The “Western Pacific Naval Forum Annual Conference” recently took place in Qingdao, with Vice Chairman of the People’s Liberation Army Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia stating that “the ocean should not be a showcase for flexing military muscles,” indirectly criticizing Western alliances with Indo-Pacific countries. However, experts believe that China is the instigator, continuously provoking neighboring regions in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, eliciting backlash from various countries who are united in upholding maritime peace.
Every two years, the “Western Pacific Naval Forum Annual Conference” started in Qingdao on Sunday (April 21), marking China’s re-hosting of the event after a decade. According to the Chinese side, delegations from 29 navy representatives attended, with this year’s theme being “shared destiny of the ocean,” emphasizing the establishment of a framework to avoid drone collisions at sea.
During the opening ceremony, Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia reiterated China’s stance against “maritime blockades,” emphasizing that “the ocean should not be a stage for countries to flaunt military power through gunboat diplomacy.” He also claimed that China has no intention of engaging in a cold or hot war with any country.
At a high-level symposium, Chinese Navy Commander Hu Zhongming proposed four initiatives: dialogue over confrontation, engagement over enmity, building foundations over walls, and adding bricks instead of chaos.
In response to the rhetoric from Chinese military leaders, Su Ziyun, Director of the National Defense Strategy and Resources Research Institute at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security, pointed out that China is the one initiating provocations. The attitude of various countries in countering China’s actions is clear, with the establishment of security mechanisms like AUKUS (Australia, UK, and the US), the US-Japan-South Korea alliance in Northeast Asia, and the emergence of the US-Japan-Philippines triangle, indicating the pressure China is facing.
Su Ziyun believes that China’s leaders are using a reverse causation narrative, lacking persuasive power. To change this trend, a shift towards the open and free Indo-Pacific approach is necessary, respecting countries’ rights to passage in relevant waters through dialogue and diplomacy, rather than resorting to Chinese-style gunboat diplomacy with coast guard vessels, military aircraft, or warships.
Notably, the Philippines, a member of the forum, did not attend the conference. Su Ziyun views this as a form of protest against China’s actions.
Recent conflicts in the disputed waters of the South China Sea between China and the Philippines have escalated, with Chinese coast guard vessels repeatedly using water cannons to attack Philippine ships, sparking strong reactions and social outcry in the Philippines.
Over the past decade, China has been constructing artificial islands in the South China Sea, militarizing these features. Former Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Harry Harris, warned about Beijing’s construction of a “Great Wall of Sand” in the South China Sea, having built seven artificial islands by 2018. In 2021, the Philippines discovered China’s plans for an eighth artificial island.
In March 2022, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, John C. Aquilino, stated that China had completely militarized at least three artificial islands in the South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles, lasers, jamming equipment, and combat aircraft.
Su Ziyun stressed that under these circumstances, the Philippines has likely decided to cooperate closely with the US, adopting a stance of resistance against China. While the Commander of the US Pacific Fleet attended the conference, the Philippines chose not to participate.
Last week, leaders from the US, Japan, and the Philippines held a historic trilateral summit, expressing “serious concerns” over China’s “dangerous and destabilizing behavior” in the South China Sea.
This week, the US and the Philippines are conducting the largest-ever “joint military exercise,” including island-seizing drills directly targeting the island disputes in the South China Sea.
In the 21st century, China has significantly enhanced its military power, intensifying harassment in surrounding waters. The US and Western international community have consistently called for maintaining maritime peace and normal navigation, urging against unilateral changes to the status quo.
In the Taiwan Strait, according to data from the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of China (Taiwan), China dispatched military aircraft into Taiwan’s southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) 1,709 times last year, showcasing a diverse range of types; in 2022, this number increased by 79% to 1,737 military aircraft sorties compared to the previous year.
In the East China Sea, Japan protests against China’s unilateral changes to the East China Sea’s status quo. The Chinese Foreign Ministry in Japan released its annual Diplomatic Blue Book last Tuesday (April 16), stating that “China is attempting to unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas, including the Diaoyu Islands (known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan), and continues to strengthen its military activities in the region, resulting in the most severe and complicated security environment around Japan since the war.”
