On August 3, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi visited experts in Beidaihe, and it is widely believed that the CCP’s top leadership has initiated a two-week summer vacation in Beidaihe. Analysts suggest that this year’s Beidaihe vacation may involve substantive meetings, closely related to the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session and issues regarding power allocation within the CCP post-Xi Jinping era.
According to CCP state media, Cai Qi, a member of the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee and Secretary of the Central Secretariat, “visited experts during the summer vacation at the request of Xi Jinping” on August 3 in Beidaihe. He was accompanied by Shitai Feng, Minister of the CCP Central Organization Department, and Chen Yiqin, a State Councilor.
In the past, it has been customary for top CCP officials to go on vacation or hold meetings in Beidaihe from late July to early August, with high-ranking officials overseeing party construction or personnel affairs visiting experts as a symbolic gesture. Cai Qi’s public activity this time signifies that the top CCP leadership has entered the “Beidaihe time”.
Political commentator Tang Jingyuan pointed out that there have been significant changes in the political ecology of the top CCP leadership. Xi Jinping’s power has been severely weakened, with members of the “Xi family army” like Miao Hua and He Weidong facing purges. The Central Military Commission even issued notices to “eradicate” their “residual poison,” indicating that further purges targeting Xi Jinping’s faction may occur, making this Beidaihe meeting crucial.
Following the CCP’s 20th Congress, dozens of senior military leaders and industry figures have been detained, including two former Defense Ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Feng, as well as Miao Hua, the Director of the Political Work Department of the Central Military Commission, and He Weidong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission who has been missing since March this year.
On July 31, the Chinese Ministry of Defense held a reception for the “98th Anniversary of the Founding of the People’s Liberation Army” at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Members of the Central Military Commission, such as Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, and Zhang Shenmin, Secretary of the Military Discipline Commission, attended the event, with Defense Minister Dong Jun delivering a speech.
Reported on August 4 by Hong Kong’s “Sing Tao Daily,” compared to last year’s reception, this year’s main table was missing seven active generals, including Commanders of the Armed Police Force Wang Chunning, Political Commissar Zhang Hongbing, Navy Commander Hu Zhongming, and Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi, with no representatives from the Political Work Department of the Military Commission or the Central Theater Command participating.
Around August 1, there was an absence of the usual promotion ceremonies for new top-ranking generals in the CCP’s military, sparking speculation.
It is conservatively estimated that out of the 79 generals promoted during Xi Jinping’s tenure, 22 have either been investigated, dismissed, or gone missing, with a proportion exceeding 20%.
During a Politburo meeting on July 30, it was decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP would be held in Beijing in October. Previously, a military parade was announced to take place in September in Beijing.
Recently, various rumors have surfaced about senior CCP figures taking control behind the scenes, potential disruptions surrounding the Fourth Plenary Session, and even news about successors to Xi Jinping circulating in multiple versions.
Tang Jingyuan believes that there is a close connection between this year’s Beidaihe meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session in October. Following the CCP’s political characteristics, major decisions are often made at smaller meetings with final approvals at larger meetings. Matters to be addressed at the Fourth Plenary Session will likely be discussed and finalized during the Beidaihe meeting.
Researcher Shen Mingshi of the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security told The Epoch Times that if there is a meeting in Beidaihe, it could involve discussions on finer details regarding personnel matters related to the Fourth Plenary Session, but these details may not be easily discernible to outsiders.
Shen Mingshi noted that rumors surrounding the Beidaihe meetings have been abundant over the years, including various speculations of power struggles. This year, attention will be drawn to whether figures like Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Wang Qishan, or Zeng Qinghong will be present in Beidaihe. Regardless of their presence, the senior officials in Beijing will exert pressure on Xi Jinping, but it remains uncertain if Xi Jinping will yield easily in the end.