On Friday, the United Nations Security Council vetoed a proposal by China and Russia to delay the restoration of sanctions against Iran. Western countries pointed out that talks with Iranian officials in recent weeks had failed to reach a “concrete” agreement, leading to the automatic reinstatement of sanctions on Saturday as per the agreement mechanism.
These sanctions stem from the “snapback” provision in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which allows for sanctions to be automatically reinstated after 30 days if member states determine Iran to be in violation of the agreement and trigger the dispute resolution process. According to the process, the UN will once again freeze Iran’s overseas assets, prohibit arms trade, restrict ballistic missile development, among other measures, further straining Iran’s already troubled economy.
On Friday, China and Russia pushed for a resolution in the Security Council requesting a six-month buffer period for Iran to delay the reinstatement of sanctions. However, this “last-ditch effort” failed to garner sufficient support from the 15 member countries. Diplomats widely viewed the proposal as “almost destined to fail.”
Since the start of the 30-day countdown, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has held intensive meetings with foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany in an attempt to salvage the nuclear deal. However, a European diplomat informed the Associated Press that the talks “did not yield any new progress or results.” As a result, European parties anticipate that the “snapback” process will proceed as planned, with the related sanctions taking effect on Saturday.
Araghchi has called on the Security Council to support an extension to gain “diplomatic time and space.” However, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously stated publicly that peace negotiations with the United States were a “dead end,” nearly cutting off the last-minute mediation possibilities.
European countries have indicated that a possible extension would only be considered if Iran agrees to resume direct negotiations with the US, allows comprehensive access for UN inspectors to nuclear facilities, and provides explanations regarding the 400 kilograms or more of enriched uranium stockpile identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Earlier this month, Egypt brokered an agreement for Iran to allow limited inspections to resume. Nevertheless, Iran has threatened to end that agreement and halt all cooperation once sanctions are reinstated.
European officials believe that these limited cooperations are insufficient to alter the course of the sanctions process.
Iranian officials had previously threatened to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) if sanctions are reinstated.