China’s March Consumer Data Falls Far Below Previous Levels and Expectations, Demand Still Weak

The latest official data from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shows that in March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.1% year-on-year, falling far short of previous figures and expectations, indicating a sustained weakness in consumer spending.

On April 16, data released by the CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the total retail sales of consumer goods in March reached 3.902 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%. This growth rate was 2.4 percentage points lower than January and February, marking the lowest level since August 2023.

The data also fell below market expectations. A recent survey conducted by Caixin Media on 16 institutions showed that economists had an average prediction of 4.0% for the year-on-year growth of retail sales in March, with a forecast range of 1.0% to 5.3%. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had a median expectation of 4.6% growth in retail sales for March.

Breaking it down by product categories, in March, necessities such as grains, oil, food, traditional Chinese and Western medicine saw year-on-year growth rates increase by 2% and 3.9% to 11% and 5.9% respectively. However, the growth rate for upgraded goods declined, with cosmetics seeing a 2.2% year-on-year growth rate, slowing down by 1.8 percentage points, and the consumption growth rate for gold, silver, and jewelry was 3.2%, also decreasing by 1.8 percentage points.

Regarding consumption related to travel, in March, the growth rate for clothing, shoes, and hats consumption was 3.8%, up by 1.9 percentage points. Petroleum and related products consumption saw a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%, a slow down of 1.5 percentage points.

Furthermore, in the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7% year-on-year, while the retail sales of services increased by 10.0% year-on-year, both lower by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points compared to January and February.

These data points indicate a continuing trend of subdued consumer spending in China, reflecting broader economic challenges facing the country.

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