Following the epidemic in China, the economy has continued to stagnate, leading to a decline in the desire for childbirth and a sharp drop in population numbers. According to the latest data, the number of births in most provinces has significantly decreased, with many populous provinces experiencing a decline of over 50%.
McKinsey & Company conducted research and analysis on the peak birth rates over the past 20 years and compared them with data from 2024. The results revealed that the peak birth rates in various provinces were concentrated in 2016 and 2017, followed by a general decline. Shandong province, known as the “most fertile,” saw a decrease of 63% in birth rates. Other populous provinces such as Hunan at 60%, Hubei at 58%, Anhui at 57%, Jilin at 55%, Jiangxi at 53%, and Fujian at 50% also showed significant declines.
Post-80s, post-90s, and even post-2000s have become the main groups choosing not to marry and have children in the current context.
Wang Li, a post-80s individual, who has not married yet and lacks stable employment, expressed to the media that the pressure of life is too great now. Given the current social environment that cannot provide the necessary conditions for children, she would rather choose not to have children, as she does not wish for them to suffer like she does.
Wang Li mentioned that in the past, it was considered abnormal for individuals from the post-70s and post-80s generation not to marry and have children. However, now, not marrying has become normalized.
“I know a lot of post-90s young people around me who do not date or marry. Their mindset is: why get married? Why have children? Can’t we make a living alone?” Wang Li said.
Recently, 13 provinces in China have successively released the “2024 National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin”. The data indicates that 8 provinces have a negative natural population growth rate. Economically developed provinces like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan have experienced significant population declines. Shandong’s natural population growth rate is -1.67‰, Jiangsu’s is -2.7‰, and Sichuan’s is -3.02‰.
Renowned Chinese social scientist Zhang Jiadun stated in an article in a news magazine that the reasons for China’s declining population are deep-seated societal changes, continued economic decline, and deepening feelings of depression. Presently, young people in China consider themselves as the “last generation.” One contributing factor to their reluctance to have children is the “One-Child Policy” introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979. During the period of its enforcement, China’s fertility rate steadily dropped from 2.9 births per woman to 1.1 in 2015.
Gao Feng, a post-80s individual, expressed to the media that most people from the post-80s and post-90s are the only children in their families who are currently burdened with supporting both their elderly parents and children. They are struggling with mortgage payments and unemployment pressure. Upon the recent relaxation of the family planning policy in China, which even requires some regions to have a second or third child, Gao Feng stated, “This really does not allow post-80s and post-90s individuals to live properly.”
Due to the decrease in the number of births, students majoring in related fields are facing difficulties in employment. Yang Ying, a graduate in early childhood education in 2024, has not been able to find a job in her field. She mentioned that due to the significant decrease in the number of births in China in recent years, many kindergartens have closed down, leaving her classmates unemployed. Some have transitioned to elementary education, while others are preparing to take postgraduate exams next year.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) began implementing the “Two-Child Policy” in 2016 and further eased restrictions with the “Three-Child Policy” in 2021, but both policies have not yielded positive results.
Business owner Zhao Jun commented to the media, “The reason why China has become like this is because the Communist Party is unreliable. It thought that by relaxing the two-child and three-child policies, there would be a population boom – which is impossible. It’s too overconfident.”
Zhao Jun added, “The individuals from the post-90s and post-2000s are not avoiding marriage and childbirth. Who can afford to buy a house at current housing prices? With a monthly salary of 5000 yuan, how can I afford it? I also want to get married and have children, but where do I get the money from?”
After the epidemic, the number of deaths in China exceeded the number of births, leading to a continued reduction in the total population size. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on January 17, 2025, the total population of China is estimated at about 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million people from 2023, indicating a continuous decline in the population.
However, some analysts believe that given the consistent data falsification by the CCP, the actual decrease in the population may be higher than the published data.