Several American media outlets reported on Wednesday (October 29) that China has made its first purchase of American soybeans since the export season started.
According to Reuters, China’s state-owned company COFCO Group has already purchased three shipments of American soybeans, totaling around 180,000 tons, with shipments expected in December and January.
Bloomberg reported that China has bought at least two shipments of American soybeans. Sources revealed that these goods have been scheduled for shipment and could be delivered later this year.
US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollinn retweeted Bloomberg’s report on soybeans on social media on Wednesday, stating, “This purchase just before the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping shows that the US is serious about rebalancing trade, ensuring American producers get the opportunities they deserve, and sending a message that when America leads in agriculture, the world listens.”
Rollinn disclosed on Tuesday that a soybean agreement had been reached between the US and China.
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are scheduled to hold a sideline meeting on Thursday (30th) during the APEC summit in South Korea. Officials from both sides reached a broad framework agreement over the weekend in Malaysia, paving the way for finalizing a trade deal at the upcoming leaders’ meeting. The deal is expected to eliminate many tariffs, fees, and export restrictions that were threatened or implemented in recent weeks.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick remarked that the news of China starting to purchase soybeans is a “positive sign” for the meeting on Thursday. He expressed this view while attending the APEC summit in South Korea.
Scott Bessent, the US representative responsible for the trade negotiations with China and the Treasury Secretary, had previously indicated that China is expected to make a “substantial” purchase of American soybeans soon. The final agreement signed by the leaders could reignite soybean trade valued at over $12 billion in 2024, reopening the channel for American soybean growers to enter the world’s biggest soybean consumption market.
Grain traders remain cautious about how much American soybeans China will actually purchase this export season, which typically runs from October to January. It is still unclear whether China will commit to buying a fixed amount of American soybeans and uncertainties exist regarding the implementation of the agreement.
Chris Nikolaou, General Manager of Australian agricultural marketing company Advantage Grain, stated, “This news is undoubtedly positive, but the market will wait to see the specific details of the agreement.”
“This is a good thing for international demand, producers, and Chinese consumers,” he added.
Beijing had been avoiding buying American soybeans and using them as a bargaining chip in the US-China trade war since the beginning of the export season.
Since President Trump took office, the US and China have engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff battle, leading to high prices for American soybeans for Chinese buyers. However, all Chinese importers have been turning to South America to purchase soybeans, which has never happened before.
Traders noted that American soybeans shipped in September or October were about 80 to 90 cents cheaper per bushel compared to Brazilian soybeans. However, due to Beijing’s 23% tariff on American soybeans, importers’ costs have increased by $2 per bushel.
Chinese companies have imported record amounts of soybeans from South America. However, this shift in purchasing has presented Chinese companies with higher costs and weather-related risks.
Ted Seifried, Chief Market Strategist at Chicago’s Zaner Ag Hedge, stated that China purchased about 45% of the total American soybean exports in 2024, usually meeting around 40% of its annual soybean demand by early October.
Recent government data shows that from January to July this year, before the fall harvest began, US soybean exports to China fell by 39% to 5.9 million tons, with export value declining by 51% to $2.5 billion.
According to Bloomberg, sources mentioned that as Chinese soybean meal prices remain soft, Chinese oilseed crushing enterprises may not find purchasing American soybeans profitable even if tariffs revert back to pre-trade war levels.
Furthermore, due to China’s ongoing economic slowdown, growth in demand for feed and food is limited, which might suppress China’s demand for American soybeans. Additionally, China’s long-term strategic plan to reduce its reliance on the US is expected to remain unchanged.