In today’s world, the only countries that truly possess long-range strategic bombers are the United States and Russia, with China being another aspiring player in the pursuit of strategic bombers. While China’s current H-6 bomber cannot strictly be considered a long-range strategic bomber, the elusive H-20, which has yet to make a public appearance, may end up being a burden on its equipment development or may even become redundant.
Recently, officials from the US Air Force have indicated that with the development of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) concepts, strategic bombers may face obsolescence. This could potentially alter the future of the US Air Force’s B-21 Raider stealth bomber program.
Although these developments may not have an immediate practical impact, as current unmanned drones still cannot match the range and speed of bombers, the rapid advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence, communication networks, stealth capabilities, and hypersonic missiles could enable cost-effective missions to be carried out more effectively by inexpensive aerial platforms. With the enhancement of drone capabilities, the role of the B-21 in future wars may change.
In 2010, the unit cost of the B-21 was approximately $550 million, adjusted for inflation its cost is now estimated to be around $780 million. A few months ago, the US Air Force announced that the procurement cost of the future Northrop Grumman B-21 bomber might be less than $692 million, even with a fleet size possibly capped at 100 aircraft.
The budget allocated by the US Air Force for the fiscal year 2025 for purchasing bombers that represent the future backbone force has decreased to $2.7 billion, nearly cut in half compared to the estimated $4 billion for the previous fiscal year. The procurement budget for the fiscal year 2026 has also been reduced by about $600 million to $3.9 billion.
The reduction in the budget for the advanced next-generation stealth bomber program of the US Air Force partly stems from negotiations with contractors to cut costs. This decision, made by the Pentagon shortly after the Air Force projected a total cost of $203 billion for the B-21 program over 30 years, suggests a shift towards cost-efficiency. This indicates that the Pentagon may be looking towards broader perspectives and envisioning new possibilities.
The US Air Force may adjust the total production target for the next-generation stealth bomber from a minimum of 100 aircraft to not exceeding 100. While this may sound like a mundane alteration, if it originates from the US Air Force itself, it could signal a significant shift in equipment development strategy.
Air Force officials believe that committing to purchasing more aircraft is unwise as technology is likely to significantly progress during the procurement process, thus focusing on better alternative options should be a priority. This year, Richard G. Moore, the former Deputy Director of Planning, stated that a decision on expanding the B-21 fleet size may not be necessary until the 2030s. A month later, Air Force Chief of Staff David W. Allvin announced that he does not intend to purchase over 100 aircraft, as advancements in technology may render the current aircraft obsolete by the time they are all produced.
Moreover, costly aircraft that cost billions or even tens of billions of dollars often have little or no equivalent value in terms of objectives. Just as seen in the Red Sea, the US Navy spent nearly $10 billion to counter low-cost missiles launched by Houthi militants. The costs of anti-aircraft missiles far exceed the ballistic missiles and cruise missiles they are intended to intercept, with adversaries exploiting low-value decoys to deplete the US military’s expensive resources.
The US Air Force has previously used the B-2 bomber to launch attacks on terrorist bases in Afghanistan from the United States, which is one of the most renowned deployments of the B-2 bomber. However, many argue that this manner of utilizing the B-2 bomber is not optimal, as missions that can be accomplished by many of the multi-role fighter aircraft stationed in the Middle East. The demonstration effect of this operation may have had a greater impact than its actual tactical effectiveness, enhancing adversaries’ understanding of the operational capabilities of long-range bombers.
The rapid development of new technologies triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to speculation about the possibility of no longer requiring manned bomber fleets in the future. Nonetheless, as a component of the nuclear triad alongside ballistic missile submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles, the status of stealth bombers like the B-21 remains unchallenged. The era of long-range strategic bombers is far from over. If a fierce high-end conflict erupts in the distant Western Pacific, or any global conflict occurs in the next decade or so until the 2030s, capabilities like the B-21’s long-range, high payload, penetration, and precise strike capabilities in hostile environments are deemed essential, fulfilling the unmatched breakthrough capabilities that stealth bombers with unparalleled breakthrough capabilities like the B-21 ought to exhibit.
