research, mentioned in his research that the implementation of the “two-child policy” in pilot areas across the country lasted more than 20 years, covering over eight million people. This practice demonstrated that under certain conditions, a relatively relaxed two-child policy could achieve lower fertility rates.
“From a practical perspective and the evolution of demographics, the Chinese Communist Party’s family planning policy was unnecessary and wrong. This is an established fact,” Wang He concluded.