On October 12, 2025, with the signing of the agreement between Israel and Hamas, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza was met with cheers for the long-awaited peace. Trump’s full mediation led to a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, believed to have played a decisive role in ending the conflict and bringing a dawn of peace to the world.
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed agreements for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. On October 11, Israeli hospitals prepared to receive released hostages, and tens of thousands of Palestinians began returning to Gaza. The war, which began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a terrorist attack at the Nova music festival, has continued for two years, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties.
President Trump proposed a 20-point peace plan, receiving praise from the international community for his diplomatic efforts in facilitating the agreement. The Middle East peace process is considered to have taken the biggest step in a decade.
Recently, Trump stated that the U.S. government has halted multiple conflicts, including mediating between India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, and facilitating ceasefire and prisoner exchange arrangements between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as between Israel and Hamas in the “first stage.”
In an interview with Epoch Times, Shen Mingshi, a researcher at the National Security Institute of the Taiwan Defense Academy, stated that the success of the negotiations was crucial, especially due to the influence of the United States. Trump prioritized more than just national interests, having idealistic beliefs, aiming to stop the conflicts in the Middle East, particularly in Israel, given the tragedies, deaths, and the plight of Gaza refugees.
Shen Mingshi believes that Trump used a mix of soft and hard approaches, ensuring safety for Gaza while sternly warning Hamas. After the ceasefire, the key lies in the subsequent development of Gaza, promoting economic benefits for the people, which would lead them to desire peace even more.
On October 8, the U.S. Department of Commerce added several Chinese companies to its export control blacklist for assisting in purchasing U.S. electronic components used in drones operated by Iranian proxies such as Hamas and Houthi militants.
Shen Mingshi speculated that the Chinese Communist Party may directly aid Hamas, as media reports previously indicated that the CCP had dispatched engineering troops to help Hamas construct complex tunnel networks. As long as it can oppose the U.S. and Israel, the CCP will seek influence in the Middle East region.
Military and space channel host Mark, in an interview with Epoch Times, stated that Trump met with many Arab leaders during the United Nations General Assembly. Ending the war at this time was seen as fulfilling the expectations of many. If Israel were to fully occupy Gaza, it would violate the UN resolution for the division of Gaza between Israel and Palestine and provoke a backlash in the Arab world, disturbing the peace in the Middle East.
“The game in the Middle East is indeed quite complex,” Mark analyzed. Trump is concerned that if Israel goes too far, it could push countries like Saudi Arabia towards China. Visiting Saudi Arabia was Trump’s first foreign visit after taking office because Saudi Arabia holds great importance in Trump’s future plans. Saudi Arabia’s cooperation in helping the U.S. lower oil prices impacts Russia’s economy, and Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in balancing China. So, if the U.S. can satisfy Saudi Arabia or provide them with a sense of security concerning Middle East peace, Saudi Arabia will be more likely to comply with U.S. demands.
“Israel has basically achieved its main goal, nearly eliminating Hamas militants and continuously attacking their last stronghold, Gaza, making Hamas desperate. Trying to completely eradicate a terrorist organization like Hamas through war is not realistically achievable; it feels a bit like ethnic cleansing to some. However, by offering an alternative approach that focuses on economic development and improving the lives of Palestinians, creating a more normal societal state, the foundation of terrorist organizations can crumble, paving the way for lasting peace in the future,” he said.
In recent years, the world has been frequently engulfed in various local wars and regional conflicts. Trump’s intervention in the Israel-Hamas war is believed to have profound practical significance.
Shen Mingshi analyzed that unlike the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war is still deadlocked, with neither side giving in, especially with Putin of Russia hoping to gain more benefits. So, after achieving peace in the Middle East, the U.S. will focus all its efforts on Ukraine, with the EU, NATO, and the U.S. continuing to pressure Russia. Over the past two months, there have been changes on the front lines in eastern Ukraine, with the U.S. policy currently ignoring Russia-Ukraine conflicts but pressuring Russia indirectly by assisting Ukraine through NATO, ultimately facilitating negotiations between the two sides.
Mark also believes that the final say in wars, such as between Israel and Iran, will ultimately come from the U.S., such as with the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. playing a decisive role in the Israel-Hamas conflict will lead Arab countries to align more closely with the U.S., effectively diminishing China’s role in the Middle East. With peace in the Middle East, the U.S. will be able to focus more on the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.
“In the future, as Trump plays an increasingly significant role in quelling conflicts worldwide, the U.S.’s strength and influence will be recognized by countries worldwide. This will put more pressure on Putin for the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, forcing him to consider many factors. With the fires of war in the Middle East being extinguished, the pressure on Putin may increase, as well as on Xi Jinping,” he said.
Both experts believe that the likelihood of a Chinese Communist Party attack on Taiwan is decreasing.
Shen Mingshi stated that after the pandemic, China’s economy has been seriously declining, internal power struggles are putting pressure on Xi Jinping within the party. China’s frequent provocations or threats have worsened cross-strait relations, with conflicts on the brink of eruption. China’s actions have brought international attention to the Taiwan Strait, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading more countries to pay attention to Taiwan. Taiwan’s strategic value in semiconductors and geopolitics adds to its importance, making most countries hope to avoid conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The more international attention on Taiwan, the harder it becomes for China to use force against the island.
“Of course, China cannot stop harassing Taiwan immediately. However, the possibility of military action against Taiwan by 2027 has decreased due to factors such as internal Chinese issues, strong personal intervention by Trump, international attention, and Taiwan strengthening its defense,” he said.
Mark believes that seizing Taiwan is a significant goal for the Chinese Communist Party, which is why it continues its military expansion to keep abreast of the U.S. or at least appear roughly equal to deter U.S. support for Taiwan. China continuously creates tension with neighboring countries, applying pressure through friction and disputes. Yet, China’s military expansion is certain to encounter backlash from these countries.
Japan and South Korea are increasing military spending, while the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are enhancing military cooperation and exchanges. Meanwhile, China’s economy is facing continuous challenges, and with Trump’s “Golden Dome” project, akin to a new version of Star Wars, China has to keep up, creating a massive financial burden for China. With various internal and international challenges, the likelihood of a military attack on Taiwan will diminish.
Mark believes that China can continue to intimidate Taiwan with military aircraft but is unlikely to engage in actual conflict. As it still relies heavily on the West economically, China does not want to completely sever ties with Western and Asian countries at this time.
“If it reaches a point where it cannot maintain relations with the entire West and its political authority is in crisis, only then might China take high risks. The key question is whether Sino-U.S. and Sino-EU relations will ultimately deteriorate,” he said.