In recent years, the high-end watch market in China has been experiencing a prolonged downturn. Brands like Rolex, which used to be in high demand and known for their scarcity, are now seeing prices plummet in the second-hand market. The export of Swiss watches to China has also sharply declined, with analysts attributing this trend to shifting investment patterns and a downgrade in consumer spending.
There has been a saying in China, “poor play with cars, rich play with watches,” reflecting how luxury watches have long been a symbol of wealth and status in the country. However, recently, prices of high-end watches have been on a continuous downward trend. In the second-hand market, prices of coveted brands like Rolex have seen significant drops, with the Rolex second-hand index declining by nearly a third from its peak in March 2022 to March 2025, hitting a four-year low.
Popular models like the “Green Gold Di” that used to fetch up to 1.2 million yuan are now selling for just over 400,000 yuan; while the second-hand market price of the “Five Bead Chain Red Blue Circle” has dropped from over 200,000 yuan to around 140,000 yuan.
Similarly, prestigious brands like Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, and Jaeger-LeCoultre are facing pressure as well.
Companies in the industry are also feeling the impact. Swatch Group, which owns renowned watch brands like Omega and Longines, reported a 14.6% year-on-year decrease in net sales to 6.74 billion Swiss francs in 2024, with net profit plunging by over 70% to 220 million Swiss francs. The company’s performance continued to decline in the first half of 2025.
According to data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, exports of Swiss watches to mainland China saw a sudden 26% drop last year, while exports to Hong Kong plummeted by 19%. This indicates a significant shrinkage in the Chinese market for luxury watches.
In a challenging economic environment with uncertain income prospects, China’s middle class, who used to be willing to pay for “respectable” luxury items, are now carefully weighing the cost-benefit ratio of their consumption. An investigation by 36Kr shows that 80% of consumers are gradually becoming less interested in luxury goods, as they perceive them as having low value for money, leading to a decline in frequent purchases.
Reportedly, the contraction in the high-end watch market in mainland China can be attributed to several factors. In the field of luxury watch consumption, high-net-worth individuals have been the main supporters, viewing watches not only as status symbols but also as investment assets.
However, in the context of economic downturn in China, the significant drop in second-hand Rolex prices underscores the weakening resilience of luxury watches against risks. The “2024 China High Net Worth Brand Preferences Report” indicates that affluent individuals now consider gold a better investment choice, diminishing the priority of luxury goods as investment assets.
Research shows that middle-class consumers, who accounted for 25% of luxury goods consumption in the past decade, contributed nearly 40% of sales. Morgan Stanley stated in a research report that most luxury brands still heavily rely on middle-class consumption for growth.
Despite this, a study by a luxury goods research center revealed a 45% decrease in luxury goods consumption among the middle class from 2023 to 2024, not only in the high-end watch sector but also in areas like luxury handbags, cosmetics, etc. The overall market size of the luxury industry in China in 2024 was reported to be lower than that of 2022.
The deteriorating economic environment in recent years has intensified wealth anxiety among the middle class in China. The group that used to prioritize face-saving expenditures is now placing a greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness, shifting the perception of luxury watches from status symbols to burdens.
A noticeable trend in the past two years is the rapid rise of smart watches and some domestic brands occupying spaces once dominated by European luxury watches. The downgrading of consumption has led to a rapid decline in enthusiasm for luxury goods among the middle class.
Since China’s reform and opening up, the primary consumers of luxury watches were the generation that rose through traditional industries, represented by the “coal bosses.” At that time, domestic consumer goods could not keep up with their purchasing power, making European luxury watches like Rolex and Patek Philippe the symbols of their status and investment targets.
Over the past decade, a new affluent generation emerged, consisting mainly of high-level personnel in industries such as the internet and pharmaceuticals. This group is no longer solely inclined towards European watch brands and instead seeks more personalized expressions. Their consumer mentality significantly differs from the previous generation that relied on sudden riches from traditional industries.