On September 26th, the academic symposium “Geopolitical Changes in Trump’s Second Term and the Future of Taiwan-US-China Relations” was held in Taipei, gathering domestic and international experts and scholars to discuss the possible foreign policy directions of the Trump administration and to analyze the development of Taiwan-US relations, the new dynamics of US-China interactions, and their impact on Taiwan’s strategic position.
The symposium was hosted by the Vice President of Academic Affairs of Tamkang University, Hsu Hui-chuang, and featured a keynote speech by Deputy Minister of the Mainland Affairs Council, Shen You-zhong. Shen warned that the Chinese Communist Party is preparing to challenge the United States’ leading position, with Taiwan being a primary target, impacting the security of the first and second island chains and global economic development. The opening ceremony of the symposium attracted over 200 participants, including representatives from various countries stationed in Taiwan.
Chen Bai-li, Director of the Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of China and publisher of “Outlook and Exploration Magazine,” highlighted in his speech that with Trump’s return to the White House, his diplomacy and security policies are taking on new directions, profoundly affecting the international situation, especially amidst the deepening strategic competition between the US and China, escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and rapid changes in the Indo-Pacific security landscape. Under this backdrop, the symposium served as an important academic exploration in response to the current circumstances.
Research Fellow at the International Relations Research Center of National Chengchi University, Tseng Wei-feng, mentioned that Trumpism emphasizes prioritizing US interests, aiming to bring back manufacturing, promote US reindustrialization, and influence the global trade system through tariffs. Trump 2.0 has reshaped geopolitics in the East Asia region; under the current international situation where negotiation is favored by Trump, the government may use domestic political situations as leverage in negotiations with the Trump administration to enhance negotiation advantages.
The reports by Research Fellow Hong Yao-nan from Tamkang University’s Mainland China Relations Research Center and Assistant Professor Yang Hsi-hui from the China Institute of Financial Management focused on “How Taiwan’s Public Opinion Chooses Sides in the US-China Struggle: Empirical Survey of Public Opinion in 2025.” The study results showed that Taiwanese people do not simply rely on security or economic interests for choices, but are deeply influenced by preferences for norms like “morality vs. law” and “democracy vs. order.” Those leaning towards prioritizing morality and democratic values are more likely to support building alliance relationships with the United States.
Research Fellow Cheng Guang-jie from “Outlook and Exploration Magazine” pointed out that the future international monetary system will still be dominated by the US dollar; the monetary power of the US dollar is not only based on economic size but also on various institutional advantages. The theory of monetary power explains why the economic size of countries or regions like China or the Eurozone is increasingly close to the US, but their monetary influence still cannot compare to the US dollar.
Professor Li Wo-qiang from the Department of Finance and Banking at Tamkang University mentioned that the risks of Trump’s second term have significantly increased: whether in trade, investment, technology, finance, or discourse systems, Trump’s return will signify another escalation of the “decoupling” policy, even positioning “de-China-fication” as a strategic orientation. US-China relations are unlikely to return to normal competition but are moving towards structural confrontation, leading to a reshuffling of global supply chains once again.
Researcher Hsu Sheng-tai from the Chinese Strategic Prospective Association stated that corruption within the Chinese Communist Party is escalating, with officials becoming more engrossed in seeking power and wealth and showing no sign of restraint after the 18th Party Congress. The CCP has always adhered to one-party rule, particularly avoiding discussing the institutional issues that give rise to and protect corruption due to the lack of relevant oversight mechanisms. All-around strict party governance and the party’s self-revolution will always be on the road, with anti-corruption ultimately becoming a tool for Xi Jinping to crackdown on dissent and consolidate authoritarianism.
Researcher Zhao Cheng-yi from “Outlook and Exploration Magazine” explained that the current deadly threat from the CCP is continuously increasing global networks. This threat ranges from traditionally acquiring government confidential information to attempting to obtain commercial secrets from foreign businesses and conducting influence activities on foreign countries, including using the internet to influence other countries’ policies and intervene in elections, posing a threat to the security of various countries.
Zhao Cheng-yi mentioned that, besides expanding influence in digital governance, in recent years, state-backed Chinese hacker groups have become more active. As Taiwan is at a critical point in geopolitical conflicts, it inevitably becomes a hotspot for attacks from both global and Chinese hackers. From infiltrating military defense systems and basic infrastructure to disseminating false information, intervening in elections, hacking into banks and enterprises, disrupting normal industry and financial operations, signs of attacks are everywhere, becoming part of China’s strategy against Taiwan.
He urged the government to not only strengthen its countermeasures against “cyber warfare” by enhancing the nation’s “digital resilience” hard power but also to enhance the public’s information and message recognition and soft power in dealing with cognitive warfare to cope with the ever-changing threats and challenges in the ubiquitous cyber space.
Research Fellow Yang Ling-zhu and Executive Director Hsiao Tu-yuan from the Mainland China Relations Research Center at Tamkang University pointed out in their report that Taiwan’s interests in the semiconductor industry align with those of its Indo-Pacific allies and the United States. They emphasized how Taiwan needs to gain consensus from all sides to enhance its self-defense capabilities, raise public awareness of potential war crises, maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait to prevent accidental conflicts, preserve the production and research of the most advanced semiconductor chips in Taiwan, and develop substantive relations between Taiwan and the rising conservative forces in the United States.
Chairman Yang Tai-yuan from the Taiwan Security Institute stated that Xi Jinping, in the Taiwan Strait struggle, is using a comprehensive strategy that integrates political, economic, military, cognitive warfare, and diplomatic means. By 2030, the CCP will continue to conduct “joint readiness patrols and encirclement exercises around Taiwan,” military drills, gray-zone harassment, enforce “isolation” against Taiwan, and impose extreme pressures like economic sanctions. Therefore, it is essential for the military to continue strengthening defense and preparedness actions.
Contract Researcher Miao You-yuan from “Outlook and Exploration Magazine” pointed out that the CCP’s interference operations adapt to the institutional environment and social structure of target countries by flexibly using tactics such as fake news websites, AI-generated audio-visual content, and manipulating opinion polls to influence public opinions at low cost and high dissemination through non-military means to disrupt election outcomes and try to influence domestic and foreign policies of various countries.
Miao You-yuan analyzed the potential risks of CCP intervention in the 2026 Nine-in-One local elections in Taiwan, from three aspects: issues, technology, and target objects. Issues closely related to people’s livelihoods like energy prices and price pressures are likely to be the CCP’s main points of operation in manipulating public opinion. The government should strengthen issue management and communication mechanisms, improve information transparency, and avoid emotional narratives dominating the discussion.
Regarding technology, Miao You-yuan stressed the importance of monitoring and analyzing false information, deepfake content, and network account operations as short video platforms, AI-generated content, and cross-platform collaboration become more common. Relevant units must enhance cooperation, conduct regular intelligence gathering, and maintain close communication with platforms to promote rapid and effective content management.
Miao You-yuan suggested that for local collaborators who may become key targets for manipulation, such as mainland partner groups, agricultural and fisheries associations, and trade organizations, continuous risk assessment is necessary. Identifying their intent and sources of political messaging and funding to avoid becoming mouthpieces for the CCP and influencing the electoral landscape in Taiwan. These measures must be combined with existing legal systems and cross-border cooperation mechanisms while also strengthening risk and scenario drills to establish a forward-looking democratic defense system to uphold Taiwan’s role as a critical node on the Asia-Pacific democratic front line.