US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s three-day visit to China has come to an end, culminating in a meeting with Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping on the last day. However, experts believe that the meeting yielded minimal results with no substantial breakthrough. The performances of both sides showed vulnerabilities, with the US possessing many leverage points. Due to differing ideological values, the distance between the US and China is gradually widening.
During the final meeting with Xi Jinping, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up his three-day visit to China last Friday. Xi Jinping expressed that “the two countries should be partners, not adversaries” and that they should “treasure harmony and prioritize stability”.
According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the two sides reached five points of consensus regarding enhancing communication efforts and striving for stable relationship development. The concrete outcomes only included an agreement to hold the inaugural meeting of the artificial intelligence dialogue and to host a senior-level dialogue on tourism next month.
The primary demands from the US to China included “refraining from providing military support to Russia, achieving fair trade, and ensuring stability in the Asia-Pacific region including the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait”.
Experts generally agree that the two sides failed to achieve any substantial breakthroughs during the talks.
Assistant Researcher at the National Security Institute of the Taiwan Defense Security Research Institute, Chung Zhi-dong, analyzed to Epoch Times on the 29th that the most significant substantial outcome of Blinken’s visit to China was demonstrating the mechanism for maintaining high-level dialogues between the US and China, which not only aligns with the shared interests of both nations but also showcases a responsible attitude of major nations to the international community.
He stated that essentially the US and China would not expect concrete improvements in their disagreements on major issues, and they will maintain a dialogue principle to communicate and resolve their differences.
Professor of Finance and Economics at the National University of Yunlin in Taiwan, Zheng Zheng-bing, believes that the actual outcomes were limited or minor. Cooperation on issues like fentanyl, AI, future collaboration in green energy, personnel exchanges including expanding student exchanges, are relatively small in scale.
“The main focus of the visit is to reduce conflict. Whether it is possible to reverse this conflict, what we can see now is that firstly, the conflict has not been reversed fundamentally because both parties have their own opinions on key issues,” Zheng analyzed.
“Moreover, the substantive cooperation between China (CCP) and Russia is increasing, and the tension is escalating. Looking at the effectiveness from a conflict perspective, it is limited for now, but there is a kind of relaxation that will not lead to an immediate conflict. The possibility of a hostile conflict is decreasing, but in the long term, this conflict may not decrease and may even intensify.”
Zheng further explained that the US is clear in its stance, willing to engage in a cold war but avoiding a hot war. Recent global situations have increased the possibility of a hot war.
Following the Blinken-Xi meeting, Xinhua, the official news agency of the CCP, reported that the US is not seeking a “new cold war,” does not seek to change the Chinese (CCP) system, does not aim to contain China’s development, does not intend to oppose China through alliance relationships, and has no intention of conflicting with China (CCP). The US adheres to a one-China policy and hopes to maintain communication with China, among other statements.
However, the Blinken press conference held by the US did not mention the aforementioned “four nos and one not.”
Zheng pointed out that Beijing emphasized the “four nos and one not” because it reveals the soft underbelly of the CCP. Refraining from seeking a new cold war? Whether it is a cold war or a hot war, it would cause significant harm to them; not seeking to change the Chinese system? Color revolutions are what the CCP fears most; not challenging the CCP’s ruling position? It is also because the current economic situation is poor, and there is growing dissatisfaction and challenges to Xi Jinping from the public.
“Furthermore, not seeking to contain China and not supporting Taiwan independence. However, although the US does not explicitly support Taiwan independence, in reality, the US is forming more alliances, deploying more military exercises around Taiwan, and increasing military deployments in the region,” Zheng added.
Just before Blinken’s visit to China, US President Biden signed legislation providing military financing to Taiwan and supplemental defense articles and services to Taiwan and regional partners.
Zheng analyzed that the CCP threatens Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait, harasses the Philippines in the South China Sea, extends to the East China Sea and the Middle East, and continues to establish military bases. “The biggest conflict actually arises because the CCP wants to challenge US hegemony, aiming to become the hegemon in Asia or even globally.”
“This reflects that the expansion and aggression capabilities of the CCP in the military realm are continually rising, which is the source of all conflicts. The US sees this attempt, so it must suppress it in technology and military technology, unite global allies to counter it, and must provide stronger and more substantive support to Taiwan,” he continued.
When Blinken arrived in Shanghai for the first stop, only the director of the Shanghai Municipal Office of Foreign Affairs came to greet him. The location of Blinken’s room coincidentally offers a view of the “Zibo Ship” from the window, which was seen as a subtle warning.
“The CCP actually shows its strong and weak sides,” analyzed Chung Zhi-dong. “It has not yet reached the conditions to formally fall out with the US, especially in military and economic aspects. Not to mention that the CCP has many high-ranking officials with funds hidden in the US and even immigration. I believe US intelligence agencies hold investment information of these top Chinese officials in the US, as well as their bank accounts.”
The Washington Post previously reported that US intelligence agencies are investigating the seven members of the CCP Standing Committee, and the report “The Wealth and Corruption Activities of the Communist Party of China Leadership” is currently being compiled.
