The relationship between the Communist Party leader Xi Jinping, who also serves as the chairman of the Military Commission, and the first vice chairman of the military, Zhang Youxia, has recently drawn attention. Zhang Youxia has been appearing frequently in public, seemingly entering a “high-profile moment”. Analysts believe that with the downfall of Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu, Zhang Youxia’s position has been compromised, suggesting that Xi Jinping likely holds some leverage over Zhang Youxia. Amid ongoing military incidents, Xi Jinping may have to rely on Zhang Youxia to oversee the larger picture, leading to a temporary but uneasy balance within the military.
The annual Xiangshan Forum concluded on September 14th in Beijing. Overseas senior commentator Yabuta Akio recently stated in an article that while the forum is ostensibly hosted by the China Institute for Military Science, in reality, it is backed by the Chinese military. This year, unlike previous years, Defense Minister Dong Jun and other senior officials did not directly mention the Taiwan issue in their speeches, indicating a softened stance of the Chinese military towards the United States. This shift is attributed to the intensified rhetoric regarding China by the two U.S. presidential candidates, prompting China to avoid further provocation.
Yabuta Akio pointed out that during this forum, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia had a significant presence. Traditionally, this forum has been a stage for the Defense Minister. Last year, due to the downfall of Li Shangfu, Zhang Youxia acted as a proxy. This year, although Defense Minister Dong Jun also attended, his non-dual role as a State Councilor diminished his prominence compared to Zhang Youxia, who appeared more assertive.
During the forum, Zhang Youxia met with defense ministers from Kazakhstan, Vietnam, among others. Yabuta Akio stated that Zhang Youxia’s high-profile appearances and media coverage were orchestrated performances. The relationship between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping is described as subtly complex.
It is noted in the article that Zhang Youxia’s father, Zhang Zongxun, and Xi Jinping’s father, Xi Zhongxun, were once comrades in the First Field Army in their youth. However, Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption efforts within the military have continually weakened Zhang Youxia’s influence. Li Shangfu, whom Zhang Youxia had supported, was embroiled in corruption, making it challenging for Zhang Youxia to distance himself from the scandal.
Yabuta Akio believes that Xi Jinping must possess substantial evidence to investigate Zhang Youxia. However, given the recent spate of military incidents and the removal of two Defense Ministers, Xi Jinping relies on Zhang Youxia to manage the situation. Although their relationship may not be entirely harmonious, they seem to have reached a delicate balance out of necessity.
From August 27 to 29, U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan visited China for the first time during his tenure. Surprisingly, Sullivan met with Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia. This marked the first meeting between a U.S. National Security Advisor and a Vice Chairman of the Chinese Military Commission in eight years.
Chinese affairs expert Wang He stated in Epoch Times that there were rumors of a deteriorating relationship between Zhang Youxia and Xi Jinping. However, based on the video footage of Sullivan’s meeting with Zhang Youxia, it appeared that Zhang Youxia was in good spirits. Sullivan’s meeting with Zhang Youxia indicates the latter’s stable position as a critical figure in the military hierarchy.
Xi Jinping, during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022, strategically placed members of the Xi family in key military positions to maintain a balance of power within the Military Commission.
Within the military, Xi Jinping has a close connection to the Fujian faction, which is seen as crucial in the personnel deployment concerning potential military actions against Taiwan. Two members of the Military Commission, He Weidong and Miao Hua, both originating from Fujian, served in the former 31st Group Army based in Fujian. Xi Jinping spent 17 years of his political career in Fujian, where the former 31st Group Army stationed is considered his affiliated force. He Weidong, previously not even a candidate member of the Central Committee, was promoted to Vice Chairman in a non-traditional advancement.
According to some Taiwan experts, the Fujian faction within the military, including He Weidong, represents the so-called “Taiwan faction”. On the other hand, Zhang Youxia, another member of the Military Commission, along with Liu Zhenli, both veterans of the Vietnam War, are referred to as the “Vietnam faction”.
Political commentator Chen Pokong has previously stated to Epoch Times that within the Central Military Commission of the Communist Party, two factions existed: Xi Jinping, He Weidong, and Miao Hua belonged to one faction, while Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli, Zhang Shengmin, and the missing Li Shangfu formed another. With the disappearance of Li Shangfu, Zhang Youxia essentially lost a significant ally, given their hierarchical relationship. Both Zhang Youxia and Li Shangfu had served in the General Armament Department previously, with Li Shangfu succeeding Zhang Youxia as the Minister, making his sudden absence a major blow to Zhang Youxia.
The Chinese military is currently undergoing a purge, and the conflict between Zhang Youxia and Vice Chairman of the Military Commission He Weidong is being closely observed.
In recent times, Zhang Youxia has not only made frequent public appearances but has also been more visible domestically than He Weidong.
During the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, both Zhang Youxia and He Weidong separately met with foreign participants. Additionally, the innovative seminar on operational command education within the entire military academy took place from the 11th to the 13th at the National Defense University, where Zhang Youxia delivered a speech.
On September 10th, the award ceremony for the Shenzhou-16 and Shenzhou-17 space astronauts was held in Beijing, with Zhang Youxia representing Xi Jinping and the Central Military Commission. Meanwhile, the special seminar on studying the spirit of the Central Military Commission’s political work for senior military cadre concluded on September 7th, with He Weidong delivering the opening speech and Zhang Youxia delivering the closing speech.
Yabuta Akio expressed that Zhang Youxia’s frequent appearances on the forefront, coupled with his increasing international exposure, will likely lead to significant changes in the power structure and balance within the Chinese military, warranting thorough observation.