After the missile attack in Iran, Israel has vowed to retaliate, with signs indicating that its response will be much stronger than the one in April last year. The world is closely watching Israel’s retaliatory response to Iran. People are increasingly worried that the continued escalation between the two sides might lead to a full-scale war in the region.
On October 2nd, Israeli Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi stated, “We will respond, we know how to target strategic sites, and how to carry out precise and powerful strikes.” “We have the capability to reach and strike any location in the Middle East. Our enemies and those who do not yet understand this will soon know.”
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Iran would pay a price for the attack. He said, “The Iranian regime does not understand our determination to defend ourselves, they will understand.” “Our rule is: whoever attacks, we will attack back.”
According to reports, Israeli officials generally believe that Iran’s air defense systems and oil facilities may be targeted as a priority, along with possible targeted assassinations. The means that Israel may use include ground-to-ground missiles, fighter jets, and clandestine operations.
Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chose the Mossad headquarters, the Natanz Air Force Base, and the Hazerim Air Force Base as the main targets of the October 1st attack. He emphasized that if Israel retaliates, Iran’s next response will be “more destructive.”
Iranian Army Commander Sayyed Abdolrahim Mousavi stated that Iran’s military would respond more severely to any retaliatory actions by Israel.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Biden stated that he does not support any Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. This indicates the White House’s continued efforts to urge restraint from Israel to avoid a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Biden told reporters that the leaders of the G7 agreed in a phone meeting on Wednesday, October 2nd, to impose new sanctions on Iran and acknowledged Israel’s right to respond to Iranian attacks.
An open-source intelligence researcher believes that based on attack videos and recovered missile debris images, Iran used the Kheiber Shekan (Castle Destroyer) medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) in this attack. This missile was first unveiled by Iran on February 9, 2022.
Iranian officials stated that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, prompting Iranian authorities to thoroughly investigate possible internal spies. They are particularly focused on individuals, including high-ranking officials, who travel abroad or have relatives living outside Iran, especially members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps suspected of traveling to Lebanon. Those who inquire about Nasrallah’s whereabouts and how long he will stay at a specific location will be closely monitored. This has also left Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei feeling apprehensive.
Israeli media reported that Israeli military assassinations have not ceased, and on October 1st, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that in the latest attack targeting the senior leadership of terrorist organizations, they had killed Hezbollah’s 4400 Unit commander Muhammad Ja’far Qasir and the commander of the Iranian militia Imam Hussein’s Daw Alfakher Hinawi. The 4400 Unit of Hezbollah is responsible for transporting weapons to Lebanon.
People are more concerned about how Israel will respond on Iranian soil. Will it be a large-scale aerial bombardment or lead to a large-scale ground invasion after a series of attacks? If all possible options are on the table, some options can be excluded now. For instance, mobilizing a large ground force and preparing to invade Iran. This involves complex and sensitive diplomatic efforts, as the troops would need to pass through Jordan, Syria, Turkey, and Iraq either by land or air. In the current geopolitical environment, it is challenging to negotiate successfully.
Both Iran and Israel do not have strong navies. Due to the long presence of U.S. Navy carrier strike groups in the Middle East, Iran’s limited small surface vessels and dozens of submarines pose a minimal threat to Israel from the eastern Mediterranean waters.
Long-range precision strike weapons launched from air and ground are likely to be the preferred choice of the Israeli Defense Forces. The IDF undoubtedly possesses precision-guided land-based ballistic missiles and a powerful air force, capabilities that could potentially surpass and overwhelm Iran’s defense systems. The Iranian military is unlikely to have the capability to stop or intercept incoming ballistic missiles in a manner similar to the IDF.
The distance from Jerusalem to Tehran is 1,845 kilometers, reachable by some ballistic missiles and fighter jets refueled in the air. Among all these options, the F-35 stealth fighter is likely the favored choice. The range of the F-35A is approximately 2,200 kilometers, requiring at least one aerial refueling to reach a combat radius of over 1,800 kilometers covering targets within Iran. However, operationally, there are virtually no barriers to air strikes on targets inside Iran using F-35s.
The Israeli Air Force consists of approximately 250 combat aircraft, mainly F-15, F-16, and F-35 of the fourth and fifth generations, while Iran operates around 180 combat aircraft, mainly consisting of third-generation fighters and several F-14s and MiG-29s. Iran does not possess fifth-generation fighters, placing the Iranian Air Force in a significantly disadvantaged position. If Israeli F-35I Adir appears over Iranian airspace, Israel is almost certain to swiftly establish air superiority.
Israel’s impending reaction is almost inevitable. Israel utilizing its absolute air power advantage to strike Iranian military targets such as missile defense systems and radar stations will further expand this gap. In an attack earlier this year in April, Israel destroyed the S-300 air defense system near the Isfahan nuclear facility, sending a dual message of depleting defense capabilities and leaving critical infrastructure unprotected. Launching a new, more extensive attack targeting ballistic missile production, storage, or operational sites will aim to widen the gap and eliminate the threat to Israel.
Although Biden stated his disapproval of Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, it does not mean that Israel will not take action against the facilities. State Department spokesperson Miller also mentioned that the U.S. is continuing discussions with Israel regarding the impending response. However, the final action will be dependent on Israel, as any sovereign nation would make its own decisions.
An Israeli solo operation to strike Iranian nuclear facilities may pose challenges. Israel can significantly damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, but without U.S. assistance, it may find it difficult to completely annihilate deeply buried nuclear installations. However, considering Iran’s increased weapon-grade uranium enrichment capacity, they may be one step away from nuclear weapons.