China’s latest customs data shows a drastic decline in the export volume of germanium and antimony, two core raw materials, while rare earths have seen a significant rebound. Analysts point out that China has been attempting to control the global high-tech industry chain with its advantage in raw materials but has not been able to fully accomplish it. The US and its allies are accelerating the promotion of diversified alternative solutions, strengthening industrial chain resilience. In the face of international cooperation for countermeasures, it has become imperative to restructure the global supply chain.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volumes of germanium and antimony, two key strategic minerals, have plummeted by 88% and 95% respectively from January to June after the implementation of export control measures. The export volumes have dropped to the lowest levels on record.
Rare earths were also included in the same control list in April this year, leading to a sharp decrease in export volume. However, with an agreement reached between Washington and Beijing, the export volume of rare earths rebounded significantly last month.
Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, analyzed that the sharp reduction in the export volume of germanium and antimony is due to China’s imposition of export bans on these key metals used in high-tech products such as semiconductors and satellites. This reflects China’s aim to restrict the supply of these crucial materials for the development of high-tech weaponry.
Shen Mingshi told Epoch Times that the significant rebound in the export of other rare earth elements may be attributed to their primary use in rare earth magnets, which have a substantial impact on the automotive industry, creating a more urgent demand. China may prioritize opening up exports of these kinds to avoid causing severe impacts on the automotive industries of Japan, Europe, and the US while still retaining control over materials related to high-tech weaponry.
“In addition, many countries are enhancing research on rare earth recycling technologies, leading to reduced demand for Chinese rare earths. This technological advancement may also be one of the reasons for the sharp decline in the export of germanium and antimony as countries seek to reduce reliance on a single source.”
Yao Yaoyuan, a professor at St. Thomas University’s International Studies Seminar, also analyzed that the decrease in exports of germanium and antimony is mainly due to the critical role these minerals play in batteries and high-tech products. China may aim to disrupt the supply chains of American future AI and electronic industries by restricting their exports.
However, a recent report by Reuters revealed that from December 2024 to April 2025, the US imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, nearly exceeding the total of the previous three years. During the same period, Thailand and Mexico have risen to become the top three markets for Chinese antimony exports, with these two countries not even in the top ten export destinations previously.
The report indicated that at least one Chinese-funded company is involved in such transshipment trade, showing that Chinese companies are using third countries to reroute antimony products to evade regulations.
The head of the Digital Freight Monitoring Platform Publican stated that the data reveals specific transshipment patterns, highlighting the “extremely creative” ways Chinese enterprises are evading regulations. An American business executive disclosed that they procure antimony products from manufacturers through Chinese agents, then disguise the goods with another name and transship them to the US via a third country in Asia, but this method is costly and risky.
Furthermore, Yao Yaoyuan believes that the US is also seeking to “disentangle” from China, which has disrupted mineral transshipments previously done through third parties like Thailand, thereby reducing export volumes.
Since China implemented export controls on germanium and antimony from 2023 to 2024, the US has simultaneously initiated countermeasures, including strengthening cooperation with allies, increasing domestic production capacity investment, and promoting relevant technological innovation to reduce dependence on China.
(Extended reading: Apple and MP Materials reached a $500 million deal to expand US rare earth supply)
Shen Mingshi mentioned that despite China’s imposition of bans, rare earths may still be transported to the US through other channels, but this is not the main reason for US negotiations. The core goal of the US is to significantly reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths, including searching for alternative sources, enhancing their own refining technologies, and diversifying imports.
Previously, China attempted to use rare earths as bargaining chips but was ultimately forced to resume partial exports to the US under international pressure, demonstrating the limitations of the so-called “rare earth weapon.”
Yao Yaoyuan stated that while China utilizes rare earths as negotiation leverage, it cannot completely restrict exports as it would heavily impact China’s rare earth industry. Until the US finds alternative markets, it still needs to import from China. Therefore, despite existing competition, both sides maintain a certain understanding in the rare earth industry to ensure basic supply.
He believes that China adopts a “restriction and release” strategy on rare earth exports. When China relaxes export restrictions, US companies bulk purchase to prepare for potential policy changes. This “you increase, I buy” situation shows that China dares not sever the supply of rare earths to the US completely; it’s just a matter of time, and the US will seize any opportunity to increase purchases.
Shen Mingshi analyzed that China will not fully open rare earth exports at once but will adopt a phased or incremental strategy. The US may gain priority access to the rare earths required by the automotive industry while actively seeking alternative sources to avoid excessive reliance on China for high-tech weapon development, thus enhancing its leverage in US-China relations.
However, whether the US can gain an advantage in the rare earth sector depends on the speed of developing alternative supply countries outside China. Most observers believe that in the next two to three years, the US will still find it challenging to completely break away from relying on the Chinese rare earth supply chain. However, actively seeking and developing new partners will help the US make progress in “disentangling” from China.
(Extended reading: Pentagon becomes largest shareholder of US rare earth mine, breaking reliance on China)
Currently, countries including the US, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Brazil, South Africa, and Vietnam are actively promoting projects related to the extraction, processing, and magnet manufacturing of strategic minerals, striving to build a more resilient supply chain system.
(Extended reading: Wyoming’s new mine field launches to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths)
It is claimed that Vietnam holds double the rare earth reserves of the US, at least three times that of Australia and India, and ten times that of Brazil. These resource-rich countries are expanding their production capacities, laying the groundwork for a diversified global supply chain.
Systematic cooperation between the US and its allies is being implemented globally. From rare earth extraction projects in Australia to precision processing technologies in Japan, from abundant resource reserves in Brazil to recycling innovation in the EU, a diversified global strategic mineral supply network is taking shape.
Yao Yaoyuan pointed out that China still controls 80% of the global rare earth production, making it easy for their export restrictions to disrupt the supply chain of AI and tech industries. The US is actively seeking to develop third-party rare earth markets to reduce dependence on China, including countries such as Ukraine, Africa, and Central and South American nations.
It is worth noting that China currently requires special export permits for rare earths; however, the related management mechanisms are not yet perfect, creating confusion that grants valuable strategic transformation time for other countries.
Additionally, advancements in rare earth recycling, alternative materials research, and efficient utilization technologies in various countries are fundamentally reshaping the global rare earth demand landscape. These developments not only reduce dependence on China but also provide technical support for building a more sustainable alternative supply chain.