On September 24, Israel launched a new wave of airstrikes on Lebanon, targeting the Hezbollah military forces linked to Iran. The result led to thousands fleeing Lebanon and hundreds dead. At the same time, Hezbollah fired a series of rockets towards targets in Israel.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reiterated in a televised press conference on the 24th that if necessary, they are prepared for a ground invasion of Lebanon. They stated that Israel is not seeking war, but will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the northern border.
Israeli Navy Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, IDF spokesperson, stated that the military is fully prepared and will take all necessary measures to bring all civilians safely back to the northern border. He emphasized that the IDF has made great efforts to avoid targeting civilians and minimize harm to them during operations. He added that the casualties in Lebanon are tragic, with a significant number of Hezbollah terrorists killed, who were next to the weapons being attacked. Over the past 24 hours, the Israeli military has targeted over 1,300 Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. Hezbollah weapon depots were destroyed, with social media videos showing intense secondary explosions.
Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stated that the IDF is preparing for the next stage of operations in Lebanon. He mentioned that their primary target is the military infrastructure that Hezbollah has been building for the past 20 years. Israel continues to set targets and prepare for the next phase of operations.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant mentioned that the airstrikes on that day destroyed tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets.
Senior Hezbollah leaders became prime targets in the Israeli strikes. This was part of a comprehensive plan that began with attacks on September 17 involving personal pagers carried by Hezbollah members as signals for the first wave of assaults. Subsequently, from September 19 to 24, the Israeli military continued to launch a series of devastating attacks on Hezbollah military personnel and facilities.
On September 20, Hezbollah’s leadership in Beirut was hit with the most intense airstrikes to date. Many senior Hezbollah commanders were killed, including key commander Ibrahim Aqil. The IDF described this as a “precision strike.” Aqil was considered one of the masterminds behind the 1983 bombings of the US embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut.
Reports in Israel indicated that the entire command structure of Hezbollah’s elite “Radwan Force” may have been annihilated in these attacks. It was confirmed by an Israeli military spokesperson that during the attack, Aqil and other Hezbollah military leaders, along with Radwan Force members, were gathered in an underground facility, serving as targets for Israel’s precise strikes due to leaked information.
Israeli IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari informed journalists that they were gathered in the basement of a residential building in the Dahiye Center, using civilians as human shields. They were coordinating terror activities against Israeli civilians during that meeting.
Hezbollah admitted that 16 members were killed in the September 20 attack, including senior leader Ibrahim Aqil and another commander Ahmed Mahmoud Wahbi. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that the explosions “crossed all red lines.” Since the cross-border attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians and the subsequent Gaza War on October 7 last year, Hezbollah has been launching attacks on Israel. Although the battles in the border regions have not escalated into a full-scale war, hundreds have died and tens of thousands have been displaced.
After Aqil’s death on September 20, Ali Karaki became Hezbollah’s top military commander. Karaki commanded the Southern Front, controlling Hezbollah’s Badr, Nasir, and Aziz forces. Latest reports suggest that Hezbollah denies Karaki’s death in the Israeli airstrikes, claiming he has been moved to a safe location.
Defense Minister Gallant stated the goal is to ensure the safe return of Israeli northern community civilians to their homes. Over time, Hezbollah will face increasing costs.
It’s unclear what the next steps of the Israeli military will be in Lebanon, but multiple reports indicate a significant buildup of Israeli troops and armored units along the northern border area.
On September 21, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that in at least two waves of airstrikes in southern Lebanon, over four hundred rocket launchers, thousands of rocket tubes, and other military infrastructure were targeted. These were aimed at the medium and short-range rocket launchers threatening Haifa and northern Israeli towns. The Israeli military stated that this was a response to signs of Hezbollah preparing to launch rockets towards northern Israel.
On September 22, the Israeli military announced another round of airstrikes on dozens of Hezbollah rocket launchers and military installations across Lebanon. The purpose was to weaken Hezbollah forces rather than preemptive strikes as the previous day, in an effort to stop an imminent Hezbollah attack.
These actions are part of a comprehensive plan, including three consecutive days of intense airstrikes in Lebanon and thousands of Hezbollah pagers and radio devices explosions. Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi mentioned that Israel will continue to “hit again and again” at Hezbollah until the goal of returning displaced citizens to their northern Israeli homes is achieved.
Hezbollah seems to have mounted its maximum retaliatory response. On September 21, Hezbollah fired medium-range rockets at Israel’s Ramat David Air Base in the north, claiming it was in response to Israel attacking Lebanon. On September 22, Hezbollah launched 85 short and medium-range rockets near Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Company close to Haifa. This company is an Israeli defense corporation involved in weapons and military technology development, including the “Iron Dome” defense system. Hezbollah claimed this was in retaliation for the exploding pagers and radio devices by Israel. It appears that Hezbollah’s response capability has significantly weakened due to previous attacks.
On September 23, the Pentagon announced the deployment of additional troops to the Middle East in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Pentagon Press Secretary Pat Laid did not disclose the exact number of troops, specific deployment locations, or missions. Currently, the US has approximately 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The Pentagon warned that the escalation of the conflict increases the risk of a broader regional war and advised American citizens to leave Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on September 16 that repatriating Israeli citizens to their homes in the north of Israel was a new war goal as part of the war since October 7, 2023. This move was in response to Hezbollah’s support for Hamas in the 11-month-long military operations against Israel.
The War Studies Institute believes that Israel’s military actions in Lebanon are aimed at preventing Hezbollah from achieving its war goal of helping Hamas survive and rebuild in the Gaza Strip. Hamas’ rebuilding poses a long-term security threat to Israel. This encourages Hezbollah leader Nasrallah to continue launching rocket attacks against Israel. Nasrallah is likely to support Hamas and resist relinquishing his role as a resistance axis leader.
Therefore, Hezbollah may persist in conducting indirect attacks on northern Israel, increasing the risk of triggering ground warfare. Israel appears poised to act decisively as only by neutralizing Hezbollah’s ability to fire at Israel can the goal of enabling Israeli residents to return to their northern homes be achieved.
In the coming weeks, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah may intensify further. For Hezbollah, this could be a very dangerous moment that will potentially lead to a countdown to critical decisions. Moreover, concerns about the civilian casualties that both sides may cause are escalating.