On July 20th, US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall stated that a careful review will be conducted to determine the progression of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which includes future fighter platforms and a series of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Experts pointed out that the NGAD project is clearly aimed at countering the threat from China, with the US Air Force’s capabilities far exceeding those of China both in terms of quantity and quality. By the time China develops its next-generation fighter, the US and Europe will have advanced further.
NGAD, also known as the US military’s sixth-generation fighter program, aims to eventually replace the current most advanced F-22 fighter jets. The sixth-generation aircraft, different from traditional fighters, referred to as Penetrating Counter Air (PCA) aircraft, is designed to combat all anti-air threats, including integrated air defense systems and onboard radar, and is less focused on maneuverability and close combat performance.
However, the PCA is very expensive, with a unit procurement cost close to $300 million, three times that of the F-35, excluding research and development costs. By the end of 2021, a prototype aircraft successfully completed a test flight and has been included in the NGAD program.
Due to China’s rapid military expansion and the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, facing the imminent threat of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027, the urgency of the sixth-generation fighter program has increased, prompting the US Air Force and Navy to adopt different approaches.
The US Navy has taken a more conservative strategic route to achieve modernization goals and will not purchase next-generation aircraft until technology matures and prices decrease. Earlier, the Navy pulled out $1 billion from the 2025 budget dedicated to the new-generation attack fighter F/A-XX. The Navy believes that if it needs to deter or confront China in this “worrisome decade,” it will use existing fleet assets rather than those developed in the coming decades.
On the other hand, the US Air Force leans towards pursuing new technologies while deploying enough existing capabilities and continuing the development of next-generation aircraft to maintain air superiority. However, the Air Force is facing challenges due to the high costs of upgrading land-based nuclear deterrence forces and developing the B-21 bomber, making it difficult for the sixth-generation fighter program’s budget.
Kendall emphasized that the concept of NGAD was proposed before many events, including the increasing threat from China, the joint fighter program proposal, and budget constraints occurred. Therefore, before continuing to advance, they will carefully review NGAD, but concepts such as manned platforms, cooperative fighters, weapon systems, and communication systems are still being pursued.
The idea of utilizing drones or Cooperative Combat Aircraft (CCA) will also be part of the proposed measures.
Analysts suggest that the depth of this review indicates the Air Force’s intention to reassess whether NGAD is still responsive to the threats posed by China, as its program’s progress has been delayed to the 2030s.
Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Resources at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, stated that the next-generation fighter, commonly known as the sixth-generation fighter, is further optimized based on the foundation of fifth-generation stealth aircraft.
“The battlefield is always a balance between offense and defense. While aircraft will advance, ground-based air defense capabilities will also progress, seeking a balance between air superiority and air defense, hence the air superiority program. In the future, manned aircraft may evolve into command aircraft, coordinating with five to six or more unmanned aerial vehicles for long-range operations to gain greater air superiority while reducing personnel risk,” Su added.
Su Ziyun noted that the reason the US Air Force is carefully reviewing the program is primarily due to the threat posed by China and the cost involved. Currently, the F-22 fighter is the world’s most powerful stealth aircraft, but its use of military-grade technology makes it very costly, with each unit costing nearly $300 million. While subsequent F-35s utilize commercial technology to a greater extent, significantly reducing costs, each unit still costs nearly $100 million.
“The cautious evaluation by the US is regarding the threats posed by China and the cost, as well as advancements in technology to find the best solution,” Su concluded.
Xu Zhixiang, assistant researcher at the Institute of Chinese Military and Operational Concepts at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security Studies, mentioned that the US primarily relies on fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35, alongside numerous fourth and fourth-and-a-half-generation fighters like the F-15 and F-16, some of which have been in service for two to three decades. Hence, the US needs to contemplate the development of the next generation of air combat systems.
“From the planning, research and development to actual mass production and service, it takes about one to two decades, even two to three decades. Therefore, it is necessary to start considering the next generation air combat system plan,” Xu explained.
European countries also have similar concepts, such as the Tempest fighter aircraft developed through collaboration between the UK and Italy, and the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) developed through cooperation between Germany, France, and Spain.
However, Xu Zhixiang believes that until the US officially finalizes its plans, it cannot be certain which core elements the next-generation fighters will entail.
