From October last year to September this year, the United States has imposed sanctions three times on Chinese enterprises assisting Pakistan’s missile program. This move may impact the military cooperation between Pakistan and China, further entangling Pakistan in the US-China great power competition, forcing Pakistan to make choices.
On September 12, sanctions were announced against four Chinese entities, one Pakistani entity, and one Chinese national for allegedly providing materials to Pakistan’s ballistic missile program.
In April this year, based on Executive Order 13382 targeting proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, the US also imposed sanctions on three Chinese companies and a Belarusian company for their involvement in Pakistan’s missile program, including its long-range missile plans.
In October last year, the US also sanctioned three Chinese companies supplying materials for Pakistan’s missile program.
Associate Professor at Tamkang University’s Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, Ma Junwei, told Epoch Times that the main targets of the US sanctions are still Chinese enterprises, which should be viewed from the perspective of US-China competition.
Pakistan already possesses medium-range missiles with a range of about 2750 kilometers, enough to deter India. However, more weapons are always desired. The US is clear in its stance, not wanting Pakistan to have long-range missiles in addition to nuclear warheads, hence the intervention which is linked to nuclear proliferation and nuclear strikes.
Director of Strategic Studies and Resources at the Taiwan Institute for National Defense and Security Studies, Su Ziyun, told Epoch Times that US sanctions are generally effective but fall within the realm of political competition between the US and China.
Although military and economic ties between China and Pakistan have deepened, the West holds greater soft power. American companies have significant influence in Pakistan, making the US the largest export market for Pakistani goods.
In a report by the US Institute of Peace (USIP) in 2023 on China-Pakistan military relations, it raised concerns among Western countries.
The report stated that while China and Pakistan avoid formal alliances, their military partnership has significantly deepened in the past decade, approaching a quasi-military alliance similar to China’s military ties with Russia.
Over the past decade, in terms of value, China has become Pakistan’s largest and most important arms supplier, providing nearly 75% of Pakistan’s arms imports since 2015.
China has also assisted Pakistan in achieving nuclear weapons capabilities, including bomb design, development and transfer of high-explosive components, and the development and transfer of solid propellant missiles as nuclear delivery platforms.
Su Ziyun noted that as Pakistan and India are not aligned, China seeks to balance India by aligning with Pakistan due to border disputes with India. The US does not sell advanced weapons to Pakistan to avoid upsetting the Indo-Pak balance, leading Pakistan to rely on Beijing for weaponry, creating a delicate balance among India, Pakistan, China, and the US.
The USIP report also mentioned that Pakistan transferred unexploded Tomahawk missiles that reached Afghanistan, enabling China to manufacture air-launched KD-20 and land-launched DH-10 cruise missiles through reverse engineering. Additionally, Pakistan reportedly provided crashed Black Hawk helicopter samples, giving China access to stealth technology.
The Eurasian Times reported in July this year that any insights gained by Pakistan from joint military exercises with European fighter jets would be quickly shared with China, inadvertently turning Pakistan into an “ear” for China to understand Western advanced fighter jet technology.
However, Pakistan’s close military cooperation with China has hindered its ability to access Western technology. Two years ago, Germany refused to provide engines for Chinese-supplied 039 submarines to Pakistan.
Su Ziyun mentioned that Pakistan also has F-16 fighter jets, and China aims to obtain technical data on American-made weapons through Pakistan. Due to concerns about potential leakage of weapon technology, the US is cautious about arms exports to Pakistan, pushing Pakistan towards China for missiles and fighter jets, creating a cyclical dependency.
Ma Junwei stated that the China-Pakistan relationship is unique, often termed as “iron brothers” by China. Pakistan is one of the only two countries in the world that has a formal military alliance with Beijing, the other being North Korea.
The US cannot provide Pakistan with weapons, as reports last year about the US providing F-6 jets turned out to be false news. This is because the US must also consider its relations with India.
While Pakistan’s military and economic ties deepen with China, the West still holds greater soft power. American companies wield significant influence in Pakistan, making the US the largest export market for Pakistani goods.
Senior Researcher at King’s College London’s War Studies Department, Ayesha Siddiqa, wrote last year that Pakistan’s armed forces have always been part of the Western security system. While its relations with China are deepening, the civilian and military leadership, as well as their families, still prefer the US or Europe over China. However, this dynamic may exacerbate internal divisions at some point.
Pakistan’s military leadership has shown signs of trying to restore ties with Washington to maintain the status quo.
Ma Junwei mentioned that Pakistan’s military has a good relationship with the US as it remains a major non-NATO ally. There is a high level of mutual trust. However, China is more willing to provide missile technology, which the US opposes since precise missiles require satellite navigation. Without receiving GPS systems from the US, Pakistan ends up relying on China’s BeiDou system, creating a subtle balance.
Su Ziyun noted that being a former British colony, Pakistan’s military is more skeptical of China’s system, preferring the US’s approach. However, geopolitically, Pakistan leans towards China due to its relations with India.
After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the US military operation in Afghanistan continued for 20 years. Pakistan and the US maintained a close but controversial partnership. However, the US is now guiding its foreign policy through the lens of great power competition rather than counterterrorism. Thus, Pakistan’s close relationship with China has become a factor for Washington to consider.
Although tensions exist between the US and Pakistan, China cannot completely replace the US in the trilateral interactions among the US, China, and Pakistan.
In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, direct US investments in Pakistan increased by 50%, reaching the highest level in over a decade. US companies exert significant influence in Pakistan, with over 80 wholly-owned or majority-owned US subsidiaries registered with the American Business Council in Pakistan.
Promising and practical areas of cooperation between the US and Pakistan institutions and sectors include technology, education, climate, and health.
Given Pakistan’s poor economic situation and the ability of Western countries to regulate resource-dependent nations through international financial institutions like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), countries like Pakistan are unlikely to completely align with China.
Su Ziyun stated that currently, China does not wield absolute influence over Pakistan. Politically, Pakistan leans towards China, economically towards the US, and ideologically towards the US in the military realm but relies on China for arms, creating a complex interplay among the three forces.
The US will not abandon Pakistan as it continues to maintain economic influence over Pakistan to counterbalance China. Therefore, in the medium term at least, Pakistan may adopt a similar neutral stance to Southeast Asian countries.
In the long term, Ma Junwei believes that China will not easily replace the US’s position as the US has needs in Pakistan rather than letting Pakistan dictate policy.
Because of Pakistan’s strategic location near Iran and the oil-producing Arabian Gulf, it is a crucial country for the US in the Middle East and counterterrorism efforts, making the US unlikely to relinquish its grip on Pakistan. Pakistan also finds considerable benefits in maintaining its relationship with the US, which is its largest market.
The US does not view Pakistan as a part of an evil axis or a hostile nation. Pakistan also sees benefits in cooperating with the US and is unlikely to fully abandon its relationship with the US as the US provides significant advantages, and as its largest market, the US holds sway over Pakistan.