Tomorrow, on November 5th, the United States will finally witness one of the most intense competitions in the history of presidential elections. The latest polls show that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are still locked in a fierce battle. Regardless of who becomes the next President of the United States, they will lead the country in shaping the global political and economic landscape.
Analysts suggest that if Trump is elected, it will usher in a new world order from his perspective. If Harris wins, she is expected to continue Biden’s policy of containing the Chinese Communist Party. Both parties’ support for Taiwan is unlikely to change.
As the countdown to the election’s final day approaches, Trump and Harris continue to compete fiercely in the seven swing states. According to the latest aggregated polls from the website “Real Clear Politics,” Trump currently leads in five swing states.
Mainstream media reports in the United States have highlighted this globally anticipated presidential election, emphasizing how the election outcome will impact U.S.-China, U.S.-Taiwan relations, and even strategic changes in the Indo-Pacific region.
Former U.S. Department of Defense official Hu Zhendong told Epoch Times that regardless of the election result, the U.S.’s support for Taiwan will remain unchanged. He emphasized that the U.S. is a tripartite system, consisting of the President, Congress, and the Supreme Court.
“In particular, Congress represents the people, and currently, the American people have much more support for Taiwan than for the CCP. Therefore, whether it’s the Democratic Party or Republican Party, they both strongly support Taiwan.”
The difference lies in how Taiwan is supported. Hu Zhendong explained that if Biden used his Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) last year to provide Taiwan with needed resources, Trump may not do the same, indicating a potential shift towards selling weapons to Taiwan instead. Harris might continue Biden’s approach, potentially using PDA to assist Taiwan in acquiring arms.
Taiwan’s senior political and economic commentator Wu Jialong stressed that since the beginning of the trade war, the U.S.’s tough stance against the CCP has coincided with its approach toward Taiwan. Both parties view the rise of China as a significant threat to the U.S., East Asia, and the international order.
Regarding Harris’s approach to U.S. national security and relations with China, General Yu noted that she is likely to follow Biden’s containment strategy against China.
General Yu, former dean of the Political Warfare Academy at National Defense University, mentioned that Biden publicly affirmed five times that the U.S. would intervene in Taiwan’s defense if necessary, setting a high bar for Harris to follow.
He added that Harris would need to assure U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s security to align with domestic anti-China sentiments or demonstrate to the international community the U.S.’s continued leadership role.
While Harris’s policy on the Taiwan Strait during the election season remains ambiguous, General Yu believes that if elected, Harris is likely to continue Biden’s combination of conflict, cooperation, and confrontation without significant changes.
Wu Jialong also agrees that Harris’s presidency would likely mirror Biden’s political character. However, he expressed concerns that her inclination toward compromise might inadvertently encourage China to challenge the current international order and test America’s resolve.
Human rights activist and senior media personality Yang Xianhong, in an interview with Epoch Times, remarked that if Trump is elected, the world would witness a New World Order aligned with his viewpoints.
Yang noted recent events in the Middle East and tensions between Russia and Ukraine as irreconcilable issues needing resolution. He criticized the United Nations as dishonest and lacking moral integrity.
“Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Argentine President Milei have criticized the United Nations for violating its own charter. Trump previously indicated the U.S.’s intention to exit the UN. If re-elected, he will likely follow through, creating a new world order aligning democratic countries as a united front.”
General Yu emphasized that regardless of the election outcome, relations between the U.S. and China, U.S. and Taiwan, cross-strait relations, and the Indo-Pacific situation are interlinked.
In May, Trump issued a warning to Beijing at a rally, stating that if China invaded Taiwan during his tenure, he would order strikes on Beijing.
As a result, General Yu predicted that with Trump in office, evil axis countries like Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China would have reduced opportunities for military provocation. Trump’s unilateral style of decision-making is in stark contrast to Biden’s multilateral approach.
Wu Jialong also anticipates that Taiwan may join U.S.-led military exercises in the western Pacific to enhance its defense capabilities and deter any external military aggression.
Liu Fuguo, a researcher at the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University, recently mentioned that if Trump is re-elected, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) might face increased pressure due to geopolitical factors. Trump’s allegations of Taiwan “stealing” the U.S. semiconductor industry, though campaign rhetoric, have impacted capital markets.
Director of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Lian Xianming also forecasted a potential global supply chain restructuring, with a trend towards establishing manufacturing facilities in the United States.
During TSMC’s annual sports event on October 26th, founder Morris Chang acknowledged the record-breaking year of 2024 but highlighted imminent challenges due to globalization, where TSMC has become a critical battleground.
General Yu underscored that if Trump remains in office, he would likely continue exerting pressure. It’s foreseeable that TSMC would increase investments in the U.S. to enhance its advanced manufacturing capabilities.
General Yu also mentioned the recent disinformation campaign by some Taiwanese media outlets, claiming that a Trump victory would negatively impact TSMC, causing its stock to plummet for several days.
Regarding Trump’s push for defense expenditure sharing, Hu Zhendong emphasized that the U.S.’s national security policy since World War II has been about “forward presence,” which entails stationing troops near enemy territories to ensure national defense alongside allies. Taiwan currently does not host U.S. troops, simplifying the situation compared to issues in South Korea and Japan.