China and India speeding up border negotiations, experts say tension shows no sign of easing

On Thursday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that China and India would accelerate negotiations over their disputed border. Despite both sides calling for stability in their relations, analysts say there is still no sign of easing military tensions between China and India.

The 30th meeting of the China-India Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs (WMCC) was held in New Delhi on Thursday. The focus of the meeting was to address the long-standing dispute along the shared border in the Himalayan mountain range, where most areas remain undefined.

Tensions between China and India have persisted since May 5, 2020, with tens of thousands of troops still facing off along the disputed border.

In a statement, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs indicated that both sides reviewed the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with the hope of resolving outstanding issues at the earliest. They emphasized that restoring peace and tranquility, and respecting the LAC, are crucial foundations for normalizing bilateral relations.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that both sides agreed to actively implement the important consensus reached during recent bilateral meetings of the foreign ministers, focusing on specific issues regarding the China-India border and addressing each other’s legitimate concerns to reach a solution acceptable to both parties.

However, analysts note that despite both sides calling for stable relations, there are no indications of military tensions easing between these two competitors.

Srikanth Kondapalli, the director of the Institute of Chinese Studies at Nehru University, told Voice of America on Wednesday, “The reality is that China (the Chinese Communist Party) is focusing on building infrastructure in the Himalayas to enhance its conventional deterrence capability. They are constructing roads, bridges, and other military-related structures. This is a major concern for India.”

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyan Jaishankar, at a Quad ministerial meeting in Tokyo on Monday, bluntly stated during a press conference, “I have to say the relationship with China (the Chinese Communist Party) is not very good.”

He mentioned, “The main reason is that during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, China deployed a large number of forces to the border region with India, violating agreements that we had with them.”

Jaishankar attributed China’s actions to clashes and casualties between India and China, stressing that as long as the border issue remains unresolved, the consequences of these conflicts “still continue.”

He added, “So today, if you ask me, how are our relations with China (the Chinese Communist Party), I would say they are not good, not normal.”

Jaishankar’s comments came a few days after meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where he also underscored that unless the border issue is resolved, normalizing China-India relations cannot occur.

He emphasized, “But clearly, as neighbors, we would like to have a better relationship, but that can only happen if they respect the Line of Actual Control and the agreements they have signed in the past.”

However, analysts point out that there is no sign of de-escalation in border tensions and minimal progress in resolving the disputes between the two countries.

Despite this, trade between China and India has been growing. In recent years, India has increased scrutiny of Chinese investments, nearly banned all Chinese tourists, halted major Chinese projects in India, and blocked Chinese apps like TikTok.

Yet, despite these restrictions, China remains India’s largest trading partner. With domestic market demand sluggish, China is increasingly dependent on India. China hopes to ease bilateral relations by tapping into the market of the world’s most populous country to absorb China’s manufacturing overcapacity.

Last year, India imported goods worth over $100 billion from China, while its exports to China were only $16 billion, highlighting a significant trade imbalance between the two countries.

Chinese officials have expressed hope for normal exchanges between the two countries despite the territorial disputes. However, India insists that normalizing relations requires resolving the border standoff.

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is striving to emerge as a global manufacturing hub as an alternative to China. Companies like Apple have also set up production facilities in India in recent years.

With China exporting excess capacity globally and India becoming more vigilant, trade conflicts between the two countries may intensify.

On Monday, Indian authorities submitted the Economic Survey 2023-2024 to parliament, warning, “Since 2021, China’s real estate sector has been underperforming, leading to severe overcapacity and causing a collapse in global steel prices, putting enormous pressure on producers in India, Vietnam, Brazil, and other countries.”

The report highlighted that China’s overcapacity poses a threat to other countries, especially emerging and developing economies (EMDE).

“More and more EMDEs are imposing import restrictions on Chinese goods while accelerating free trade elsewhere to shield domestic manufacturers,” the report stated. “Meanwhile, China has begun retaliating against these import restrictions, complicating the manufacturing landscape of EMDEs.”