Starting from October 6, Californians will begin to receive mail-in ballots for the 50th redistricting referendum, with voting set to conclude on November 4. Californians previously voted in 2008 and 2010 to hand over the redistricting task to an independent commission. So why is the state legislature now proposing the 50th referendum to reclaim that power?
In 2008, a coalition of Californians proposed Proposition 11, which passed with a 50.8% approval rate. It transferred the redistricting power of state legislators from the state assembly to the “California Citizens Redistricting Commission,” composed of 5 Democrats, 5 Republicans, and 4 non-partisan individuals.
In 2010, physicist and political donor Charles T. Munger, Jr. initiated Proposition 20, which was approved by Californians with a 61.2% majority vote. The redistricting power for congressional districts was also shifted from the state legislature to the “California Citizens Redistricting Commission.”
In the same year, the contentious Proposition 27 aimed to abolish the “Redistricting Commission,” but Californians opposed it with a 59.4% vote, preventing the state legislature from regaining control.
Regarding the 50th proposal, a “Yes” vote would support amending state law to transfer the districting power from 2026 to 2030 to the state legislature, abolishing the “California Citizens Redistricting Commission,” and the existing districting map.
On August 21, the California Senate and Assembly passed AB604 with a 30:9 and 5:20 majority, respectively, with Governor Newsom signing it the same day. Currently, Democrats hold a dominant position in the state legislature. Handing over districting power to the state legislature could lead to a “one-party dictatorship.” The new district maps outlined in AB604 may flip the districts of the current five Republican congressional members to Democratic-majority areas.
A “No” vote would oppose amending state law, thus retaining the district boundaries drawn by the 14-member “California Citizens Redistricting Commission” until a new delineation after the 2030 census.
In a speech outside the Governor’s Mansion in late July, Governor Newsom stated that California Democrats cannot stand by while Texas undergoes redistricting. Rumors suggest that he might run for president in 2028 after his governorship ends.
Regarding the redistricting turmoil in Texas, Newsom stated, “They’re not kidding around. We can’t afford to kid around either. We have to fight fire with fire.”
The 50th referendum would also add a provision to state law stating California’s support for using fair, independent, and non-partisan redistricting commissions nationwide. This seems inconsistent with the measure’s attempt to abolish the “California Citizens Redistricting Commission.”
Based on voter trends in the presidential election last November, the newly drawn district maps would lead to significant shifts.
According to Ballotpedia, in the 1st district where Republican Doug LaMalfa won with 65.3% in 2024, the new district would lean Democratic by 37.2%, resulting in a Democratic advantage of 12.2%.
Similarly, in the 3rd district won by Kevin Kiley with 55.5%, the new district would tilt 14% toward Democrats, giving them a 10.2% advantage.
In the 22nd district, David G. Valadao’s victory with 53.4% would result in a 4% Democratic tilt, providing a slight 1.8% advantage to Republicans.
The 41st district won by Ken Calvert with 51.7% would see a 20.2% Democratic shift, creating a 14.3% Democratic advantage.
Lastly, the 48th district won by Darrell Issa with 59.3% would lean Democratic by 18.4%, giving Democrats a 3.1% advantage.
Additionally, the Republican advantages in the 5th district with Tom McClintock, the 20th district with Vince Fong, the 23rd district with Jay Obernolte, and the 40th district with Young Kim have all increased. However, areas with close voter registration between the two parties may lean further towards the Democrats.
As of September 30, supporters have contributed approximately $90.9 million while opponents have donated $40.2 million towards the 50th proposal. It has become the seventh-highest funded proposal since 1999, with donations still increasing.
Governor Newsom’s Vote Measures Committee is leading the campaign for supporters. The largest contributors include the Fund for Policy Reform founded by George Soros with a $10 million donation, the Democratic majority PAC donating $9.9 million, respectively; the California Teachers Association and the National Education Association donating $3 million each, the California Democratic Party contributing $2.91 million, and the California Nurses Association with a donation of $2.64 million.
On the opposing side of the 50th proposal, Charles T. Munger, Jr. has contributed approximately $32.8 million. He previously supported the creation of the California Citizens Redistricting Commission.
The Republican Congressional Leadership Fund opposed the 50th proposal with a $5 million donation, and a foundation involving former House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy pledged $1 million. ◇