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council criticized China last October for its attempts to unilaterally change the cross-strait status quo and its provocative actions threatening regional security, drawing widespread international condemnation and confirming Beijing’s role as a “troublemaker” in disrupting peace in the Taiwan Strait.
At the end of February this year, the European Parliament passed two annual assessment reports on the EU’s foreign and security policy, strongly condemning China’s ongoing military provocations against Taiwan, attempting to unilaterally change the peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait using force. It emphasized that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other, and only the democratically elected government of Taiwan can represent the people of Taiwan on the international stage.
Recently, the G7 released a statement expressing concerns about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, showing the increased attention to the region. Eu Xifu, Director of the Institute of Chinese Political-Military Affairs and Operational Concepts at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security, told Dajiyuan that while traditional European countries like Germany and France used to be indifferent to the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the Taiwan Strait issue, they have now shown some actions indicating concern about the Taiwan Strait region.
Eu Xifu stated, “Germany is also cooperating with Japan, increasing its navy, and deploying warships to the Asia-Pacific region. Countries like Canada and Australia have sent warships through the Taiwan Strait. So, should Europe follow suit, of course, China feels surrounded.”
“This is mainly a political play, not solely a military move to confront; it is a countermeasure on the diplomatic and military fronts against China’s provocations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.”
This “military diplomacy” event at the Western Pacific Naval Forum has drawn attention to the interaction between the two major military powers – the United States and China.
Stephen Koehler, Commander of the US Pacific Fleet, led the US delegation at the conference. During his speech, Koehler expressed gratitude for the valuable platform provided for high-level navy officials to exchange and cooperate.
Colonel Takuo Kobayashi, a senior officer of the Japanese Navy delegation, stated, “The Chinese Navy is rapidly strengthening its capabilities in the South China Sea, and I am closely monitoring its development.”
Regarding the comparison of naval strength between the US and China, Su Ziyun believes that first, China’s quantity of vessels is more significant, but the US boasts larger tonnage. The tonnage of US vessels is approximately 4.5 million tons, which is about 80% more than that of China. This signifies a technological difference between the two powers.
Secondly, there is a strategic distinction, where the US is an established maritime power while China is transitioning from a land power to a maritime power, developing a new concept of a blue-water navy. In its journey towards a blue-water navy, China’s adoption of gunboat diplomacy has incited multiple countries to push back against Beijing.
During the naval symposium, both sides demonstrated a dialogue; the US has been actively preparing various defense strategies, including strengthening alliances and configuring the Pacific air, land, and sea forces, as well as deploying medium-range missiles.
In October 2023, China appointed Dong Jun as Minister of National Defense. Su Ziyun believes this signals a change in China’s approach, showing a willingness to engage in discussions. The high-profile hosting of the Western Pacific Naval Forum indicates a strategic stance from China of talking and negotiating, showing that they are willing to engage in discussions when faced with resistance. This observation underscores the broader structure at play.
Su Ziyun said, “The US is always preparing for the worst, but not ruling out communication channels. So, in this aspect, the US is also teaching China to be a responsible major power.”
“Whenever China obstructs other countries’ vessels or aircraft, dangerous actions are often taken, like getting dangerously close, using laser interference, or flying in front to disrupt. All these are very risky behaviors.”
The South China Morning Post previously reported that Koehler would meet with Chinese counterparts during the conference. Koehler’s attendance underscores the necessity for enhanced exchanges and cooperation between military officials at various levels of the US and China to reduce misunderstandings.
Su Ziyun believes that there is a significant difference between a mature naval power like the US and the nascent Chinese navy. In this naval summit, the US is attempting to educate Beijing like a student, teaching about international etiquette, how to resolve disputes, essentially setting an example.
However, always prepared, if China initiates any military adventurism, it will be met with a robust response.