In an incident that took place approximately six months ago, a nuclear-powered attack submarine being constructed by the Chinese Communist Navy sank and was recently exposed by Western media. This event is seen as a significant blow to the Chinese Navy and unveils a glimpse of the reality behind Beijing’s rapid naval expansion.
This serves as a reminder that the development of equipment within the Chinese military may not be as successful as touted, and that they are not constantly achieving great feats as claimed. In this process, the Chinese Communist Party is also continuously facing nightmares.
For those concerned about China surpassing the United States militarily, this incident is a piece of good news. The latest nuclear-powered attack submarine of the Chinese Navy sank during its construction, and Beijing’s consistent efforts to evade or cover up the news made it seem less significant. According to reports, the incident occurred in spring this year, but it wasn’t made public until about six months later, thanks to Beijing’s media censorship.
Failed developments in equipment are unavoidable for any country and are not shameful. However, denial and concealment can amplify the potential severity of the situation, including systemic issues caused by structural deficiencies and the corrupt mechanisms inherent in the essence of the Chinese Communist Party, leading to poor equipment quality. Additionally, such incidents could have disastrous effects on society, as they may involve nuclear fuel leaks, especially near densely populated cities in China. Reports indicate that the submarine sinking incident happened at the shipyard of the Wuhan Shipbuilding Company, a subsidiary of China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), on the banks of the Yangtze River in the outskirts of Wuhan.
Nevertheless, this is evidently a loss of face for the Chinese authorities. The loss of this submarine will have a considerable negative impact on Beijing’s efforts to modernize its navy and expand its military. If confirmed, it will prove a fact that among the series of foolish mistakes made by the Chinese Communist Party, only a few are exposed and known to the outside world. Many more incidents deemed damaging to China’s reputation may never come to light. However, concerning the submarine sinking incident, it may not have a clear fatal impact on China’s overall strategic posture, as China will continue to have a disruptive effect on the rules-based international order.
People may mock China’s poor product quality, using it as evidence that the United States Navy can easily overcome the numerical advantage of the Chinese Navy with its quality and capability superiority. However, this is just one aspect of the issue. In the Indo-Pacific region, the United States is not fighting alone. Any regional ally or partner of the United States, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, and even Taiwan, possess a certain level of independent capability to resist the Chinese military, not to mention their combined strength under U.S. leadership.
While the Chinese Navy’s submarine construction faced setbacks, regional partners of the United States in the Western Pacific, such as Australia and Taiwan, are steadily progressing with their submarine development plans.
Exactly one year ago, on September 28, 2023, Taiwan’s first domestically built submarine, the “Sea Dragon,” was launched and is set to commission in 2025, with a total of 7 submarines planned for construction.
Aside from receiving technical support in weapon systems from the UK’s GL company and U.S.’s Lockheed Martin, the Sea Dragon-class submarine project also obtained technology, components, and manpower support from countries such as Australia, South Korea, India, Spain, and Canada.
The “Sea Dragon” submarine features a conventional diesel-electric power system. It measures 70 meters in length, 8 meters in width, and 18 meters in height, with an X-type rudder design. With a displacement of approximately 2,500 tons, the hull structure is made of high-strength HSLA-80 steel plates, enhancing the diving depth safety. The Sea Dragon is equipped with 18 American-made MK48 Mod.6 AT long-range heavyweight torpedoes, submarine-launched UGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, among others. The full ship system tests have been completed.
Although the Sea Dragon-class submarine may not compare to large oceangoing submarines, it is sufficient to meet the asymmetric strategic needs of the Republic of China Armed Forces and is fully capable in combat usage. Its configuration and combat capability are entirely adequate for Taiwan’s operational requirements in surrounding waters or even in broader sea areas, capable of engaging enemy ships in relatively distant waters, intercepting approaching Chinese vessels, including amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers, and when necessary, blockading sea lanes.
Meanwhile, the trilateral AUKUS cooperation between Australia, the UK, and the US is making progress. During the defense ministers’ meeting of the three countries on September 26, Australia and the UK signed a new bilateral agreement to ensure the steady development of the next-generation nuclear-powered submarines (SSN-AUKUS) project under the AusUKUS security partnership. Simultaneously, AUKUS partners are rapidly developing and providing hypersonic weapon technology and will conduct large-scale testing later this year.
Under the agreement, the US will sell five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by the early 2030s. By the mid-2030s, Australia and the UK will jointly construct and operate the new generation SSN-AUKUS nuclear submarines. With the addition of the AUKUS project and Virginia-class nuclear submarines, Australia will become the seventh country globally to possess nuclear submarines, following the US, Russia, China, the UK, France, and India. The new generation nuclear submarines developed under the AUKUS project will be nuclear-powered submarines equipped solely with conventional strike weapons.
To further enhance interoperability among AUKUS members, Australia’s new-generation nuclear submarines will have an expanded capability range, including artificial intelligence, networks, electronic warfare, hypersonic technology, information sharing, innovation, quantum capabilities, and underwater capabilities, among others. In essence, it will be a sharp new underwater beast armed with cutting-edge systems.
Australia is also eyeing remote precision-guided weapons from the US like Tomahawk cruise missiles, AGM-158B JASSM-ER extended-range joint air-to-surface missiles, AGM-158C LRASM anti-ship missiles, and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), and remains engaged in developing air-launched hypersonic missiles in collaboration with the US. Among these, the Tomahawk cruise missile comes in ship-launched and submarine-launched models, implying that the future Australian next-generation nuclear submarines will likely be equipped with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Australia’s procurement of nuclear submarines and various long-range precision-guided weapons will significantly bolster the offensive capabilities of the Australian military and disrupt the regional military balance.
Despite its massive submarine construction efforts, even with setbacks in its nuclear submarine development program, China is unlikely to halt its military expansion and efforts to vie for regional and international dominance.
However, whether China can achieve regional dominance will not solely depend on China itself. The incident of the Chinese submarine sinking is just a fragment accidentally revealed to the outside world from within China’s “black box.” There may be numerous similar untold stories within China’s “black box” that may never be known to the outside world.