【Epoch Times, October 27, 2024】
The long-rumored news of North Korea sending troops to Ukraine was finally confirmed by the US officials on Wednesday (October 23). Now attention is shifting towards what implications North Korea’s involvement will have, how the US and the West will respond, and the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war.
On the afternoon of October 23 local time, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin confirmed in Rome, Italy that North Korea has dispatched troops to Russia. He stated, “We see evidence that North Korean forces have moved to Russia,” and “We will continue to pull on this thread to see what will happen here,” adding, “If they are a party to the conflict, if their intent is to represent Russia in this war, that is a very very serious matter.” This move not only affects Europe but also the Indo-Pacific region. He believes this is the first step towards a “dangerous” escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war.
White House spokesman John Kirby stated on the 24th that since October, North Korea has transferred at least 3,000 soldiers from the mountainous region of Mount Kumgang in North Korea to the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok via ships. These troops then went to three military locations in eastern Russia to undergo combat training. Following the training, these soldiers can proceed to the western part of Russia to engage with the Ukrainian forces, a development indicating Russia’s increasing desperation in the war with Ukraine. He expressed concern about the possibility of these soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces. He said, “If they truly deploy against Ukraine, they are fair game, fair target, just as the Ukrainian forces defend themselves from Russian soldiers, they will defend themselves from North Korean soldiers.”
Chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee Mike Turner stated on the 23rd that following the exposure of several thousand soldiers from North Korea entering Russian territory, if North Korean troops become involved in the Ukrainian war, the US should consider taking “direct military action.” He emphasized that the Biden administration must recognize that North Korean military involvement in the Ukrainian war is a red line. If North Korean troops invade Ukrainian sovereign territory, the US needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against them.
Ukrainian President Zelensky warned last week that North Korea will dispatch nearly ten thousand soldiers to fight alongside the Russian troops. He mentioned during a speech in Brussels that tactical personnel and military officers from North Korea have already entered Ukraine.
The latest information from the Ukrainian military intelligence agency also indicates that the North Korean forces aiding Russia will soon participate in the battle of Kharkiv. On the 24th, Ukrainian officials reported that the first batch of North Korean troops arrived in Kharkiv on the 23rd. North Korean military personnel are undergoing combat training at least five military bases, including the Balanovsky military training base in the border region of Ussuriysk. The Russian military has spent weeks coordinating with the North Korean forces and provided them with ammunition and other personal equipment. So far, North Korea has transported approximately 12,000 troops to Russia, including 500 officers and 3 generals.
Currently, both NATO and the US have yet to provide a clear judgment and possible response plans on how North Korean troops will be deployed, when and where they will intervene in the Ukrainian war, and what scale it will be. Kirby stated that whether North Korean soldiers will be deployed into combat remains undecided, and it is too early to assess what impact they will have on Ukraine. “We don’t know what they will do, whether they will deploy into combat, and in what capacity they will deploy.”
However, increasing indications suggest that North Korean forces may engage in direct confrontations with Ukrainian forces in an organized manner on the frontlines. This poses an extremely dangerous prospect, signaling a worrying milestone that could escalate the conflict globally, leading to deeper and broader involvement of the US and other NATO allies, even the potential deployment of troops directly into Ukraine to counter Russian military actions.
British Defense Minister John Healey stated in a parliamentary session on the 22nd that the involvement of the unstable nuclear state of North Korea in a conflict in Europe is making it the largest participant in a European conflict since World War II, supporting Russia’s aggressive war. He emphasized North Korea’s transfer of a significant amount of weapons and ammunition to Russia, directly violating multiple United Nations resolutions. The military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is having a serious impact on the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific region. They represent an aggression group that NATO and the G7 must address, facing a developing threat.
Currently, the Russian military is still striving to advance in the combat zone to achieve tactical gains. However, due to heavy casualties suffered by the Russian forces, the offensive is losing momentum. For months, Russia has seen casualties in the thousands daily. Seeking military assistance from Pyongyang highlights the challenges Moscow is facing.
On the surface, North Korea’s involvement seems to bolster Russia’s war capabilities, providing them with much-needed troops and ammunition to address their pressing concerns. However, the negative consequences that follow may outweigh the benefits, clearly crossing all the red lines laid out by Moscow and leading to even more difficult and complex choices for Russia.
Russia’s escalated actions are likely to trigger corresponding responses from NATO countries. Initially, the US and the West may reconsider their restrictions on the use of long-range weapons. Zelensky has repeatedly urged Washington to lift the restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, and in this regard, North Korea’s entry into the conflict might aid Zelensky’s cause.
In his statement, Turner said, “For a long time, I have questioned the wisdom of the Biden administration’s limitation on Ukraine’s use of US weapons against targets inside Russia.” “If the North Korean troops attack Ukraine from Russian territory, Ukraine should be allowed to respond with US weapons.”
Indeed, North Korea-supplied missiles have already hit Ukrainian territory. In May of this year, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) confirmed that Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine. Through open-source intelligence image analysis, analysts confirmed that fragments found in Kharkiv on January 2 belonged to a North Korean short-range missile, indicating North Korea’s ballistic missiles have already struck Ukraine.
There may be more North Korean missiles flying towards Ukraine, although currently, these missiles appear to be short-range. However, North Korea may provide more missiles with longer ranges that can reach NATO member countries. If this scenario unfolds, NATO may devise contingency plans. With North Korean missiles entering the supply lines of the Russian forces, the war is becoming internationalized.
As Turner pointed out, since Russia can use North Korean missiles to strike on European soil, why shouldn’t Ukraine be able to hit targets inside Russian territory with US and Western missiles?
The response of the US and the West to the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war is still under observation, but the development depends largely on the US stance. It seems that the Biden administration is not likely to follow Turner’s suggestion to lift the restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US long-range weapons to strike targets inside Russia in a matter of weeks and consider taking so-called “direct military action” based on the evolving situation. The Biden administration is trying to manage the war, keeping it contained to advance US foreign policy interests without spreading to a broader region. This strategy has kept the US hovering between the red lines set by Russia and the escalation of actions in supporting critical capabilities in Ukraine.
Nico Lange, a senior researcher at the Munich Security Conference, believes that Europe is awaiting the results of the US election. Currently, major European countries have not formed a common strategy to address an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, including objectives and action plans. Yet, Europe is acutely aware that this escalation poses a real threat. The alliance formed by Russia and North Korea is unequivocally prepared to fight on European soil, not merely making empty threats.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, is tracking the developments closely. Analyst Joseph Byrne of RUSI mentioned, “I never thought I’d see North Korean ballistic missiles being used to kill people on European soil.”
Although the situation is dire, it remains unclear whether Russia truly has the courage and capability to spread the conflict to other regions of Europe. However, should this eventuality come to pass, it would prompt a fiercer retaliation from the US and NATO’s major countries.