As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to intensify, Russian President Putin’s visit to North Korea on Tuesday (June 18) and Wednesday (June 19) has sparked widespread debates. Not only is the United States closely monitoring this visit, but any interactions between Putin and Kim Jong Un and the agreements they reach are also causing concerns within the Chinese Communist Party.
According to analysis from the French newspaper “Le Monde,” Beijing has complex feelings about the strengthening relationship between Russia and North Korea due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the support between Russia and North Korea could benefit China in some ways, it also reduces North Korea’s dependency on China, thereby diminishing China’s control over North Korea and introducing significant uncertainties for Beijing.
Putin and Kim Jong Un have come together for mutual benefits. Putin needs North Korea’s supply of ammunition to assist in the Ukraine conflict, while Kim Jong Un hopes to alleviate his isolation by providing ammunition, receive food aid to stabilize North Korea’s economy, and potentially gain access to specialized technologies in the areas of ballistic missile and satellite technology from Russia.
For Kim Jong Un, another benefit is diversifying his alliances. North Korea has long been concerned about being overly reliant on China.
This presents a double-edged sword for the Chinese government, as it reduces pressure on Beijing to provide international cover for the turmoil in North Korea while also lightening the burden of supplying sufficient resources and food to ensure North Korea’s survival. China views North Korea as a valuable strategic buffer zone between China and South Korea, and maintaining this buffer zone aligns with Beijing’s interests given the proximity of large U.S. bases in South Korea to Chinese territory, only 400 kilometers away.
In recent years, North Korea’s continuous missile tests have drawn international condemnation, leading those involved in formulating China’s strategic policies to believe that the only country with which China has maintained a mutual defense agreement has become a burden for Chinese authorities. With growing concerns about increased cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, China places greater importance on North Korea as a buffer zone. China often refers to the U.S., Japan, and South Korea as the “anti-China (anti-communist) NATO.”
Now, China has requested that North Korea ensure its defense capabilities and ensure its own survival. Russia’s assistance to North Korea implies that Moscow may use its special status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to relax sanctions on North Korea and help it circumvent these sanctions. This is something China hopes for, as Russia providing international cover for North Korea would allow Beijing to escape international condemnation, which is crucial for China’s efforts to improve its international image, in contrast to Russia which has largely given up on such efforts.
A clear example of this was seen in March of this year when a resolution to extend the mandate of the “UN Panel of Experts on North Korea Sanctions” was put to a vote at the UN Security Council. Russia’s veto prevented the resolution from passing, with China abstaining on the matter, while the other 13 Security Council members voted in favor.
This action drew condemnation from the United States towards Russia. During the voting, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated, “Russia’s veto was an attempt to suppress independent, objective investigations into ongoing violations of Security Council resolutions by North Korea and Russia itself.”
The “UN Panel of Experts on North Korea Sanctions” is a group of experts established under the UN Security Council, responsible for monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea.
While these developments may benefit China in some ways, the Russia-North Korea alliance also poses risks for China. With Russia in the picture, China’s influence and control over North Korea have weakened.
In September of last year, Putin and Kim Jong Un met in Russia. In a report last month, the Wall Street Journal quoted sources revealing that Russia and North Korea did not inform China of the content discussed during Putin and Kim Jong Un’s rare meeting, prompting Chinese diplomats to inquire with Western counterparts about any agreements reached between the two leaders.
Russia still has the potential to assist North Korea in expanding its missile programs in ways unknown to the outside world.
“How North Korea will leverage this increased power without being under China’s (CCP) control creates significant uncertainties for China (CCP),” Tong Zhao, a political expert at the Carnegie China Center, was cited by “Le Monde” as saying. “Therefore, for China, (Russia-North Korea interactions) are both good news and bad news.”
It has been observed that in order to ensure a significant foothold in North Korea, the Chinese government dispatched Zhao Leji, Chairman of the National People’s Congress, to visit North Korea in April and reassure Kim Jong Un of Beijing’s support.
Russia and North Korea are evidently aware that Putin’s visit will draw attention from the United States. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stated on Monday (June 17) that while the United States is not concerned about Putin’s trip, they are monitoring whether it might worsen the security situations in Ukraine and Northeast Asia.
“What we are concerned about is the deepening relationship between these two countries, not only because it will impact the Ukrainian people, knowing that North Korean ballistic missiles are still being used to attack Ukrainian targets, but also because some reciprocity between Russia and North Korea could affect the security of the Korean Peninsula,” Kirby added. “We will definitely be very closely monitoring this situation.”