At present, the visit of the Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping to three countries in Europe carries with it the message of dividing Europe. While France suspects American hegemony, Serbia and Hungary are considered as front-line territories for China to infiltrate the European Union. However, compared to five years ago, due to China’s substantial support for the Russian war, the political atmosphere in Europe has changed drastically, making it difficult to resolve the structural division between China and Europe.
Maintaining economic interests with the West, China is also enhancing cooperation with Russia and North Korea to counterbalance against the United States. Experts suggest that the war between Russia and Ukraine has prompted an alliance among China, Russia, and North Korea. However, the closer the relationship between these three countries becomes, the more contradictions become apparent.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China, Russia, and North Korea have increased economic, diplomatic, and security ties, contrary to most countries’ reactions. China has provided Moscow with wartime economic lifelines and diplomatic support, as well as supplying Russia with a large quantity of machinery, drones, engines, missiles, microelectronics, and nitrocellulose technology to maintain Russia’s war machinery.
During a meeting with senior Chinese officials in Beijing on April 26, US Secretary of State Blinken directly pointed out that without China’s support, Russia’s attack on Ukraine would be difficult to sustain.
Since 2012, Putin and Xi have met over 40 times and claimed that their bilateral relationship is “not just like allies, but better than allies,” with “no limits to friendship” and “no restricted areas for cooperation.” Bloomberg reported that after beginning his third term in May, Putin might visit Beijing from May 15 to 16.
The relationship between Russia and North Korea has been stagnant since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the two countries have reestablished ties. In July 2022, North Korea supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine diplomatically. In July 2023, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu visited North Korea, marking the first visit by a Russian defense minister to North Korea since 1991. Shoigu requested Pyongyang to sell more artillery ammunition.
Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia in September 2023 and the subsequent summit with Putin marked a breakthrough in bilateral relations. In January 2024, the North Korean Foreign Ministry announced that the two countries had agreed to further strengthen strategic and tactical cooperation to defend their core interests and establish a “multipolar new international order.”
In April of this year, North Korea’s Minister of Foreign Economic Relations made a rare visit to Iran as part of Pyongyang’s efforts to cultivate diplomatic relations by expanding ties with Moscow.
Also in April, Zhao Leji, the third-ranking official in China, visited North Korea and met with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang, expressing China’s willingness to push for greater development in Sino-North Korean relations in the new situation.
Liu Xiaoxiang, Associate Researcher at the National Security Research Institute of the National Institute for Defense Studies, told Epoch Times that the United States is a common enemy of China, Russia, and North Korea.
He analyzed that at present, for Russia, the war in Ukraine is a top priority and most important issue, with other matters temporarily relegated. North Korea can also alleviate its diplomatic isolation by leveraging Russia, seizing the opportunity to establish ties with Iran. Of course, as conditions for exchanging weapons and ammunition, Russia will inevitably meet North Korea’s demands, allowing it to obtain essential civilian resources or energy, and even requesting the transfer of military technology. Russia has publicly stated that it will provide North Korea with the necessary technology, but the precondition is not to harm Russia.
Liu Xiaoxiang stated that although China currently provides dual-use military supplies to Russia through the purchase of energy or other raw materials, indirectly supporting Russia’s economy, Russia hopes that China will clearly support and provide military assistance. Still, this does not align with China’s national interests. China maintains a reserved attitude towards Russia, not wanting to be dragged into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and hoping to maintain economic relations with Europe and the United States.
“Therefore, North Korea’s provision of ammunition to Russia at this time can to a considerable extent alleviate the pressure on Russia to seek military aid from China. In some ways, China’s import of military supplies from North Korea into Russia is a successful move.”
Ding Shufan, Honorary Professor at the International College of National Affairs at National Chengchi University in Taiwan, told Epoch Times that these three countries coming together are primarily motivated by external forces, notably the United States, but each has its own calculations.
Ding Shufan believes that Russia’s main concern at the moment lies with the war in Ukraine and how to cope with the United States and NATO to maintain its advantage in the conflict while breaking the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe to possibly divide the US and Europe.
“The main concern for North Korea is likely how to expand its space for survival. It has been isolated by international sanctions for a long time, facing economic difficulties, food shortages, and a lack of foreign exchange. If it can sell a large amount of ammunition to Russia and earn some foreign exchange, it will be beneficial for its economy. North Korea will also import some energy supplies from Russia in exchange.”
Ding Shufan stated that China also hopes to break US pressure by joining forces with Russia and currently probably provides almost everything except deadly weapons to Russia, maintaining its existing weapons equipment and diverting US attention away from Europe and possibly the Taiwan Strait or the Indo-Pacific region. If Russia’s war doesn’t go well, Putin’s position is likely to be affected. China would be pleased to see North Korea sell these shells to Russia to help Russia sustain the war.
Experts point out that the China-Russia-North Korea relationship is not a firm tripartite partnership or alliance but a series of mutually beneficial ad hoc trades, and the closer the relationship among these three countries becomes, the more evident the contradictions.
Liu Xiaoxiang said that these three countries are currently getting closer, but it is only temporary cooperation, as they do not share a common belief or ideology. Russia has never really taken North Korea seriously in the past, but current circumstances leave no choice. For Russia, China and India are perhaps the two major strategic pillars left to it, with India pursuing a balanced diplomatic approach, making Beijing more reliable in comparison.
