In various parts of China, local governments have successively released population statistics for the first half of this year, with several cities announcing an increase in the number of births compared to the same period in previous years. Analysts believe that the main reasons for the rise in birth rates include the preference for the Year of the Dragon and the “compensation” effect after the COVID-19 pandemic, but it may only be a temporary trend as birth rates are expected to continue to decline next year.
This year coincides with the Year of the Dragon, and data shows that from 1952 to 2023, the zodiac sign with the highest number of births in China has been the Dragon. Recent data released by various regions across China for the first half of 2024 shows an increase in the number of births in many cities.
According to a report by “Qingdao News Network”, Qingdao in Shandong Province saw a 5.93% increase in the number of registered births in the first six months of this year, with 22,669 births, reversing a two-year downward trend.
The “Hubei Daily” reported that from January 1 to August 14 this year, the number of births in Tianmen City reached 4,232, 431 more than the same period last year, marking the first “reversal from decline to increase” in eight years.
Data from the Baoji Statistics Bureau in Shaanxi Province showed that a total of 3,569 newborns were delivered in hospitals and maternity institutions in the first half of the year, an increase of 346 compared to the same period last year, representing a 10.7% increase. Additionally, according to the “New Express”, births in Guangdong in the first half of the year also increased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year. The most significant increase was seen in Cengtai Town, Bijie City, Guizhou Province, with a 23% year-on-year increase in births in the first half of the year.
However, there are still regions where the number of births continues to decline year by year. The results of a survey released on the official website of the statistical bureau of Nanning City, Guangxi, show that the number of births in 32 local hospitals decreased by 1,490 in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the total number of births for the year will decrease by 2,109 compared to last year, a decline of 11.8%.
In response to this, Chinese independent scholar He Yafu, who studies population issues, wrote on his personal WeChat public account on the 5th, “Considering that the number of marriage registrations nationwide in 2023 was 7.682 million couples, an increase of 847,000 couples from the previous year, this will have a positive impact on the birth rate in 2024. Therefore, I estimate that the number of births this year will exceed last year’s 9.02 million, but the likelihood of exceeding 10 million is not high.”
He pointed out that the slight increase in births in the first half of this year, in addition to being the Year of the Dragon, is mainly due to the compensatory effect of delayed childbirth due to the three-year pandemic. However, it is expected that this temporary rise in birth rates this year will be short-lived, influenced by factors such as “a decrease in the number of marriages registered this year, a decrease in the number of childbearing women, and a general decline in the willingness of the younger generation to have children,” causing birth rates to decline again next year.