“I believe that if this information is made public, it would be a deadly weapon for the top CCP officials. So, as I mentioned earlier, the CCP shows a strong front but is actually weak. It currently does not have the conditions to confront the US,” Chung stated.
Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that the White House is trying to draft a new punitive measure against China that includes imposing sanctions on Chinese banks and expelling them from the global financial settlement system, SWIFT.
Zheng believes that the most powerful weapon the US can employ currently is through sanctions using the global trade SWIFT system.
He said, “Before Blinken’s visit to China, the US had already presented clear evidence showing that the reason Russia could maintain a certain undefeated momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine was mainly due to the crucial military supplies and key components provided by the CCP, as well as various financing or financial transfers through Chinese banks.”
“So this is the first time the US government issued a warning. If these Chinese financial institutions continue to support Russia, the US will put them on the sanctions list and remove them from the SWIFT trading system, which could be a huge blow to the CCP. This could have a huge impact on individual Chinese banks, financial systems, and national finances.”
Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Beijing has been striving to avoid settling in US dollars or euros and actively bypassing the SWIFT system. However, as Zheng explained, due to China’s significant economic size, the current alternatives are still limited. Therefore, the potential punishment via SWIFT could have a deterrent effect on the CCP.
Another deterrent weapon, as Zheng pointed out, is tariffs. “When Janet Yellen came, she mentioned the New Three items and stated that China is overproducing. If you do not adjust your production methods and continue to export to the US, the EU, and the rest of the world, another advantageous weapon the US has is tariffs,” he emphasized.
He mentioned that China’s exports to the West have significantly dropped. “If the US and the EU raise tariffs jointly, it would be a deadly blow to the Chinese economy. This is a significant threat to the legitimacy of the CCP’s rule and to Xi Jinping’s long-term governance,” Zheng noted.
Chung Zhi-dong pointed out that in the process of US-China competition, the CCP’s biggest weakness is that it does not have as many allies as the US does. Beijing only has a few countable allies, with Russia being their most important ally.
He predicted that if the CCP’s support for Russia becomes more apparent, as a countermeasure, the US in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea will actually become a vicious cycle.
“The EU has made it very clear that its relationship with Beijing is dependent on Beijing’s stance towards Russia, so we can see that the US and these European countries have gradually lost patience with the CCP’s indirect support to Russia and its stance on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the warnings issued to Beijing have become increasingly stern,” Chung explained.
He said that if the CCP continues to support Russia, the US and Western countries will take a more severe stand by countering the CCP, even resorting to sanctions. Economically, diplomatically, we can see that this development is likely.
Zheng also analyzed, saying, “The biggest problem for China (CCP) now is that the economic situation is not good; it’s a mess. We saw a very bad situation in 2023, just the corporate profits announced this month show economic contraction, severe inadequacy of domestic demand, and production. This will affect the CCP’s ruling foundation.”
Moreover, “While the CCP’s military expansion is rapid, they have evaluated themselves and do not consider themselves a match for the US at the moment. Therefore, they continuously upgrade their military capabilities in the navy, air force, missile deployments, and nuclear deployments, but they still need time in military deployment, so in this aspect, they are reliant on the US,” Zheng explained.
He stated that the US is a democratic and free country, hoping to deter totalitarian states worldwide rather than engage in actual warfare. “However, the situation currently indicates the Russo-Ukrainian war is showing signs of expansion, and the conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, with North Korea also frequently provoking. For the US, how to de-escalate and constrain through allies to avoid military conflict is a top priority.”
Regarding the future outlook of US-China relations, Chung Zhi-dong believes, “What we are currently observing is a competitive situation without any signs of improvement, but rather a continued deteriorating trend. Of course, both the US and China hope to control the negative development of this competition through dialogues.”
He stated that the main purpose of Blinken’s visit to China clearly underscored that they will not concede to the CCP. Whether in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, trade, technological competition, and even the current stance on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the US’s attitude is unlikely to change, just as Beijing’s stance will remain unchanged.
“This positioning of drawing red lines on both sides shows that this is currently a competitive situation, a game of sorts,” Chung said.
Looking ahead, Zheng Zheng-bing believes, “The three main points to pay attention to in the future are, first, whether the US is willing to relax economic and technological sanctions on China. Second, the US has been warning about tariff sanctions and SWIFT sanctions. Will there be substantial, substantial sanctions?”
“In terms of the global situation, the CCP is mired in contradictions. Xi Jinping has great personal ambition, and not everyone within the CCP fully supports him. People around him don’t completely support him, whether it’s confronting the US, facing Taiwan, or going to war,” he added.
Externally, “The CCP is in a dilemma. How to deal with so-called authoritarian alliances with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and how to respond to warnings from the US and EU,” Zheng further elaborated.
Chung Zhi-dong stated, “The most crucial aspect, of course, is the competition of ideologies. We can see that the entire US continues to emphasize that Blinken has been saying this these days, the US will defend its values and interests, demonstrating to a considerable extent the clear ideological conflict between the US and China.”
“Differences in these ideologies and values will make the perceived differences between the two sides even more apparent and stronger,” he concluded.