Amid Donald Trump’s inauguration as the President of the United States, senior officials from China and Vietnam have been engaging in continuous interactions. The leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, referred to China and Vietnam as a strategically significant “community of shared destiny.” Experts believe that Vietnam will not choose sides between the United States and China but will continue to pursue a dual-track policy. Furthermore, there is a high level of competition between China and Vietnam, indicating a significant gap from the so-called community of shared destiny.
—
Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20th. Xi Jinping had a phone call with the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam on January 15th, followed by exchanging congratulatory messages with the General Secretary and the President of Vietnam on the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam on January 18th. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also exchanged congratulatory messages with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on the same day.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping stated that “China and Vietnam are socialist friendly neighbors with strategic significance as a community of shared destiny.” Meanwhile, according to Vietnam News Agency, during the phone call with Xi Jinping, the Vietnamese General Secretary emphasized that Vietnam always considers the development of relations with China as a top priority based on independence, autonomy, multilateralism, and diversification.
—
Su Ziyun, Director of Taiwan’s Office of Defense Strategy and Resources, told Epoch Times that Beijing’s overall foreign policy has slightly softened starting this year, such as inviting the Japanese Foreign Minister for a visit, sending Vice Premier Han Zheng to attend Trump’s inauguration ceremony, and allowing Fujian tourist groups to visit Taiwan. “The main reason is China’s economic downturn, aiming to improve relations with neighboring countries to ease trade pressure. Additionally, Beijing is preparing to deal with potential new tariffs from the United States under the Trump administration.”
During his presidential campaign, Trump proposed imposing minimum tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and 60% or higher tariffs on Chinese imports. It is widely believed that a new version of the US-China trade war may escalate after Trump takes office. Vietnam is expected to benefit from the transfer of some of the global supply chain following trade frictions between China and the United States.
Su Ziyun believes, “The friendliness between China and Vietnam is more of an attitude; Vietnam will not truly align with the Chinese Communist Party. There is still competitiveness in their trade relationship, as Vietnam aims to replace some roles in Chinese manufacturing.”
—
Professor Ye Yaoyuan from the University of Saint Thomas in the United States expressed to Epoch Times that there are interactions between China and Vietnam, Japan can interact with China, South Korea can interact with China, and the United States can also have interactions with China. China dispatched Han Zheng to attend Trump’s inauguration, but interactions do not necessarily indicate a good relationship. It is diplomatic rhetoric; actions speak louder than words.
He pointed out that although China and Vietnam share some ideological similarities, in reality, they are far from being a community of shared destiny. Historically, there have been territorial disputes between China and Vietnam, leading to strained relations. The potential for conflict in their relationship, especially concerning sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea, has not been resolved over the past two to three decades.
—
In recent years, China and Vietnam have had disputes over the South China Sea issue. In late September of last year, a Vietnamese fishing boat clashed with Chinese law enforcement personnel near the Paracel Islands (referred to as the Xisha Islands by Vietnam). Vietnam claimed that its fishermen were attacked by 40 Chinese individuals with clubs, resulting in ten injuries. The Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Beijing’s violent actions against Vietnamese fishermen in disputed waters of the South China Sea as “brutal behavior.” Beijing, on the other hand, described the interception and inspection of the Vietnamese vessel as “professional and restrained,” stating that two Chinese law enforcement officers had their helmets broken and one was injured during the conflict.
According to Vietnam News Agency, during the phone call with Xi Jinping, Su Ziyun mentioned that both sides in Vietnam and China have instructed various departments to actively seek effective measures to better manage and resolve disputes while adhering to international law such as the United Nations Charter and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Ye Yaoyuan believes that like many Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam is discontent with Beijing’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea based on the “nine-dash line” and takes a relatively tough stance on this issue, with China and Vietnam aiming to minimize conflicts. The notion of a community of shared destiny is primarily driven by Xi Jinping as a response to what he perceives as Western imperialism. While Vietnam was a French colony in the past, its current mindset is entirely different, focusing on self-development and not necessarily resisting the United States.
—
The United States has considered Vietnam a core friendly country in establishing its Indo-Pacific strategy. Over the past few years, Vietnam has grown closer to the United States. In 2015, former General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Nguyen Phu Trong, made a historic visit to the United States. In 2023, then-US President Biden visited Vietnam. In late September 2024, Su Ziyun, the newly appointed General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, visited New York right after his visit to Beijing to attend the 30th anniversary celebration of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and the United States and met with Biden.
Su Ziyun stated that Vietnam still leans towards the United States and even procures military equipment from the US. Vietnam aims to maintain a peaceful relationship with China to ease conflicts in the South China Sea, but it also relies on the US, considering the United States its largest export market.
Ye Yaoyuan mentioned that Vietnam continues to pursue a dual-track policy and will maintain certain levels of relations with both the United States and China. In terms of security issues, Vietnam will align more closely with the US, seeking assistance against China in the South China Sea and territorial disputes in northern Vietnam. However, on economic matters, it is not possible to completely sever ties with China. Many factories have relocated from China to Vietnam, indicating a potential emergence of a new production chain.
“From Vietnam’s perspective, its economy is still developing, and it doesn’t choose sides; it follows the money. Compared to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, Vietnam maintains a high level of caution towards China (CCP),” he stated.