According to a report released by Counterpoint Research on Wednesday (November 26th), Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to surpass Samsung in 2025, allowing Apple to claim the title of the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer for the first time in 14 years. This achievement is mainly attributed to the successful release of the new iPhone series and the enthusiasm of consumers to upgrade to the latest models.
In September of this year, Apple unveiled the new iPhone 17 series, which has been well-received by consumers, achieving significant success in both the United States and China. Researchers indicate that these new models have attracted more users to upgrade, leading to double-digit increases in annual sales for Apple in both markets.
Based on Counterpoint’s data, this growth is projected to propel Apple ahead of its long-time competitor Samsung Electronics this year. It is estimated that in 2025, iPhone shipments will increase by 10%, while Samsung’s growth rate will be 4.6%. The overall smartphone market is expected to grow by 3.3%, with Apple’s market share anticipated to reach 19.4%. This will mark the first time since 2011 that the company has secured the top position in the market.
Shipment volume refers to the number of devices shipped by manufacturers to retail channels and does not directly equate to sales volume. However, shipment volume can reflect market demand and the sales expectations of smartphone manufacturers.
Counterpoint informed CNBC that Apple’s iPhone shipments for the year are expected to be around 243 million units, while Samsung’s shipments are projected at 235 million units. Counterpoint also stated that the sales performance of the iPhone 17 series during the holiday season is “very strong”.
The organization recently released data showing that one out of every four smartphones sold in China in October was an iPhone, marking the first time since 2022 that Apple’s phones have reached this level of market penetration.
Counterpoint indicates that sales of all successor models, ranging from the 5,999 yuan (approximately $850) iPhone 17 to the 8,999 yuan iPhone 17 Pro Max, have seen a double-digit percentage increase compared to the previous-generation models of the iPhone 16. Apple’s performance has led to an 8% monthly growth in the long-depressed Chinese smartphone market. The market was previously struggling, with even government subsidies failing to stimulate demand.
In the United States, the iPhone 17 series (including the iPhone Air) saw a 12% increase in sales in the first four weeks after launch compared to the iPhone 16 series (excluding the iPhone 16e).
Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, stated in the report: “In addition to the widespread popularity of the iPhone 17 series, a key factor driving the growth in shipments is that the replacement cycle has reached a turning point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the pandemic are now entering the upgrading phase.”
He added that Apple is expected to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025.
Counterpoint also noted that, at the same time, Samsung may face challenges from Chinese manufacturers in the mid-range and low-end smartphone market, hindering the Korean giant’s efforts to reclaim its dominant position.
Counterpoint Research further predicts that Apple will maintain its leading position in the global smartphone market until 2029.
(This article contains references to CNBC reports)