Xi Jinping, the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, recently held a military political conference in Yan’an, emphasizing that the control of firearms must always be in the hands of “loyal and reliable individuals.” Since last year, a group of generals promoted by Xi Jinping have fallen from grace, leading experts to believe that Xi’s grip on the military is unstable. Especially as those who have been suppressed by the non-Xi faction are dissatisfied, there is a high possibility of a backlash.
According to reports from mainland official media on June 19th, on the 17th, Xi Jinping, along with other members of the Central Military Commission such as Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, held a military commission political work meeting in Yan’an. It was stated officially that this meeting was “decided to be held by Xi Jinping himself.”
During the meeting in Yan’an, Xi unusually mentioned, “Currently, the world situation, national situation, party situation, and military situation are undergoing complex and profound changes, and the political challenges faced by our army are intricate.” He emphasized that “the control of firearms must always be in the hands of those who are loyal and reliable to the party” and stated that “there must be no place for corrupt elements within the military.”
The official release mentioned the term “political” at least 34 times.
Xi also referred to the military political work meeting in Gutian in November 2014. At that time, Xi emphasized the concept of the “Party commanding the gun” and mentioned the case of Xu Caihou, saying that there should be a “thorough cleanup of influence.” Since the Gutian meeting in 2014, the Chinese Communist Party’s military has been heavily promoting loyalty education, continuously emphasizing the importance of adhering to political disciplines and rules.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has been re-elected as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission for three terms. During his first term, he cracked down on two former Vice Chairmen of the Military Commission from the Jiang faction, Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong, along with a large number of their cronies. Around the time of the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2017, two members of the Jiang faction, Fang Fenghui and Zhang Yang, were brought down, with Zhang Yang committing suicide.
Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong were both categorized by the authorities as “ambitious individuals, conspirators” who “attempted to seize party and state power.” Zhang Yang was described by the military media as a typical “two-faced person,” while Fang Fenghui was reportedly described by insiders in the military as having “great ambitions.” They were all implicated in rumors of a coup against Xi Jinping.
After a large-scale anti-corruption campaign and the military reform in 2016, Xi Jinping personally promoted a large number of senior military leaders. However, in the past year, the second “clean-up” within the military triggered by the corruption case of the Rocket Force has led to the downfall of possibly no less than twenty or thirty senior military leaders and military industry executives, including former Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu. This has severely impacted Xi’s authority and led to increased discord within the military.
Feng Chongyi, Associate Professor at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia, told The Epoch Times that from events such as the downfall of the Minister of National Defense, Xi is facing pressure within the party. He emphasized strengthening control over the military at the meeting, suggesting that the military has been consistently difficult to control.
“The control over the military has never been solidified, as there is no unity among them. Other factions have been subdued, but even the Rocket Force and the Minister of National Defense appointed by Xi cannot gain trust. Many people are not following his lead now, and this is the fundamental situation.”
Chen Shimin, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, expressed to The Epoch Times that it is strange for Xi Jinping to hold a military political meeting at this time, as the 20th Central Committee of the CPC is scheduled to be held next month.
“He mentioned that the world situation, national situation, party situation, and military situation are undergoing complex and profound changes, presenting intricate political challenges for the military. What exactly does he mean by this? Especially considering that the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection had just recently publicly advised against groundless speculation about the Party Central Committee. This indeed raises eyebrows.”
As per usual practice, the 20th Central Committee of the CPC was scheduled to be held in the fall of the previous year but has been delayed until July this year.
Chen Shimin commented that Xi Jinping mentioned the term “political” more than thirty times, stressing that the military should be led by individuals loyal to the party. This gives a feeling of a “fox in the henhouse.” During his first term, Xi eliminated some high-ranking officials who were not from his faction under the guise of anti-corruption. However, many of the senior officials who have fallen from grace recently were people close to Xi. Looking at this situation, those who have not been able to rise to higher positions because they are not part of Xi’s faction would naturally feel dissatisfied.
“The lower Xi Jinping suppresses the non-Xi faction, the more they will spring back like a compressed spring. Especially in 2027, when Xi Jinping clearly aims for a fourth term, seeking to establish his authority. But whether it is the military or the entire Party, are they truly wholeheartedly loyal to Xi Jinping? This is worth observing.”
Additionally, Chen Shimin pointed out that in recent years, the economic downturn in the Chinese Communist Party has brought about social unrest issues. Xi may resort to external military actions to distract from internal problems. However, such actions could lead to instability within the military, with the possibility of military officers defecting—an issue that Xi is concerned about.