On May 18, the average price of live pigs in China hit a new low, ranging from 13.6 to 14.0 yuan per kilogram in Northeast and North China, plunging the market into a “cost defense battle.” Some breeders have been forced to “sell at lower weights.”
According to a report from New Yellow River under the Jinan Daily News Group on May 19, since 2025, the price of live pigs has plummeted by 14%. By early May 2025, except for a brief rebound in early April in northern China, Chinese live pig prices have been below the cost line for 16 consecutive months, with an average off-farm price of only 14.2 yuan per kilogram, a 27.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the CPC show that in the first quarter of 2025, the average losses of breeders nationwide reached around 350 yuan per head, while feed costs surged by 11.6%. Many small and medium-sized breeding farms have fallen into a serious predicament.
The report quoted an expert in animal husbandry who pointed out that the current live pig market has sounded three alarms: first, there is a severe overcapacity, panic-selling by breeders has increased dramatically, with the inventory of large pigs over 200 kilograms skyrocketing by 23% year-on-year, causing a situation of oversupply in the market. Secondly, the price inversion has intensified, with the price gap between standard-weight pigs and fat pigs widening to 1.8 yuan per kilogram. Fat pigs have fallen below the 15 yuan per kilogram mark, and some areas have even seen prices as low as 13.8 yuan per kilogram. Additionally, with weak consumer demand and the off-season for meat due to high temperatures, the demand for pork has not increased but decreased, allowing slaughterhouses to further depress prices, worsening the market situation.
Li Zhiqiang, a large pig farmer from Guangdong with over 20 years of experience, expressed his frustration on social media, saying, “I have been raising pigs for so many years, and I have never seen such difficult times. Low pig prices, high costs, pressure from environmental protection, weak consumption. It feels like pigs have offended someone?” This sentiment has resonated with numerous breeders, garnering over 50,000 comments within just three days.
Many breeders, due to the pressure of “Dragon Boat Festival market,” have overcrowded their large pigs, leading to forced selling at low prices. To cut losses, some breeders even resort to “selling at lower weights,” selling pigs that have not reached the desired weight yet, further disrupting the market and accelerating the price decline. This situation poses a huge survival pressure for small and medium-sized breeders with weaker cost control capabilities.
The report mentioned that this cycle of the pig industry is referred to within the industry as the “longest bear market in history,” having lasted for over two years since early 2023, far exceeding the normal cyclical pattern in the industry of around three years. The main cause of this situation is the structural problems in China’s pig industry.
According to the data released by the Livestock Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the CPC, after the outbreak of African swine fever in China in 2022, a large amount of capital flowed into the industry. By the end of 2023, the national live pig inventory reached 450 million heads, a 9.7% increase from 2022, with overcapacity becoming the primary factor weighing down pig prices.
Furthermore, breeding costs have been on the rise instead of decreasing. According to the China Feed Industry Association, the average price of corn in China in 2024 was 2780 yuan per ton, an 8.2% increase from 2023; the average price of soybean meal was 3450 yuan per ton, a 5.7% year-on-year increase. The rising cost of feed directly leads to an increase in breeding costs. According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average breeding costs for live pigs nationwide in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 11.4% compared to the same period in 2023.
Moreover, the environmental policies of the CPC authorities have also become a heavy burden for pig farmers. According to the emission standards for pollutants from large-scale livestock and poultry farms issued last year by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, by the end of 2025, all large-scale farms must build supporting facilities for manure treatment, with a comprehensive utilization rate of manure reaching over 80%. Industry insiders point out that these new standards directly increase the comprehensive costs of breeders by 3% to 5%.
One netizen, “whh,” believes, “In the past, with retail investors dominating, the cycle was as regular as an alarm clock every three years. Now, the market is dominated by capital operations, and there is no clear cycle anymore.”
“Zhongfengshanren” thinks, “Weak consumption, ordinary people can’t afford meat anymore!”
A netizen from Tencent revealed, “No money left. I used to buy meat every day, now I buy meat only once a week…”