The latest data released by the US Department of Agriculture last week shows that since the US-China summit, China has only purchased two batches of American soybeans, totaling 332,000 tons.
This is the latest report issued by the Department of Agriculture after the US government reopened. The data shows that the soybean procurement volume is far from China’s goal of importing 12 million tons of American soybeans by the end of the year as promised at the summit.
According to Forbes, Tanner Ehmke, Chief Economist for Grains and Oilseeds at CoBank, said that the market was shocked by the soybean trade data from the Department of Agriculture, as China’s procurement volume is far from the previously announced target.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, in an interview with Fox Business on Monday (November 17th), said that the President has prioritized the interests of all American farmers, including soybean farmers, in policy, and she believes they will eventually reach the 12 million ton target of Chinese soybean purchases.
Treasury Secretary Benson said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday (16th) that he believes China will honor their agreement after the Trump-Xi summit.
Benson also warned that if Beijing reneges, the US has “many means” to retaliate.
Regarding Beijing’s initial halt in purchasing American soybeans in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs, Benson said, “They made our great soybean farmers bargaining chips, but we believe this issue has been resolved.”
According to the agreement reached by Trump and Xi, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese products, while China has promised to purchase at least 12 million tons of American soybeans by the year-end and an additional 25 million tons next year.
Beijing has not confirmed any detailed soybean procurement agreement, but stated that both sides have reached a “consensus” on expanding agricultural trade.
President Trump said last week that his team had just held talks with Chinese officials, who assured the White House of buying more soybeans, although he did not disclose a specific quantity.
The President told accompanying reporters, “They are making soybean purchases, and the volume of purchases will be very large.”
Following the summit, China lowered tariffs on American soybeans by 10 percentage points, but they still remain high at around 24%.
Last Friday (14th), American soybean prices fell sharply by 23 cents to $11.24 per bushel.
Ehmke expressed concern that current soybean prices are higher than the pre-agreement level of $10.60 per bushel and believes that prices may continue to decline unless there is a significant amount of new purchases.
Before the trade agreement was reached, Trump had promised to provide aid programs to farmers to help them through the trade war with China. The plan was put on hold during the government shutdown, and it is currently unclear whether this administration will provide aid to farmers as in the first term.
American farmers have previously experienced similar situations after the first US-China trade war initiated by Trump. In 2020, the trade agreement signed between China and the US promised to purchase a large amount of American agricultural products. However, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade between the two countries when the agreement took effect. In 2022, US agricultural exports to China reached a historic high but then decreased.
In 2025, soybean prices have remained slightly higher than a year ago. Despite strong domestic demand and continuous growth in biodiesel production, farmers are facing pressure from rising costs of fertilizers, seeds, equipment, and labor. Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and Chairman of the American Soybean Association, expressed concern that without significant purchases from China or government aid, thousands of farmers may go bankrupt this year.
Ragland remains optimistic that China will fulfill its procurement commitments, but given the scarce sales volumes announced so far, it’s hard to have full confidence in this. “We do not want to assume that they will not make purchases,” he said. “The day when we truly deliver soybeans, receive payment, and complete the transaction will be a great day.”
Ragland noted that all suppliers he’s been in contact with have indicated they will raise prices next year, which will continue to stress farmers. “We still face huge losses, and the budget for 2026 is still pending,” he added.