On September 4th, the China-Africa Cooperation Forum opened amid challenges in the global economy and sluggish domestic demand, leading to obstacles in China-Europe trade. Despite Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping’s emphasis on contributing to the “Global South,” China’s call for African countries to buy more Chinese goods at the forum raised concerns. Experts pointed out that the dynamics of China-Africa relations have subtly changed.
During a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on September 2nd, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed his desire to reduce the trade deficit between South Africa and China.
Following the meeting between Ramaphosa and Xi, the two countries issued a joint statement on the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era,” focusing on promoting trade balance.
Reuters noted that this highlighted a challenge for Xi Jinping in persuading African countries to purchase more Chinese products, as China failed to fulfill its promise made at the 2021 China-Africa Cooperation Forum to buy $300 billion worth of African products.
Amid criticisms from the US and EU regarding China’s industrial overcapacity and restrictions on the export of Chinese solar panels and electric cars, Beijing is striving to find new buyers in Africa. China has adjusted its loan conditions to African countries, allocating more funds to build solar power plants and electric vehicle factories while reducing investment in large infrastructure projects.
However, Angola’s Finance Minister Vera Daves De Sousa mentioned in an interview with Reuters on September 3rd, ahead of the China-Africa Summit in Beijing, that if Angola is to increase imports of Chinese products such as solar panels and electric cars, China needs to increase its financing to Angola. She expressed Angola’s aspiration for a new approach involving greater private sector participation through public-private partnerships to achieve broader goals.
China provided $4.61 billion in loans to African countries last year, with Angola receiving the most loans, accounting for over half of the $4.61 billion. By last year, Angola had accumulated a total of $46 billion in Chinese loans. However, Angola currently owes China approximately $17 billion, representing around 40% of its external debt. Angola now needs to allocate $150-200 million per month to repay these debts.
Professor Ding Shufan from the International Affairs School at National Chengchi University in Taiwan mentioned that China may have made many promises in past China-Africa forums but failed to fulfill them, citing Xi Jinping’s big pledges to Nepal in previous years that turned out to be empty promises. Hence, African countries are equally demanding China to fulfill these commitments.
Ding pointed out that many countries, not just African nations but also Southeast Asian countries, face deficits in exports to China. China’s current economic strategy involves exporting products, which raises concerns, fears, and opposition from many countries.
The China-Africa Cooperation Forum Beijing Summit will be held from September 4th to 6th, with Xi Jinping set to attend and deliver a speech on the 5th.
Ahead of the summit, the Chinese Ambassador to South Africa, Wu Peng, mentioned that one of the focus areas will be “supporting green development in Africa,” emphasizing that the forum will concentrate on the energy transition needs of African countries, with China encouraging Chinese companies to invest.
Voice of America reported on August 29th that China, facing overcapacity challenges, intends to promote green products at the African summit.
Paul Nantulya, a researcher at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, explained that promoting green growth in Africa involves African countries obtaining technology through loans or direct purchases, ultimately benefiting China.
However, the state-controlled media CGTN criticized the notion of oversupplying capacity, stating that China-Africa cooperation brings new opportunities for Africa’s development.
Associate Professor Chen Shimin from the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University stated that China has been whitewashing its actions in Africa, portraying them as “new opportunities” for Africa. However, looking at the Belt and Road Initiative, many countries have fallen into debt traps.
Chen noted that Xi Jinping is pushing for “new efficient production capacity manufacturing” to tackle economic difficulties. Yet, with products like electric cars, solar panels, and batteries that the domestic market cannot consume, China seeks to export them abroad. Facing trade disputes and tariffs from Europe, China has resorted to dumping cheap electric cars in Africa, Latin America, or Southeast Asian countries. However, these countries may lack infrastructure for electric vehicle charging stations. Even if Chinese cars are affordable, people in these countries may still be unable to afford them.
Since the establishment of the China-Africa Cooperation Forum in 2000, particularly after setting up the China-Africa Development Fund in 2006, China’s economic influence in Africa has significantly increased. However, the current situation has become somewhat delicate.
China’s official acknowledgment is that its economy is declining. Against this backdrop, will Xi Jinping’s famous “generosity” at the China-Africa Summit still shine, or is Beijing’s support for Africa waning?
Chen Shimin mentioned that China has been exerting efforts in Africa for twenty years, gradually enhancing its influence in the continent, especially in aiding these countries in economic development under authoritarian regimes, known as the so-called “Beijing model.” However, in the past five years, especially after the pandemic, China’s financial constraints have limited its support to African countries.
He stated that there have been subtle changes in China’s relationships with these countries in recent years. For instance, the unmet promise at the 2021 China-Africa Summit to purchase $300 billion in African products and the continued dumping of cheap electric cars would certainly lead to dissatisfaction among some countries.
Ding Shufan mentioned that amid the US-China strategic competition, Xi Jinping has painted many grand visions, such as the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative. While many African countries were formerly colonized by Western nations, they may stand on China’s side ideologically. However, they are increasingly realizing the limits of what China can provide in terms of economic development.
He noted that although China may still offer some economic assistance to these countries, forcing these countries to navigate a dilemma. Economically, they have expectations from China, even though China may resort to dumping to address its internal economic issues.
Ding mentioned that Western donations to these so-called Global South countries come with demands for financial transparency. In contrast, China claims its economic aid does not carry any conditions, leading to corruption in assisted countries and an escalating resentment towards China.