The Mid-Autumn Festival, traditionally a peak season for mooncake sales, has faced a “cold winter” in 2025. According to relevant monitoring data, the sales of mooncakes on the mainland dropped by over 45% compared to the same period last year on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival. From high-end gift boxes to street-side stalls, mooncakes are generally stagnant, with various reasons behind the decline.
The market research platform “China Report Hall” disclosed data in mid-September, indicating that the total sales of mooncakes nationwide from January to August 2025 reached 42.6 billion yuan, but sales on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival dropped by 45.17% compared to the previous year.
Videos posted by netizens online show that on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, shops selling mooncakes are filled with a variety of mooncakes, but there are few customers inside, reflecting the bleak business situation.
An e-commerce platform survey reveals that over half of consumers now view mooncakes as “daily snacks” rather than just gifts for the Mid-Autumn Festival. This shift has diluted the traditional peak sales period before the festival.
Although consumer habits are changing, netizens believe that there are deeper reasons behind the stagnation in mooncake sales.
The economic downturn in mainland China is an undeniable fact. In this economic environment, business gift-giving has almost come to a standstill. With the purchasing power of ordinary people being insufficient and an increased demand for value for money, both factors combined have led to a decline in sales.
The latest data from the China Bakery Products and Confectionery Industry Association shows that high-end gift boxes priced above 500 yuan, which used to be popular, have dropped from 7.2% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2025, almost exiting the market. These luxury gift boxes used to attract gift-giving demands with their luxurious packaging and high-end positioning but are now seen as wasteful and burdensome. Even without market regulations, many business interactions have been canceled on their own, causing high-end gift boxes to naturally lose their market.
Currently, the market is dominated by products in the 120-180 yuan mid-range price range, but these are not affordable food items for many people. Some netizens have pointed out that in each gift box, the mooncakes weigh only 1 to 2 kilograms, costing no more than 60 yuan to produce, with packaging costs much higher than the actual food product, making it an unpopular choice for individual consumption.
Netizen “君爸談” stated in a video on September 26 that even the cheapest mooncakes in supermarkets cost over a hundred yuan, while slightly pricier ones cost two to three hundred yuan, resulting in spending a significant portion of one’s monthly salary on just a few boxes. He couldn’t help but lament, “Is it the Mid-Autumn Festival or a robbery?”
According to data from iResearch, apart from mooncakes being the default option for gift-giving during the Mid-Autumn Festival, traditional food and beverage categories such as liquor, tea, and milk continue to be the mainstream gifts. From a consumer perspective, this transition is the result of them “voting with their feet” after considering various factors. They are no longer blindly following expensive gift boxes but opting for products with better value for money.
An analysis by the “图数室” WeChat official account mentioned that the act of gifting during the Mid-Autumn Festival has evolved from a simple holiday ritual to a comprehensive embodiment of interpersonal relationships, health concerns, and lifestyle aesthetics. The diversification of holiday gifts has diminished the traditional status of mooncakes and is driving a transformation in the mooncake market.
Furthermore, frequent food safety issues in mainland China have made people hesitant. Some netizens have revealed in videos that various additives are included in mooncakes to extend shelf life and enhance taste. Prolonged consumption of additives can be harmful to health.
The ingredient list of mooncakes shows the presence of sodium dehydroacetate. Professor Fan Zhihong from the College of Food Science and Nutritional Engineering at China Agricultural University stated that research has found that long-term consumption of sodium dehydroacetate can lead to a decrease in food intake, weight loss, decreased clotting ability, changes in liver and kidney tissues, and even thyroid hormone disorders.
Experts have noted that sodium dehydroacetate and its sodium salt are strong preservatives that can cause damage to human organs and systems when used long-term. Netizens have pointed out that it is not even the most toxic, as it ranks only third in the list of ingredients, with sodium nitrite and sodium bisulfite ranked higher.
Netizen Jennifer Lin posted on X, stating that Chinese mooncakes pose food safety issues involving arsenic, carcinogens, and shady practices, advising to avoid buying mooncakes during the Mid-Autumn Festival.
Netizen “董哥在广东” shared a video last September stating that ants died in large numbers after consuming mooncakes that were accidentally dropped on the ground. Comparing the ingredient list of dog food to mooncakes, which include wheat flour, oats, carrot powder, milk powder, soybean oil, edible salt, corn flour, vitamins, mineral elements, strawberries, and more, one netizen humorously remarked that dogs eat cleaner food than humans, as most human food contains additives.
The issue of food safety in China is widely known, and people’s desire to purchase mooncakes has greatly weakened, leading to a reluctant decision to refrain from buying mooncakes.
Netizen “拎个铲子康生活” commented, “This year mooncakes are collapsing – no matter what concept you sell, no one is buying.”
Amid concerns over food safety, tightening purse strings, and emotional expectations for traditional festivals, people have found that homemade mooncakes can meet all these needs.
Some food bloggers have astutely captured this trend, introducing a series of “lazy mooncake” tutorials on social media platforms. For example, a creative product can be made by wrapping red bean paste in bread slices, brushing with egg wash, and baking in an air fryer for a few minutes to create a mooncake-like appearance with a baked flavor.
This trend has become a hot topic on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival. Young people are using mooncake molds to shape everyday foods like burgers, egg tarts, and red bean buns into mooncake forms, creating a spectacle where “anything can be a mooncake.” While mostly for entertainment purposes, this trend reflects consumers’ pursuit of personalization and engagement.
Some businesses have indeed recognized the consumption trends of the younger generation and have targeted regional characteristics and social attributes of young people, launching a series of “dark cuisine” mooncakes that have sparked discussions online.
According to “图数室,” Shandong Dou Jue Zi mooncakes, which sell 300,000 pieces daily, have become a hot search topic. Netizens joked, “Escaping the summer of dou jue zi but not the Mid-Autumn.” Other mooncake fillings like Anhui stinky mandarin fish, Changsha stinky tofu, and Xi’an oil-splashed chili have transformed from dishes to mooncakes in an attempt to capture a share of the market.
The “2025 China Mooncake Industry White Paper” released on September 15 shows that innovative categories accounted for 35.7% of the market, becoming the main force of market growth. These products attract young consumers with high aesthetics, taste, and interactivity.