On April 24th, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Shanghai for his second visit to China during his tenure. Blinken is expected to discuss issues such as the Taiwan Strait, combating the spread of fentanyl, Chinese assistance to Russia, and the South China Sea with Chinese officials. The outcome of Blinken’s visit is drawing international attention.
Blinken’s visit to China is scheduled from April 24th to 26th, with plans to visit both Beijing and Shanghai. He will meet with business leaders, students, and hold talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, with a potential meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The timing of Blinken’s visit to China coincides with the upcoming inauguration of Taiwanese President-elect and Democratic Progressive Party Chairperson, Lai Ching-te, on May 20th. Blinken is expected to urge China to exercise restraint during the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president.
Prior to Blinken’s visit, on April 22nd, a senior official in charge of North American and Oceanian affairs at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a media briefing that the U.S. must not cross certain red lines, with the Taiwan issue being the foremost red line that cannot be crossed.
Professor Chen Bingkui from the School of International Affairs at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University commented that there may be some communication between the U.S. and China on the Taiwan issue. Blinken may not specifically discuss policies following Lai Ching-te’s assumption of office with China. However, it is typical for the U.S. to communicate its position with China to prevent the situation in the Taiwan Strait from escalating.
Dr. Wu Se-Zhi, Director of the China Research Center at a Taiwanese think tank, expressed that Blinken’s visit to China at this particular time shows Washington’s emphasis on peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. hopes that China will refrain from making unilateral or aggressive moves towards Taiwan before May 20th.
Before Blinken’s visit, China had intensified pressure in the Taiwan Strait issue by continuing to disrupt Taiwan with military aircraft and ships, along with new pressure tactics.
Ouy Xi-fu, Director of the Chinese Communist Party-Military and Operational Concepts Research Institute at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, highlighted China’s recent announcement of international aviation routes such as M503, W123, W122, and W121. These routes have raised concerns as they encroach upon Taiwan’s airspace and exert pressure on Taiwan at sea.
Dr. Wu Se-Zhi also pointed out that China had initiated the eastward shift of the M503 route in mid to late April. This move aims to unilaterally alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait before May 20th, which poses a significant challenge and concern for the United States.
In evaluating the situation across the Strait, the U.S. anticipates increased pressure from China on Taiwan, with heightened military intimidation likely before May 20th. Blinken’s key objective in this visit is to urge China to exercise restraint.
Besides the Taiwan issue, preventing Chinese support to the Russian defense industry is another critical topic that Blinken is expected to address during his visit to China.
On the day before Blinken’s arrival in Shanghai, The Wall Street Journal revealed on April 23rd that due to concerns about China indirectly aiding Russia, the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions that could sever certain Chinese banks’ connections to the global financial system. These Chinese banks play a crucial role in commercial exports to Russia.
U.S. officials stated that if diplomatic efforts fail to persuade Chinese authorities to regulate exports to Russia, sanctions on Chinese banks could be an escalated option.
During the G7 summit prior to the visit, Blinken mentioned that China has become a primary supplier to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, providing crucial weapon parts to Moscow. He explicitly warned that if China assists Russia, “it will bear consequences.”
Ahead of Blinken’s visit, the House Committee on China released a report on the fentanyl epidemic. The investigation found that the Chinese Communist Party provided funding and incentives to companies openly trafficking fentanyl materials. Chinese authorities even own multiple companies associated with illegal drug trafficking.
In a commentary, Tang Jing-yuan noted that the Chinese government, known for its authoritarian surveillance state, could not claim unawareness of these companies’ large-scale production and export of illicit drugs. He suggested that China is deliberately engaging in unrestricted warfare against the U.S. through government actions.
Regarding the outcomes of Blinken’s discussions, Dr. Wu Se-Zhi expressed skepticism about reaching any significant agreement in the fight against drug crimes. He believes that achieving mutual cooperation in this direction might be overly optimistic.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted in a briefing before Blinken’s visit that the fentanyl issue is not China’s problem or creation, and suggested collaboration on law enforcement actions. They urged the U.S. to address Chinese concerns reciprocally.
With regards to China’s advocacy for U.S. action, Dr. Wu Se-Zhi pondered on what China truly fears by repeatedly pressing the U.S. He emphasized the importance of Washington upholding international order, while China employs a level of coercion and threat. Zhu also emphasized the necessity for China to demonstrate sincerity in restoring communication channels with the U.S.
China’s request for U.S. action includes refraining from attacking or tarnishing normal Sino-Russian relations and immediately halting unilateral sanctions on Chinese entities and individuals.
Dr. Wu Se-Zhi underscored that the U.S. stance essentially upholds international political norms, while China employs a degree of coercion and threat. He highlighted that China must recognize the U.S.’s role and demonstrate a willingness to engage in re-establishing bilateral communication channels.
In Blinken’s discussions with China, other topics to be discussed include Chinese provocations in the South China Sea, Middle East issues, enhancing military exchanges, and initiating dialogues on artificial intelligence risks and security.