In recent years, there has been a wave of kindergarten closures sweeping across China, with an average of two kindergartens shutting down every hour in 2024. Over the five-year period from 2020 to 2024, the number of children enrolled in kindergartens decreased by 12.34 million. The once bustling and lively kindergartens now sit empty and quiet, signaling an unprecedented “kindergarten closure wave” engulfing the entire nation.
According to a recent article titled “Two Kindergartens Disappear Every Hour in China” by the “Photos and Data Department” under Sina News on June 18, the latest statistics from the “2024 National Education Development Statistics Bulletin” revealed that there were a total of 253,300 kindergartens in 2024. This marked a substantial decrease of 21,100 kindergartens compared to the 274,400 reported in the previous year’s statistics, translating to an alarming rate of two kindergartens shutting down silently every hour.
Data analysis done by the Photos and Data Department showed a consistent downward trend in the number of kindergartens nationwide over the past five years. Starting from 2022, there has been a continuous decline in the total number of kindergartens for three consecutive years. In 2022, the country had a total of 289,200 kindergartens, which was 5,610 fewer than the previous year, marking a 1.90% decrease. This was the first time since 2008 that the total number of kindergartens in the country experienced negative growth.
From 2020 to 2024, the number of children enrolled in preschool education witnessed a significant yearly decline, totaling a reduction of 12.34 million children over the five-year period, equating to a decrease of 25.6%. The enrollment numbers of new children admitted to kindergartens also painted a bleak picture, with a decrease of 6.1 million individuals in 2023 compared to 2020, marking a high decline rate of 34%.
The report highlighted that in 2023, there were 149,500 private kindergartens, which decreased to 135,500 by last year, representing a growth rate of -9.36%. In contrast, public kindergartens saw a growth rate of -7.69%. The fundamental reason behind the kindergarten closure wave lies in the gradual decrease of age-appropriate children.
Before 2018, the population distribution remained relatively stable. However, starting in 2018, there was a noticeable decline in the proportion of young children, dropping to 5.74% in 2019 and further decreasing to 5.52% in 2020, signifying an accelerated downward trend.
During the same period, China’s birth rate correspondingly declined from 13.27‰ in 2011 to 6.39‰ in 2023, nearly halving within this timeframe. The steep drop in birth rate began predominantly after 2018, with 2022 seeing a birth rate lower than the death rate, leading to a negative population growth.
The article suggests that the kindergarten closure wave may just be the first domino in a series of monumental shifts in population structure.