This year’s Black Friday in the United States is expected to see the largest shopping frenzy in history, with total online and in-store sales in November and December expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time. However, due to inflation pressures and tariff impacts, retailers are offering discounts at a reduced rate compared to previous years, leading to a potential decrease in consumer spending.
According to a report by Reuters on Monday (November 24), the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that this year’s five-day shopping season from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday will see 186.9 million people shopping either in stores or online, higher than last year’s 183.4 million and setting a new record. However, the crucial sales growth for retailers in December is expected to slow compared to last year.
New York resident and second-hand goods aggregator Kate Sanner noted that prices in stores “seem to have gone up.” Last year, she spent around $500 on gifts, but this year she has cut her budget to $300, focusing only on specific items with discounts.
Thanksgiving falls on November 27th this year, giving retailers an extra day for promotions. To compete for market share, major retailers have launched early discounts: Walmart started its promotions in three phases from November 14th, with members able to shop early; Amazon kicked off its Black Friday deals week last Thursday (November 20); and Macy’s has opened a dedicated Black Friday page.
The NRF predicts that total online and in-store sales in November and December will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% to 4.2%, but still lower than last year’s 4.8% increase.
Amid rising prices and increased living costs, some consumers are tightening their budgets due to other necessary expenses. Liz Sweeney, a marketer living in Boise, Idaho, mentioned that her family’s health insurance premiums will significantly increase next year, forcing her to reduce non-essential spending. She said, “In 2024, we spent nearly $2,000 on gifts, but this year our budget is only $750.” She plans to skip electronic products and big-ticket items, focusing on shoes, books, and kitchen supplies.
Despite this, overall savings for American households remain ample. Data from Bank of America in November shows that household savings across income levels are higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019, with consumers not tapping into their savings significantly for spending.
NRF’s Chief Economist Mark Mathews pointed out that despite “consumer sentiment being weak, the fundamentals remain strong for American households.”
NRF forecasts that the average spending per person on gifts and holiday items such as gifts, decorations, cards, food, and candy will be $890 this year, slightly lower than last year’s $902. Among 8,427 surveyed consumers, nearly two-thirds said they would wait until the Thanksgiving weekend to shop, higher than 59% in 2024, with older consumers driving this trend.
Founder of Consumer World, Edgar Dworsky, stated that “judging the best time to buy this year is visibly more challenging.” Many early bird promotions before Black Friday no longer guarantee the same deals on the actual day as popular items may have already sold out.
He noted that retailers like Kohl’s, JC Penney, and Macy’s have in the past offered discounts, coupons, and discount bundles to reduce prices of small appliances to as low as $5, but many discounts are not as prevalent this year. For example, Kohl’s is offering toaster ovens, blenders, and electric skillets for $9.99 each without discounts, though customers can use a 15% coupon.
Jessica Ramirez, founder of consumer consulting firm Consumer Collective, mentioned, “There are fewer promotions in physical stores and online this year, with many items being sold at full price.”
She added, “Even when promotions are available, they are limited-time offers, meaning the promotion period is short and the duration is also limited.”
While some retailers have scaled back on promotional efforts, Walmart has announced significant markdowns for Black Friday this year.
According to Walmart’s website, this year’s Black Friday promotions include: the 85-inch TCL Roku TV originally priced at $678 reduced to $498; last year’s featured 75-inch Vizio TV discounted by $120; and a Blackstone outdoor griddle reduced from $224 to $157.