He further explained that the development path from the fourth generation to the fifth generation of fighters is similar. At the end of the Cold War, European countries believed they were developing fifth-generation fighters such as the Typhoon and Rafale. However, with the introduction of the F-22 by the US, it became apparent that the fifth generation actually referred to stealth fighters, not the highly maneuverable ones developed in Europe. Thus, European fighter capabilities instantly dropped a notch.
Looking ahead, Xu Zhixiang suggests that the concept of sixth-generation fighters might consist of manned aircraft integrated with unmanned aerial vehicles, combined with various systems, including cloud-based systems, for networked operations incorporating many new technologies. For instance, the UK is considering applying augmented reality concepts in the cockpit, while the US plans to equip next-generation fighters with lasers or similar directed energy weapons.
Regarding why the US Air Force is “carefully reviewing” the sixth-generation fighter program, Xu Zhixiang believes that most of the sixth-generation fighter concepts are still in the research or conceptual stages and are still far from being fully developed.
“However, due to the increasingly intense competition between the US and China, the US military must accelerate the development, identifying feasible options that can achieve combat capability within a reasonable timeframe while maintaining a technological edge,” Xu explained.
Whether the US continues to advance or modifies the sixth-generation fighter program, it’s primarily to address the escalating threat posed by China.
“Our adversaries are no longer Syria or the Soviet Union,” Kendall said. “Our main focus is China, aligning our military development pace with theirs, ensuring we are on the right track.”
Vago Muradian, editor of Defense & Aerospace Report, stated to Reuters, “NGAD is a comprehensive project to enhance the capabilities the Air Force desires, aiming to better deter China and secure victory in times of necessary combat.”
Muradian added, “China is changing its methods of combat. Therefore, for the budget-constrained Air Force, the question lies in whether investing hundreds of billions of dollars is the right decision, or if there are better ways to achieve some of the same goals.”
Former US Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James indicated on Defense News that China is advancing its equivalent of the next-generation air superiority program. “Furthermore, China continues to engage in aggressive actions in the South China Sea and conduct military exercises simulating blockades and potential invasions of Taiwan,” she stated.
Su Ziyun emphasized that the US military plans are clearly aimed at countering China, as Russia’s military capabilities have significantly dwindled and China, as the world’s second-largest economy, invests heavily in various military equipment.
“In this context, as the US Air Force prepares for air battles in the next 15 to 20 years, China is undoubtedly identified as its prime adversary,” Su noted.
Nevertheless, experts point out that Chinese weapon systems typically emulate those of the US military. Whenever the US develops new weapons, China tends to follow suit, hence always lagging behind. The future gap is expected to widen even further.
Since the early 21st century, many of China’s aviation development plans have been modeled after the US, which they refer to as foreign military thought. The trajectory of China’s aviation development was driven by foreseeing trends towards stealth and electronic warfare capabilities, leading to the development of stealth aircraft like the J-20, while also referencing the US’s Suter program.
The Suter program was developed by the US Air Force in the late 20th century, converting transport or commercial aircraft into electronic warfare planes to enhance anti-submarine and electronic warfare capabilities. China subsequently initiated the High-tech Project, converting aircraft like the Y-8 and Y-9 transport planes into aircraft with communication countermeasures, long-range jamming, and anti-submarine capabilities.
From this perspective, when looking ahead, China’s military trends towards the future of aerial combat will likely follow the unmanned trend set by the US. Nonetheless, unmanned aircraft still require electronic technology resources, and if China cannot break through in advanced chip technology, it will lag further behind the US.
Xu Zhixiang stated that with the large number of fifth-generation fighters such as the F-22 and F-35 in the US Air Force, far outnumbering the J-20, not to mention the yet-to-be formally commissioned J-35, the F-22 and F-35 hold a significant performance advantage.
“Although China often publicizes its air force strength, this is only in comparison to neighboring countries. When pitted against the US, the disparity in capabilities is vast,” he asserted.
Looking into the future, once Western next-generation air combat systems are finalized, it will significantly push China technologically, prompting them to strive to catch up as much as possible. However, the J-35 and H-20 currently developed by China fall between fourth and fifth-generation fighters. By the time China truly begins developing its next-generation fighters, the US and Europe will have surged ahead.