So, what kinds of systems or alternative options in the future could replace the most advanced stealth strategic bombers? It might be unclear even for the US Air Force at present, but one thing is certain: the US Air Force will not doubt that technological advancements will propel unmanned drone systems to become more cost-effective and efficient alternatives to existing strategic bombers. This potential shift can perhaps be seen during Ukraine’s successful use of drones to target Russian assets. However, the focus could more likely be on the speed, creativity, and capability of this progress, with the belief that cumbersome long-range strategic bombers, like the cruise ships of the 21st century, are poised to fade as the most attack-capable military platforms, eventually relegating advanced systems like the B-21 to museums as the last-generation bombers. Obviously, this is not yet a reality as existing drones are still far from fulfilling the roles of long-range bombers, requiring substantial technological advancements, but the trend is beginning to emerge.
The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter system may possess this potential, serving as the sixth-generation fighter supported by unmanned drone systems for the US Air Force. The US Air Force could potentially replace strategic bombers with a small fleet.
Another possibility is through the Combined Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, where the B-21 acts as an “airborne carrier” for unmanned combat drones, allowing it to simultaneously engage ground and aerial targets. The core idea behind this concept emphasizes the role of drones, with the B-21 no longer functioning as a bomber. While this concept may seem difficult to grasp, it is not entirely impossible.
Uncertainty surrounds the US Air Force’s stance on NGAD, partially due to cost concerns. Yet, Air Force officials understand that regardless of the platforms currently under development, they may become outdated within a few years of entering service. As troops begin using these aircraft, it may have been several years or even decades since their initial development, especially in this era of rapid technological advancement, where technological leaps could render deployed equipment obsolete, or even leave some equipment overtaken by advancements before being put into service.
The NGAD program aims to develop a larger system composed of systems, including manned fighter jets supported by unmanned drone systems, where drones can serve as sensors and loyalist drones. The NGAD fighter itself does not need to directly engage in combat similar to the F-22 fighter; its collaborative drones prevent enemies from entering visible ranges, whereby the B-21 may be more suitable for such a task than NGAD.
Analyst Brandon Weichert believes that in an era dominated by Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD), the B-21 is considered more practical than NGAD. It can provide unprecedented power projection capabilities to counter threats from China or any other country. At this point, the role of the B-21 transcends that of a mere bomber; it forms a cost-effective combat system with the Joint Combat Aircraft being jointly developed with the US Air Force and Navy, or even an upgraded one-time unmanned aerial drone version based on this concept.
In this future scenario, the fate of China’s still developing H-20 might not be optimistic. Prior to the 2024 Zhuhai Air Show, Vice Commander of the Chinese Air Force Yu Qingjiang stated that newly developed aircraft in recent years will appear in flight demonstrations, showcasing capabilities in remote strategic delivery and aerial combat that many have long desired and still want to see. In March of this year, Deputy Commander of the Chinese Air Force Wang Wei sparked discussions by hinting, “The H-20 is coming soon.” Speculations suggest that the H-20 could be the equipment set for public display and scrutiny.
Externally, the H-20 is considered to follow the development path of the US Air Force’s B-2 bomber, but under a series of technical limitations, it may still fail to reach the level of the B-2. While claims suggest its main performance indicators include a range of 12,000 kilometers and a payload exceeding 25 tons, without the related conditions associated with these numbers, the true status remains unknown. Pursuing capabilities akin to the B-2, the H-20 might become a significant financial drain that cannot fulfill unattainable benchmarks, rendering China disinterested in its utilization and regretful of the investment.
The stealth capabilities of the H-20 are a major concern. The survivability of this slow-moving, cumbersome aerial platform in long-range operations predominantly relies on its stealth capabilities. If it fails to meet or exceed the stealth performance of the B-2, it would bear no essential difference from the H-6, merely flying farther and carrying a heavier payload. The United States has never viewed the H-6 as a substantial threat, regardless of the missiles it could launch; it remains merely a large slow-moving aerial target.
In reality, due to the steep operational costs of the B-2 and its relatively outdated stealth technology, the US has decided to replace it with the new B-21, which could rapidly become the last-generation bomber due to technological advancements. Thus, under the shadow of the B-2, the H-20, even if realized, may find it challenging to grow into a mature system.