Today’s Focus: US Side: Will Key Sanctions Rise to 500%? Beijing Hit by Severe Rainstorm with Major Casualties, Xi’s Rare Statement! Panicked? CCP Rolls Out Birth Subsidies, Effective?
Guests of this episode include Dr. Shen Mingshi, research fellow at the Taiwan Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies; Host of “Henghe Comment” Mr. Henghe; Current Affairs Commentator and Senior Political Analyst Mr. Qin Peng. Hosts: Jin Shi, Fuyao.
On Tuesday (July 29), the US and China concluded their third round of trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden. No major breakthrough was announced, but both sides agreed to continue discussions on a potential extension of the tariff truce period.
– Professor Shen, how do you view the outcome of this round of negotiations?
– Mr. Qin Peng, Bessent mentioned that China has the most severe economic imbalance in world history. The US has already reached trade agreements with allies such as the UK, Japan, and the EU, and the most important negotiation now is with the CCP. What is your outlook on the prospect of reaching an agreement between the US and China?
– Mr. Henghe, the US pointed out that China purchases about 90% of sanctioned Iranian oil and sells dual-use military and civilian technology worth about $15 billion to Russia. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned the CCP again about the consequences of continuing to purchase Russian oil. Will sanctions ranging from 0% to 500% be effective in curbing CCP’s ongoing support for Russia and Iran?
Midsummer brings heavy rains once again to northern China. The eastern, northern, and northeastern regions continue to face heavy rainfall, accompanied by lightning and strong winds.
In the past two days, the Beijing Meteorological Bureau has issued continuous orange rainstorm warnings, and the Beijing Hydrological Office has even issued red rainstorm warnings. Reports indicate that the rainfall this week is equivalent to Beijing’s annual precipitation.
Continuous rainfall has led to an increase in water levels at the Miyun Reservoir on the main stream of Chaobai River, reaching the highest flood volume since the reservoir was built in 1959.
Starting on the afternoon of the 27th, the Miyun Reservoir began discharging floods for several consecutive days. The disaster caused by the combination of torrential rain and flood discharge has officially resulted in 30 deaths, according to official reports. However, the true numbers of casualties are still subject to detailed verification due to the CCP’s cover-up of information.
Many netizens have been uploading videos.
However, Mr. Wang Weiluo, a hydraulic expert residing in Germany, pointed out that after the 2023 floods in Hebei, the CCP allocated 1 trillion special national debt for disaster prevention and flood control, but the effectiveness has been minimal, raising questions about the allocation of funds.
Beijing netizens commented that the annual flood disaster in Beijing has become a tradition in recent years. Regarding this, Mr. Wang mentioned in an interview that the trend of frequent droughts in the north and floods in the south in China is changing, with increased rainfall in the north likely due to projects like the CCP’s “South-to-North Water Diversion” and goals related to “protecting Beijing” and “protecting Xiong’an.”
– Mr. Qin Peng, this year, the disaster caused by Beijing’s heavy rains seems more severe than in previous years, and official reports have taken on an unusual tone. Prior to this, the Beijing municipal government did not release casualty figures, but only after CCP leader Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang mentioned “significant casualties” did the official death toll come to light. Do you believe the figure of 30 deaths is accurate? Why has Beijing, a sensitive area, started flood discharge?
– Mr. Henghe, the CCP has always been sensitive to casualty figures, with 35 deaths usually being the red line for reporting. However, with 30 deaths due to the flood disaster in Beijing this time, it is a significant figure for the city. Moreover, it was only after Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang mentioned “significant casualties” that the numbers were disclosed. What do you think this reflects? Are the top CCP leaders no longer concerned about publicizing “significant casualties” incidents?
– Professor Shen, being in Taiwan, how do you view the measures the CCP has taken in response to the heavy rain?
On July 28, the CCP officially announced plans to provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 RMB to children under 3 years old to boost the birth rate and address the current population crisis.
This measure will be retroactive to January 1, 2025. Specifically, parents of babies born after January 1 of this year will receive full subsidy for three years, amounting to 3,600 RMB annually, totaling 10,800 RMB for three years.
Parents of children born between January 1, 2022, and the effective date of this measure will also receive subsidies, but at a lower amount.
This is the first time the CCP government has used a subsidy policy to stimulate the birth rate.
Prior to this central policy, some regions had already introduced similar birth stimulus policies. For instance, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, offers up to 100,000 RMB in assistance for families with at least three children born per birth; Shenyang also provides a monthly subsidy of 500 RMB to families with a third child under 3 years old. In Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, a third child can receive a one-time subsidy of 25,000 RMB.
– Mr. Qin Peng, do you believe the CCP’s latest policy, including previous local policies, will have a substantial impact on China’s birth rate?
Many netizens on Douyin have commented that receiving 3,600 RMB per month might make them consider having a second child. Some have also expressed, “Education, retirement; education, retirement; education, retirement; important things must be said three times.”
– Why are Chinese people unwilling to have children?
Let’s look at some data. In 2023, China lost its position as the most populous country in the world to India.
In 2024, China’s population decreased for the third consecutive year. That year, the number of births in China was only 9.54 million, halved from 2016. In just eight years, the once bustling maternity wards now remain empty.
The CCP began implementing the “one-child policy” in 1979, which was relaxed only in 2013, allowing couples where one is an only child to have two children with a four-year gap. In 2015, China announced the end of the one-child policy, officially ending the 36-year-old policy of single child.
Despite the undeniable fact of negative population growth, the CCP still believes it retains a demographic dividend. People’s Daily, the CCP’s mouthpiece, stated that the demographic dividend should not only be measured by “quantity” but also by “quality.” The so-called “quality” refers to the improvement in the overall education and quality of Chinese citizens. Therefore, the dividend has not disappeared but has opened up growth opportunities, helping China advance innovation.
– Professor Shen, how do you view the CCP’s statement regarding the demographic dividend in China? Has the population dividend truly seen a resurgence?
– Mr. Henghe, considering China’s current population structure and demographic trends, what impacts will they have on the Chinese economy and society if continued?
– Professor Shen, Taiwan also faces the challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates. Does the Taiwanese government have some effective practices in stimulating childbirth?
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