He said that China is under significant pressure from the United States, but within the US-Russia-China triangle, only Russia has enough weight to help China counter the US. From a broader perspective, even though China is concerned about US sanctions, it has been cautiously supporting Russia in a gray area. It also does not want Russia to be too weak, as a weakened Russia is not conducive to helping China counter the US.
“In the short term, cooperation among the three countries is beneficial. However, in the medium to long term, it may not be certain – it depends on the situation in the Russia-Ukraine war. There are several variables to consider. The US stance in containing China in the Indo-Pacific region is quite clear, and in relative terms, US-China relations may be more critical than US-Russia relations.”
Liu Xiaoxiang stated that the closer the relationship between China and Russia becomes, the more contradictions become apparent because the two countries have structural issues, border problems, and historical enmities.
He said Russia faces a demographic crisis, with vast territory but a sparse population. Despite this, it adamantly refuses to cede land and has concerns about Chinese immigrants gradually taking back territories ceded to China in the past. Territorial issues are thus a latent variable.
“In other words, Russia still views China as a potential adversary. Before the 2014 crisis in Ukraine, the Russian population had considerable suspicions about China, but with the emergence of a stronger adversary, the United States, attitudes quickly changed, shelving the differences for the time being. However, if the US threat diminishes, some underlying contradictions between China and Russia may slowly emerge.”
Both China and Russia are wary of North Korea.
Liu Xiaoxiang stated that for China and Russia, North Korea’s role mainly lies in helping to balance the United States. However, both China and Russia do not want North Korea to create chaos on the Korean Peninsula. If North Korea’s nuclear technology matures, will it become uncontrollable? Neither China nor Russia would welcome such a scenario. Therefore, while supporting North Korea, they will maintain control over North Korea to a certain extent.
“The development of the Far East is crucial for Russia’s future economic recovery. It holds the Far Eastern Economic Forum every year to attract investments from the Asia-Pacific region. While Russia currently has demands on North Korea, it will not allow North Korea to continuously engage in nuclear activities or create a nuclear crisis. Such actions would be detrimental to the development of Northeast Asia. Although Russia currently has needs from North Korea, it would not allow North Korea to cause uncontrolled nuclear crises.”
Liu Xiaoxiang mentioned that China certainly also hopes to maintain its influence over North Korea, which is also a bargaining chip against the United States. With Kim Jong-un being unpredictable and possessing nuclear weapons, North Korea is a headache for everyone in Northeast Asia. Nonetheless, China will not allow North Korea to develop to an uncontrollable level.
Ding Shufan stated that North Korea is determined to develop nuclear weapons regardless of sanctions from the United Nations and the US. When North Korea really possesses nuclear weapons, people in Beijing will also have concerns. The presence of nuclear weapons in North Korea would affect the entire situation in Northeast Asia – will Japan be tempted to follow suit? South Korea is discussing this internally, complicating the entire situation in Northeast Asia.
China is also concerned that a closer relationship between Russia and North Korea will affect China’s influence over North Korea.
Ding Shufan said that China is likely to be concerned that a closer relationship between Russia and North Korea could lead to relatively distant relations between China and North Korea. If history is any guide, after North Vietnam unified South Vietnam in 1975, relations between North Vietnam and China deteriorated, relying more on the Soviet Union at the time.
“DPRK’s relations with China were not good for a while. During the process of consolidating power, Kim Jong-un’s relationship with China was a bit distant. He killed his uncle, who was considered close to the Chinese Communist Party. At that time, Russia also did not take any special action to improve relations with North Korea.”
He said that now, following the closer relationship between Russia and North Korea due to the needs of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China is worried that Russia might secretly provide missile technology that Kim Jong-un needs. If North Korea possesses precise missiles and, in the future, acquires nuclear weapons, will it be more difficult for Beijing to influence it? This is a concern Beijing is likely to have.
With the US currently in an election year, what impact would Trump’s return have on the Russia-Ukraine war and the China-Russia-North Korea relationship if he were to come back into power?
Ding Shufan stated that even if Trump were to return, deep-seated suspicions between the US and Russia, as well as the US and North Korea, would remain significant obstacles. Improving US-Russian and US-North Korean relations in the short term would still be quite challenging. There is a group within the United States that is profoundly anti-North Korea and anti-Russia, and it will require considerable time to bridge these gaps. Therefore, even if Trump were to win, improving relations with North Korea and Russia in the short term would still be quite challenging.
Liu Xiaoxiang said that if Trump were to return, it would indeed be a significant variable. However, no matter how unpredictable he is, he would not take actions that would harm himself. Even if he intends to end the war, he may use more temperate methods to achieve his goal, avoiding actions that might backfire on him.
“The most likely scenario is that if Trump is reelected, he may indeed reduce the military assistance to Ukraine, gradually force Ukraine to accept limitations, and be willing to negotiate with Russia. In this way, the conflict can be resolved. It is clear to everyone that a war of attrition is highly detrimental to Ukraine. If Ukraine does not have military assistance from the West, it will likely soon lose the war. Western aid may not arrive in time, making the battle very, very difficult for Ukraine.”