Recently, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers’ Meeting held in China, India’s refusal to sign led to the failure of a joint declaration, indicating India’s existing grudges towards the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its intentions to maintain a distance. This also dealt a heavy blow to the CCP’s influence and expansion in Central Asia.
The 2025 SCO Defense Ministers’ Meeting took place on June 26 in Qingdao, China, where the Indian Defense Minister refused to sign the joint declaration. This setback significantly undermined the CCP’s leadership and influence within the organization.
According to reports, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh pointed out that the declaration mentioned a train and hostage hijacking incident in Pakistan’s Balochistan province in March this year but failed to address a shooting targeting Indian tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir in April. He criticized the statement for aligning with “Pakistan’s narrative” while weakening India’s stance on crucial anti-terrorism issues.
On April 22, a shooting incident occurred in Indian-administered Kashmir resulting in the deaths of 26 people, mostly Indian Hindu tourists. India classified the incident as a terrorist attack and accused Pakistan of backing it, although Pakistan denied involvement.
On March 11, a train passing through Pakistan’s Balochistan was hijacked by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), with approximately 440 passengers held hostage. The BLA demanded the release of Balochistan political prisoners and “disappeared” individuals within 48 hours. The Pakistani military rescued over 300 hostages on March 12, resulting in a total of 71 casualties, including 33 BLA soldiers, 30 civilian hostages, and 8 Pakistani soldiers.
The BLA is an armed Baloch organization seeking equal rights and self-determination for the oppressed Baloch people. Since 2004, it has engaged in armed resistance against the Pakistani government, targeting not only Pakistani armed forces but also infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the Belt and Road Initiative, along with Chinese personnel.
Balochistan province is Pakistan’s largest province. The Pakistani government has designated the BLA as a terrorist organization and accused India of supporting separatist movements in Balochistan, a claim India refutes.
India and Pakistan have long-standing border disputes and engaged in clashes from May 6 to 10 this year. Reportedly, Pakistan deployed Chinese-supported J-10C fighter jets, resulting in the downing of Indian aircraft. This escalated tensions between India and Pakistan and emphasized the significance of the “China-Pakistan Friendship Alliance.”
While presiding over the Qingdao SCO Defense Ministers’ Meeting, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun stated, “Amid the complexities of the international situation, the SCO needs to play a stabilizing role.” However, the lack of a joint declaration due to India’s refusal to sign has hindered the CCP’s regional influence.
Researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies Shen Mingshi told reporters that the SCO primarily focuses on counterterrorism, but member states have varied stances on terrorism and terrorist organizations, leading to challenges in reaching joint declarations.
He noted that the Qingdao SCO meeting’s joint statement addressed terrorism opposed by Pakistan but omitted terrorism opposed by India. Combined with the “psychological grudge” left by the May “India-Pakistan air combat,” India’s reluctance to sign can be interpreted as a refusal to give face to the CCP.
Shen highlighted that India perceives itself as a major power and has concerns regarding maintaining face or nationalism. The joint declaration, in his view, prioritizing Pakistan’s face over India’s presence, prompted India to push back and protest.
Moreover, Shen mentioned that following the May air combat between India and Pakistan, Bangladesh expressed interest in purchasing Chinese Red Flag missiles and J-10 fighter jets, as well as collaborating with China to establish a dual-use defense base in Siliguri for military and civilian purposes.
Siliguri is located at the northernmost tip of Bangladesh, creating a bottleneck between Indian territory and its northeast provinces.
Shen pointed out that these seven Indian provinces share borders with China, and allowing Chinese military presence in Siliguri poses significant risks for India. Losing control of Siliguri or being contained there would hinder India’s ability to provide reinforcement to its border conflict areas.
He believed that China’s role in the power dynamics of South Asia has been unfriendly towards India, hindering mutual trust and potentially influencing India’s reluctance to further cooperate with China or sign agreements.
Established in 2001 by China, Russia, and four Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan), the SCO was created as a regional security organization.
Shen mentioned that initially, China aimed to use the SCO for its “Western Development” project, later evolving into the Belt and Road Initiative.
According to Shen, over the past two decades, China has sought to establish a regional mechanism under its leadership through the SCO, attracting countries with less specific stances like those in Central Asia due to close economic ties with China.
In expanding the SCO, China also aimed to attract more neutral countries such as India and Turkey. India and Pakistan joined the SCO in 2017 as the second batch of new members, with Iran and Belarus joining in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Turkey is currently a dialogue partner of the SCO.
Shen noted that as China seeks to expand its influence in Central Asia through the SCO, inviting India and Pakistan brought challenges due to the historical enmity between the two nations. Shen believed that India, being a large neighboring country to China, has complex considerations.
While China aims to influence India through the SCO platform, Shen believed that China’s influence on India may be relatively limited.
Shen also indicated that India’s inclusion significantly obstructed China’s expansion of influence in Central Asia, given the conflicting national interests between the two countries, particularly in the midst of border conflicts. The resolution of the border issue between India and China is crucial for the success of the SCO.
In summary, the recent developments at the SCO Defense Ministers’ Meeting underscore the complex relationships and power struggles in the region, with India’s stance influencing the dynamics of the organization and its impact on regional security and cooperation initiatives.