On December 4, Emerson College and “California Political Insider” jointly released the latest polling results for the 2026 California gubernatorial election. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, leads with 13% support, closely followed by several other candidates.
Currently, political commentator Steve Hilton and Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell both have 12% support, while former Democratic Congresswoman Katie Porter’s support has dropped to 11%. Other candidates collectively received 20% support. 31% of voters are still undecided.
Despite the two Republican candidates leading, winning in California where Democratic voters are the majority is not easy. Bianco, with 32 years of experience in the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department, has endorsements from 54 out of 58 sheriffs in California. He promises to bring common-sense reforms to the state, reduce government oversight and taxes, restore the broken California, and improve the lives of Californians.
Hilton has been touring various counties in California and posting videos on social media discussing issues facing the counties and the state as a whole, such as high gas and living prices, abuse and fraud in social welfare and public services, illegal immigration, agricultural water shortages, etc., making his views easily accessible and understandable to people.
Porter, who was leading in the polls recently, saw a decline in support after the release of two videos. One where she threatened journalists and refused to answer questions, and another where she berated her staff, raising questions about her judgment and temperament.
Swalwell’s support quickly rose to become the front-runner among Democratic candidates, insisting on party policies and an anti-Trump stance. Swalwell has been a Congressman since 2013 and despite his exposed relationship with Chinese spy Fang Fang (or Christine Fang) leading to his removal from the House Intelligence Committee, he has consistently garnered high votes in his congressional district.
On the Democratic side, former Los Angeles Mayor and former Speaker of the State Assembly Antonio Villaraigosa received 5% support, billionaire Thomas Steyer received 4%, and former US Health Secretary Xavier Becerra also received 4% support.
In the poll, Porter received 34% positive ratings and 34% negative ratings; Swalwell received 24% positive and 23% negative ratings; among the two Republican candidates, Bianco received 21% positive and 17% negative ratings, while Hilton received 20% positive and 14% negative ratings. While the two Democratic candidates received higher positive ratings, their negative ratings are also relatively high.
The poll was conducted on December 1-2 with 1,000 registered voters in California. The primary will be held in June 2026, where the top two vote-getters from all candidates (across parties) will advance to the gubernatorial election in November.
Previously, different polls in California have shown varying results and have been evolving. The Emerson College survey also showed that 34% of people believe that the biggest issue facing California is the economy, followed by housing affordability at 25%, immigration at 10%, threats to democracy at 10%, and healthcare at 9%.
Among those who prioritize economic issues, 7% believe California’s economy is very good, 27% believe it is good, 30% believe it is average, and 36% believe it is poor.
Of the surveyed individuals, 51% believe Governor Newsom is primarily responsible for California’s economic situation, while 27% blame President Trump, and 5% each blame former President Biden and the Republican majority in Congress. Additionally, 12% chose “none of the above.”
Furthermore, 60% of respondents believe that large-scale expulsion of illegal immigrants is a bad thing, while 40% believe it is a good thing.